If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated. Become a Patron!
Yeah stinking price now that's for sure, so will be interesting to see how it pans out. Hopefully both jump well and we get a fair result, as it will add some substance to it. Would hate if Lulamba won but Mondo didn't jump a twig, as that wouldn't reveal too much.
Yeah Maughreen's price is madness for a horse we've seen 1 career start from, and yet to get an entry.
It's just another FOMO bet for the vast majority, isn't it?
How anyone can think he should be a single figure price is beyond me, let alone the 4/1 fav.
It's just another FOMO bet for the vast majority, isn't it?
How anyone can think he should be a single figure price is beyond me, let alone the 4/1 fav.
Agreed but I’m sure plenty on here are on at fancy prices. Saint lucie is the one that I’ve been chipping away at since her debut, really looking forward to seeing her again at the DRF
Agreed but I’m sure plenty on here are on at fancy prices. Saint lucie is the one that I’ve been chipping away at since her debut, really looking forward to seeing her again at the DRF
Saint lucie will be one I'll be looking at for a price on WTAF.
It's just another FOMO bet for the vast majority, isn't it?
How anyone can think he should be a single figure price is beyond me, let alone the 4/1 fav.
There a lot of Triumph Hurdle horses been scattergun bet this year, with the hope of a payday from any one of them in March
Depends how people bet on the Festival, really.
Some seem to back plenty antepost on first show, and hope they snag what becomes "the right one" early for the hope of a big price celebration ftom ine of them (and that no Irish or GB flat horse come along to wreck the very successful French form angle we've had in recent years).
Could be FOMO as you say....
It's not a 33/1 payday if you've backed 10 losers and the 1 winner though. More like a 2/1 race win, if at level stakes.
Plenty of different ways to bet though.
I'm actually starting to think a small bit, of the "betting after declaration" punters who take the odds then, have smaller layouts/betting banks on the meeting and maybe overall a bigger ROI than many antepost punters.
Not saying that's for me, of course.
But it seems a more pure way of betting, and assessing you're ability to spot a winner, from one bet each rave.
● 1 bet in each Festival race, after decs.
● Put up on day of decs, each day for 4 days
I got sucked into the stencil hype and had a small bet on him, after that disaster i decided to leave the race alone, apart from mondo man WTAF bet yesterday.
There a lot of Triumph Hurdle horses been scattergun bet this year, with the hope of a payday from any one of them in March
Depends how people bet on the Festival, really.
Some seem to back plenty antepost on first show, and hope they snag what becomes "the right one" early for the hope of a big price celebration ftom ine of them (and that no Irish or GB flat horse come along to wreck the very successful French form angle we've had in recent years).
Could be FOMO as you say....
It's not a 33/1 payday if you've backed 10 losers and the 1 winner though. More like a 2/1 race win, if at level stakes.
Plenty of different ways to bet though.
I'm actually starting to think a small bit, of the "betting after declaration" punters who take the odds then, have smaller layouts/betting banks on the meeting and maybe overall a bigger ROI than many antepost punters.
Not saying that's for me, of course.
But it seems a more pure way of betting, and assessing you're ability to spot a winner, from one bet each rave.
● 1 bet in each Festival race, after decs.
● Put up on day of decs, each day for 4 days
Sounds like a FJ style Competition
Not sure I quite agree with that myself.
Like you say, everybody has their own way of antepost punting, whether that's strictly 1 per race (unlikely to be very successful, happy to be proven wrong?), having a couple per race from an early stage at nice prices and those that make a full book on the majority of the races like plenty do on here (hats off to those as I don't think I'd be able to do it that way)
There's plenty of us that have the cashout concession (which is a godsend that's for sure, and people with, are very lucky at that). That hugely affects the outlay of pts staked and returned before the festival even kicks off.
I'm going to give an example now as I feel it could be warranted, and maybe a little eye opener for those that question it.
My Triumph bets this year from when the markets were requested by myself around Mid August time, were as follows:
I jumped on Lulamba @ 33/1 when knowing early on he had been bought by Donnellys/Hendo to ensure I had one battling this side of the Irish Sea - 2.5pts @ 33/1.
I then rolled up WdH using 0.5pts as a last leg of a treble during early jumps campaign.
When WdH disappointed, I then went in again on him, 2pts @ 20/1.
During Xmas time I got out of Charlus when news was that he was going to be late out (if seen at all) which was stake returned, and after the Xmas g2, I got out of Murcia for 0.05pts profit, and in total lost 1.25pts on WdH. I also got on the WTAF special for Last Kingdom (1pt) when there was good word on here (maybe FOMO hit me on that one, as I didn't see much from the FR flat run to initially entice me, so maybe that was a bad play on my part as I'm not one to just follow blindly in the main, unless its from someone I trust and opinion I respect greatly. I duly didn't get sucked into the Stencil bandwagon as there was nothing out of the ordinary that I saw from the debut of the horse and likewise the what was current favourite East India Dock - didn't blow me away as I'm of the opinion that was pre season form almost and can he do that against proper winter horses)
*Probably best I didn't try to remember shit and calculations after a night shift without looking at the spreadsheet..
Also
2.94pts Sainte Lucie @ 33/1
1.5pts Hello Neightbour WTAF @ 40/1
2pts Larzac @ 40/1 NRNB (fully expect that back so won't include in figs.)
So looking at that:
Total Staked:
17.94pts
Total returned:
8.80pts
Live in play stake:
6.94pts
So all might not be quite what it seems, to those playing the Triumph market from early days.
The Triumph has been an absolute gold mine to many FJ's the past few seasons with the likes of Vauban, Lossiemouth, Majborough, Quilixios, Farclas, Defi De Seuil, Peace and Co etc. all doing the business for many on here with many of those horses being punted from the Summer prior and duly reaping the rewards because of it, so I say well done on those that continue to try find that next thing to share amongst the forum, as that's what we're all here to do isn't it?
Last edited by darlojim; 18 January 2025, 11:47 AM.
I got sucked into the stencil hype and had a small bet on him, after that disaster i decided to leave the race alone, apart from mondo man WTAF bet yesterday.
I'm still interested In Stencil be in the Fred Winter or Triumph,maybe neither as he does tend to kick tose hurdles out of his way, next season he'll make a very nice chaser, might be another who turns up for the Kauto Star a'la Il est Francais.
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Tweet
Comment