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2025 Stayers Hurdle

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  • Originally posted by Liverpoolchamp View Post
    Ye 4 errors,what would he have won by with 2 errors or even no errors? And again I’m old enough to remember backing Baracouda in this,am I old enough?
    But he made 4.
    not 2 not 0
    he's vulnerable
    And he was never bigger than 11/4,?

    Comment


    • Originally posted by AaronLad View Post

      But he made 4.
      not 2 not 0
      he's vulnerable
      And he was never bigger than 11/4,?
      I backed him at 4/1 Grand National weekend

      Comment


      • Just looking at the entries..... how many G1 animals are actually in this at the moment? 1?

        Home By The Lee
        Hewick (over fences)
        Mystical Power (as a novice)
        Crambo (Right handed?)
        Stellar Story (as a novice and he's gone chasing)
        Hewick (as a chaser)


        There are others I'm getting bored looking ...... but imagine Teahupoo gets injured.... this becomes an absolute free-for-all ... and that's before they supplement something mental




        I do think if I was having a bet now, from scratch, I'd chance Home By The Lee at 15/2

        I like AaronLad's enthusiasm for Lucky Place, but a future 3 time Stayers Hurdle winner, if you can't win a Coral Cup, is just not happening .... Langer Dan has him held for starters)

        I did take the related double though the night before I asked if you liked it, hadn't seen you put up at 90/1 but impressive, I'm at at 67/1





        This race is wank

        Back to the point I was making when I started haha .... Is Home by The Lee just not the most rock solid? Actual grade 1 hurdler, at a fair price?

        If you had to back 1 ..... Teahupoo to win or HBTL E/W?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          Just looking at the entries..... how many G1 animals are actually in this at the moment? 1?

          Home By The Lee
          Hewick (over fences)
          Mystical Power (as a novice)
          Crambo (Right handed?)
          Stellar Story (as a novice and he's gone chasing)
          Hewick (as a chaser)


          There are others I'm getting bored looking ...... but imagine Teahupoo gets injured.... this becomes an absolute free-for-all ... and that's before they supplement something mental




          I do think if I was having a bet now, from scratch, I'd chance Home By The Lee at 15/2

          I like AaronLad's enthusiasm for Lucky Place, but a future 3 time Stayers Hurdle winner, if you can't win a Coral Cup, is just not happening .... Langer Dan has him held for starters)

          I did take the related double though the night before I asked if you liked it, hadn't seen you put up at 90/1 but impressive, I'm at at 67/1





          This race is wank

          Back to the point I was making when I started haha .... Is Home by The Lee just not the most rock solid? Actual grade 1 hurdler, at a fair price?

          If you had to back 1 ..... Teahupoo to win or HBTL E/W?
          Kev, he was 5.
          it was his 5th run in his life
          has he not improved at 2m4f?
          yes by nearly a stone
          wait until he goes 3m, much more to come.
          He beat langer dan on most recent run

          My related double was only 59.5/1

          I could make a book, I could make profit on this race now, but that ain't me.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by AaronLad View Post

            Kev, he was 5.
            it was his 5th run in his life
            has he not improved at 2m4f?
            yes by nearly a stone
            wait until he goes 3m, much more to come.
            He beat langer dan on most recent run

            My related double was only 59.5/1

            I could make a book, I could make profit on this race now, but that ain't me.
            Yeah, it all could happen

            I'm pretty sure I got 67/1

            and fair enough, not making a book is the more sensible and standard way to go



            I see why you are bullish, and hope it pays offf




            I'm about 1/1000 that he doesn't win 3x Stayers so it's hardly worth going wild on

            Comment


            • This race does look ripe for a quality staying chaser who maybe isn’t a great jumper to be suplemented

              When would decisions need to be made around supplementing?

              Emmett tried with Noble Yeats, could it still happen with Corbetts, or is it too late in the season to revert?

              I still think IEP was the pre season best option to put it up to Teahupoo this festival

              Comment


              • Not that it matters much for this race but with a view to the Pertemps.

                Gowel Road +2 (148)

                Comment


                • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                  Not that it matters much for this race but with a view to the Pertemps.

                  Gowel Road +2 (148)
                  +4 for monmiral

                  Seems a bit harsh this

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by AaronLad View Post

                    +4 for monmiral

                    Seems a bit harsh this
                    That's horrendous, you finish 3l behind the winner and get 2lb more ?
                    That's either an error or a piss take, either way it's ended any hope of a Pertemps repeat...

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                      That's horrendous, you finish 3l behind the winner and get 2lb more ?
                      That's either an error or a piss take, either way it's ended any hope of a Pertemps repeat...
                      I think they've taken the form literally. 148 for Gowel Road. Monmiral finished nearly 3l back but carrying 4lb extra = a 1lb better performance = 149. Not that I agree with that rating ...

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post

                        I think they've taken the form literally. 148 for Gowel Road. Monmiral finished nearly 3l back but carrying 4lb extra = a 1lb better performance = 149. Not that I agree with that rating ...
                        Clearly found a different rule book for the International Hurdle....

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Liverpoolchamp View Post
                          Respect all opinions but if ye not with the fav then is it just not a case of trying to keep the thread alive with ifs buts and maybe’s? I watched last years race tonight and the fav made at least 4 errors and still won going away,am sorry but in the words of Willie himself GET STUCK IN!!
                          Or you can back a 20/1+ chance e/w and get more for your money coming 3rd than backing the favourite. Plus there is always the chance something goes wrong, either before or during the race.

                          Comment




                          • obviously i would say this...
                            But I think this bloke has this spot on.
                            Well worth a read, if you haven't already.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                              Just looking at the entries..... how many G1 animals are actually in this at the moment? 1?

                              Home By The Lee
                              Hewick (over fences)
                              Mystical Power (as a novice)
                              Crambo (Right handed?)
                              Stellar Story (as a novice and he's gone chasing)
                              Hewick (as a chaser)


                              There are others I'm getting bored looking ...... but imagine Teahupoo gets injured.... this becomes an absolute free-for-all ... and that's before they supplement something mental




                              I do think if I was having a bet now, from scratch, I'd chance Home By The Lee at 15/2

                              I like AaronLad's enthusiasm for Lucky Place, but a future 3 time Stayers Hurdle winner, if you can't win a Coral Cup, is just not happening .... Langer Dan has him held for starters)

                              I did take the related double though the night before I asked if you liked it, hadn't seen you put up at 90/1 but impressive, I'm at at 67/1





                              This race is wank

                              Back to the point I was making when I started haha .... Is Home by The Lee just not the most rock solid? Actual grade 1 hurdler, at a fair price?

                              If you had to back 1 ..... Teahupoo to win or HBTL E/W?
                              So 1/4 for the place, for a horse which has placed once out of three previous Stayers Hurdle attempts? No thanks! If I'm backing something for the places in the Stayers then I'll wait until the week of the festival when I know the ground, likely pace angle and see what's available at a bookie probably offering four places, as a nice 33/1 or bigger poke. There's invariably at least one that price which places, sometimes more, and sometimes they win. This is not a race where we need to risk antepost to snag a good price.

                              I'm slightly struggling with the argument that the race is wide open behind Teahupoo but that the best bet is the shortest priced horse from the rest of the market...

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Evesham Road View Post

                                So 1/4 for the place, for a horse which has placed once out of three previous Stayers Hurdle attempts? No thanks! If I'm backing something for the places in the Stayers then I'll wait until the week of the festival when I know the ground, likely pace angle and see what's available at a bookie probably offering four places, as a nice 33/1 or bigger poke. There's invariably at least one that price which places, sometimes more, and sometimes they win. This is not a race where we need to risk antepost to snag a good price.

                                I'm slightly struggling with the argument that the race is wide open behind Teahupoo but that the best bet is the shortest priced horse from the rest of the market...
                                Haha a fair comment

                                I suppose I just see him as rock solid and everything else is just a chance ... unless Teahupoo comes out and things get supplemented for it is what I was trying to make out....

                                I wouldn't back either now ..... but it was my question




                                I see it as Teahupoo 1 ..... Home By The Lee 2 ..... and then a big gap to the rest

                                but if Teahupoo doesn't run, HBTL won't be as far clear as something will get supplemented to ruin it


                                So in hindsight, HBTL a rubbish bet now


                                and also it's not impossible for anything to run well on the day .... Lisnager Oscar kind of thing
                                Last edited by Kevloaf; 28 January 2025, 03:13 PM.

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