2025 Stayers Hurdle

[Odin]

I think thats easy to understand. With no Con Hill and just SM to beat connections had nothing to lose going CH. He was a viable contender who despite winning over 3m LTO, had spent most of his career being campaigned over the minimum trip, so there was no better time to have a crack at SM, especially with Teahupoo as a solid fav for the stayers. We now know with the benefit of hindsight that SM is a fundamentally better two miler, and with the Con Hill vibes strong and Lossiemouth the new name on the block, connections would be praying to hit the frame let alone win the CH, so going up in trip makes sense. He could win the stayers but he's not winning a CH.

I agree that he could win Stayers, but not Champion Hurdle, but the bolded part is a strange comment no?

State Man had won 7/8 open age Grade 1s over 2m in the two years prior to the Champion Hurdle with a minimum RPR of 160, usually hitting a level around 168.
Irish Point had achieved maximum RPR of 160 over 3m, with no more than 154 over 2-2.5miles.

I agree there was no reason not to chance their arm there but I'm not sure it's hindsight to know that SM was a fundamentally better 2 miler? It also doesn't really answer the question about them having a really strong favourite in the Stayers so why not aim IP primarily at the Aintree Hurdle, where he's a Novice Grade 1 CD winner, with a "prep" in the Champion Hurdle, where he could be held up out the back, pick up 25k for coming fourth or stay on past one of the two horses that tries to beat CH as they tire for 50k?

I feel like this is one we are just gonna have to agree to disagree on though, which is fine by me - Irish Point is on my watchlist for the Stayers, but nothing more than that as things stand given the same connections have Teahupoo and I don't see why they'd throw two horses at the same race

[Craigy14]

Have to say I’m with Charlie on this one, I’d aim the 2 at the stayers if it were me. Irish Point is obviously more versatile trip wise and although not an open Grade 1 2m, still acquitted himself well in the Champion Hurdle imo.

As Charlie says what happens if we got a good ish ground featival? Teahupoo ‘may’ not run, we also know Irish Point is a lot more versatile ground wise or has certainly been treated like that. He runs in the stayers he even has a chance of winning so why not aim at that race? Strong fav and second fav for the stayers as it stands, a lot better than fourth or fifth fav for the champion hurdle with zero chance of winning should they all turn up. Two darts to win a Grade 1 is better than one dart?

[Spectre]

I did think high class would be interesting for this too but then I found a quote from Willie after his listowel win last season, “whatever he does over hurdles, I’d expect him to be better over fences.” Given he’s already 7 I’d imagine he’ll go chasing unless anyone’s heard any different?

That's the last I heard too, and I'm very sweet on him for The Brown Advisory. Take the Bartlett out when he ran much too free under Patrick, the rest of his form his top drawer, and 28/1 is much too big. Ridden a bit closer at Punchestown he may well have beaten Dancing City, and even then he still had Pipe winner Better Days Ahead and Bartlett winner Stellar Story behind him. Also of the four of them he looks to be a bigger scopier horse too.

[jaappleby01]

Regarding Irish Point, I had him going to the stayers last year and agree with Charlie that the lack of Constitution Hill made the Champion Hurdle too good of a chance to not take. Something that was always on my mind though was Jack Kennedy. If they both turned up for the same race, you'd imagine Jack would be on Teahupoo so how do you all think this would effect IP's chances? Is it maybe even slightly part of the reason they were separated last year? Only speculation, just interested to see what you brighter minds think.

[Odin]

Regarding Irish Point, I had him going to the stayers last year and agree with Charlie that the lack of Constitution Hill made the Champion Hurdle too good of a chance to not take. Something that was always on my mind though was Jack Kennedy. If they both turned up for the same race, you'd imagine Jack would be on Teahupoo so how do you all think this would effect IP's chances? Is it maybe even slightly part of the reason they were separated last year? Only speculation, just interested to see what you brighter minds think.

It's not as clearcut as it is for Willie I don't think, but Gordy alluded to it being a potential factor in where they send Irish Point after he won his Irish Grade 1 over 3m:

"Jack said he would have done more in a piece of work at home,. He was very professional, settled and done everything great. You are always worried stepping up to three miles. It's a nice race to win, we've a couple for that division now and it's a good problem to have. We've a great bunch of horses and Jack said to me there that all I have to do now is to make sure to split them up. He could be a horse that we'd keep for Aintree, we'll enjoy today and see what happens. The horse was very good and I thought it was a great performance. I thought he was so relaxed that he ticked all the boxes to stay but you are always nervous until he does it. Jack said he actually though halfway down the back that he was so relaxed but he said when he gave him a squeeze he leapt straight back on it."

I hadn't actually seen that full quote until this evening. Interesting that Aintree was on their mind there but they didn't go post Champion Hurdle this year - I guess that may have been due to Bob Olinger who could be a factor in where IP goes that I hadn't previously considered.

[charlie]

I agree that he could win Stayers, but not Champion Hurdle, but the bolded part is a strange comment no?

State Man had won 7/8 open age Grade 1s over 2m in the two years prior to the Champion Hurdle with a minimum RPR of 160, usually hitting a level around 168.
Irish Point had achieved maximum RPR of 160 over 3m, with no more than 154 over 2-2.5miles.

I agree there was no reason not to chance their arm there but I'm not sure it's hindsight to know that SM was a fundamentally better 2 miler? It also doesn't really answer the question about them having a really strong favourite in the Stayers so why not aim IP primarily at the Aintree Hurdle, where he's a Novice Grade 1 CD winner, with a "prep" in the Champion Hurdle, where he could be held up out the back, pick up 25k for coming fourth or stay on past one of the two horses that tries to beat CH as they tire for 50k?

I feel like this is one we are just gonna have to agree to disagree on though, which is fine by me - Irish Point is on my watchlist for the Stayers, but nothing more than that as things stand given the same connections have Teahupoo and I don't see why they'd throw two horses at the same race

I know we all knew that pre festival but it's not really that relevant IMO, I just meant it's now been confirmed in the eyes of connections that he aint beating SM over 2m and if he aint beating SM he aint beating Lossie or Con Hill either, so CH will be out providing they see sense, making this the option IMO.

Re not seeing why they'd throw two horses at the same race, there are lots of reasons why it makes sense. As I type out the reasons I actually think them both going makes far more sense than not tbh. I get that you split your best novice hurdlers and handicappers etc, but the 3m staying division live on its own.

1. If IP stays over hurdles what other cheltenham options does he have with that mark other than the stayers?
2. Why wait for Aintree when owners (barring PN) want Cheltenham winners over all else?
3. What happens if Teahupoo misfires like he did the previous season?
4. It's a horse race at the end of the day - what happens if Teahupoo has bad luck in running?
5. Aren't two bullets for a championship race better than one if you're an owner who has that luxury?
6. Do connections have to think about what one trainer might want over another?
7. Of the championship races is the stayers one you'd associate with lots of short price fav winners?

Some big points, some people might see as irrelevant points, but collectively they are fair questions to ask IMO.

[DenmanSacre]

I'd like to see Irish Point in a proper run 3m race before Cheltenham. The Leopardstown win last year was slowly run at the start and he was able to use his speed to beat the boats in the race. His only other try over 3m was at Auteuil when getting well beat.

The Stayers isn't one I'm particularly interested in from an ante post point of view though - Teahupoo is solid and the ones in behind don't have much between them.

[Odin]

I know we all knew that pre festival but it's not really that relevant IMO, I just meant it's now been confirmed in the eyes of connections that he aint beating SM over 2m and if he aint beating SM he aint beating Lossie or Con Hill either, so CH will be out providing they see sense, making this the option IMO.

Re not seeing why they'd throw two horses at the same race, there are lots of reasons why it makes sense. As I type out the reasons I actually think them both going makes far more sense than not tbh. I get that you split your best novice hurdlers and handicappers etc, but the 3m staying division live on its own.

1. If IP stays over hurdles what other cheltenham options does he have with that mark other than the stayers?
2. Why wait for Aintree when owners (barring PN) want Cheltenham winners over all else?
3. What happens if Teahupoo misfires like he did the previous season?
4. It's a horse race at the end of the day - what happens if Teahupoo has bad luck in running?
5. Aren't two bullets for a championship race better than one if you're an owner who has that luxury?
6. Do connections have to think about what one trainer might want over another?
7. Of the championship races is the stayers one you'd associate with lots of short price fav winners?

Some big points, some people might see as irrelevant points, but collectively they are fair questions to ask IMO.

I still think the fact that he ain't beating SM over 2m doesn't really matter given they went to Punchestown over 2m immediately after Cheltenham last year. I agree there's no chance he beats Constitution. I do think he could beat either SM/Lossie if either of them tries to beat Constitution and suffers because of it, but I don't think that will be a factor in connections decisions.

I suspect there are other factors at play, including wanting them split for or due to Jack Kennedy (not dissimilar to Townend with Mullins). But to address the questions above because debating is fun...

1) It's Champion Hurdle or Stayers if hurdling. Irish Point has a better chance of winning the Stayers no doubt.
2) What's your evidence that Robcour feel that way? If they feel that way, they surely should have sent IP to the Stayers last year when Teahupoo could have had all the issues you state below?
3 and 4) Same as above, if these were concerns about these things, why not send IP to the Stayers last year? There's no reason for them to be a concern this year if they weren't last year.
5) Yes, they are if that's what the owner wants. If it's a decision by a trainer/jockey, as per the Mullins/Townend dynamic, the split makes sense so that the best jockey can ride them both. This will affect one of the horses' chances of winning more than the other.
6) Honestly, I don't know. It could have been that Robcour decided they wanted to try and win the Aintree Grade 1 with Bob so they were pulling the strings? I doubt that scenario though.
7) The only point that I don't think has too much relevance given both horses would be short prices if turning up so it counts against both of them and if there's gonna be a big priced winner it doesn't matter which/both of Teahupoo/IP turn up as they'll both lose.

I stand by my original point though - it's a question of target. If you're looking for a single race you want to try and win over the season, you'd send both to Stayers. If there's other factors involved (trainer/jockey preferences for one, not being fully convinced he stays being another, owners other horses being good enough), surely you'd send him to the CD you know that he is a Novice Grade 1 over (Aintree 2m4f). If the latter is the case, the Champion Hurdle, being a less gruelling race, is a much better prior run than the Stayers and has significant opportunity to pick up some decent prize money as an added bonus

[charlie]

I still think the fact that he ain't beating SM over 2m doesn't really matter given they went to Punchestown over 2m immediately after Cheltenham last year. I agree there's no chance he beats Constitution. I do think he could beat either SM/Lossie if either of them tries to beat Constitution and suffers because of it, but I don't think that will be a factor in connections decisions.

I suspect there are other factors at play, including wanting them split for or due to Jack Kennedy (not dissimilar to Townend with Mullins). But to address the questions above because debating is fun...

1) It's Champion Hurdle or Stayers if hurdling. Irish Point has a better chance of winning the Stayers no doubt.
2) What's your evidence that Robcour feel that way? If they feel that way, they surely should have sent IP to the Stayers last year when Teahupoo could have had all the issues you state below?
3 and 4) Same as above, if these were concerns about these things, why not send IP to the Stayers last year? There's no reason for them to be a concern this year if they weren't last year.
5) Yes, they are if that's what the owner wants. If it's a decision by a trainer/jockey, as per the Mullins/Townend dynamic, the split makes sense so that the best jockey can ride them both. This will affect one of the horses' chances of winning more than the other.
6) Honestly, I don't know. It could have been that Robcour decided they wanted to try and win the Aintree Grade 1 with Bob so they were pulling the strings? I doubt that scenario though.
7) The only point that I don't think has too much relevance given both horses would be short prices if turning up so it counts against both of them and if there's gonna be a big priced winner it doesn't matter which/both of Teahupoo/IP turn up as they'll both lose.

I stand by my original point though - it's a question of target. If you're looking for a single race you want to try and win over the season, you'd send both to Stayers. If there's other factors involved (trainer/jockey preferences for one, not being fully convinced he stays being another, owners other horses being good enough), surely you'd send him to the CD you know that he is a Novice Grade 1 over (Aintree 2m4f). If the latter is the case, the Champion Hurdle, being a less gruelling race, is a much better prior run than the Stayers and has significant opportunity to pick up some decent prize money as an added bonus

Debating is fun! Great reply btw

1) we agree
2) that cheltenham is bigger than Aintree! This forum being the perfect example of that. We spend literally all year talking about cheltenham with Aintree as an afterthought
3) & 4) They didn't know he wouldn't beat SM. The CH looked more open than it did without CH. The shot made sense then, it doesn't now
5) GE isn't going to struggle for a good jockey.
6) im not sure either tbf, it was just a suspicion.
7) yeh I was just adding points there lol

I think winning the race is the most important thing and 2 bullets are better than one. There is no evidence to suggest the champion hurdle is less gruelling. If CH and SM and LM all showed up I'd argue quite strongly that trying to go with and beat them would far tougher on him than the stayers, but thats pure opinion

[Lobos]

I think he'll go chasing........

[Quevega]

I think they were genuinely in two minds last year and waiting on ground conditions etc, and then Constitution Hill pulled out at beginning of March and Elliot then started pushing for the Champion hurdle (March 4th) as he had a second favourites chance.
Owners agreed and the rest is history.

[fatherjohn]

bet365 have pushed out langer dan...in the atr stable tour skelton said stayers was the target...hes not far off the grade 1s from aintree. why isn't he shorter???

[ComplyOrDie]

bet365 have pushed out langer dan...in the atr stable tour skelton said stayers was the target...hes not far off the grade 1s from aintree. why isn't he shorter???

My opinion of Langer Dan is that he'll struggle to see out the trip at the top level.

I think the intermediate trip is his bag, and clearly he can go close at graded level over that trip as he proved at the back end of last season, but 3m round Cheltenham, a step too far for me.

[Lobos]

bet365 have pushed out langer dan...in the atr stable tour skelton said stayers was the target...hes not far off the grade 1s from aintree. why isn't he shorter???

Because we all know he'll run 2/3 stinkers and potentially end up in a Handicap again. Failing that he'll be pushed out for the Stayers. Would probably fall just short of Stayers winning class imo anyway.

[fatherjohn]

Because we all know he'll run 2/3 stinkers and potentially end up in a Handicap again. Failing that he'll be pushed out for the Stayers. Would probably fall just short of Stayers winning class imo anyway.

are there any precedents for handicappers just ignoring poor runs because they've had their pants pulled down enough times?? he's 160 so you'd think would need to be dropped 10+ lbs for handicaps to be a better option than grade 1/2 races? i find it hard to see that happening