2025 Triumph Hurdle

[Runragged]

Hard to use the form stick to judge him, IMO. The 5th, Lanivtsi came out and won a C1 Juvenile Hurdle next time out.

The French form isn't looking great, IMO, it's a bit all over the place, but got to take each horse as an individual, and he could still be absolutely anything, given he's only had the one run.

Nearly all the 10/1 has gone, and increased, sustained support on the exchanges currently.

There is no part of any of his form that suggests he should be winning a Triumph where the lowest RPR to win in the last 10 years has been 147. Darlojim mentions the Crown Du Berlais and Six Figures form, but again, be realistic, Six Figures was beat 16 lengths by Sain D'Esprit and Nietzsche Has. Six Figures was 12 lengths ahead of Crown Du Berlais! Crown Du Berlais beat Lancier (6 1/2 lengths behind Lulamba) by 11 1/4 lengths. Fair enough if we are talking about the potential for a Fred Winter, or the cream of the 3yo/4yo crop in France, but we are not. And to cap it all he is a best price of 9/1 for this race. The bookmakers must be laughing as once again punters go in on another French juvenile with high profile connections. Wouldn't even be surprised if they are the ones generating the 'moves' to get people with FOMO to back a horse at far shorter a price than it should be. Fair enough if you have took a punt at 33/1 when prices come out but for me, his current price is a joke. Sorry I'm not what you all want to here but just trying to put a bit of realism to the situation.

[Carnage at Taunton]

There is no part of any of his form that suggests he should be winning a Triumph where the lowest RPR to win in the last 10 years has been 147. Darlojim mentions the Crown Du Berlais and Six Figures form, but again, be realistic, Six Figures was beat 16 lengths by Sain D'Esprit and Nietzsche Has. Six Figures was 12 lengths ahead of Crown Du Berlais! Crown Du Berlais beat Lancier (6 1/2 lengths behind Lulamba) by 11 1/4 lengths. Fair enough if we are talking about the potential for a Fred Winter, or the cream of the 3yo/4yo crop in France, but we are not. And to cap it all he is a best price of 9/1 for this race. The bookmakers must be laughing as once again punters go in on another French juvenile with high profile connections. Wouldn't even be surprised if they are the ones generating the 'moves' to get people with FOMO to back a horse at far shorter a price than it should be. Fair enough if you have took a punt at 33/1 when prices come out but for me, his current price is a joke. Sorry I'm not what you all want to here but just trying to put a bit of realism to the situation.

Hard to argue too much with that.
Certainly wish I had gone in originally, but a small go at 10/1 I am ok with. No idea how good he is but hopefully not long to find out. I don’t make a habit of backing these types, but just have this feeling he might just be impressive this weekend.
We shall see.
If he ain’t I won’t be too upset.
Just a gamble that may or may not pay off.

[Ray]

What will we do when willy bolts up at the DRF

[Quevega]

What will we do when willy bolts up at the DRF

wake up, and have some crunchy nut cornflakes.

[darlojim]

There is no part of any of his form that suggests he should be winning a Triumph where the lowest RPR to win in the last 10 years has been 147. Darlojim mentions the Crown Du Berlais and Six Figures form, but again, be realistic, Six Figures was beat 16 lengths by Sain D'Esprit and Nietzsche Has. Six Figures was 12 lengths ahead of Crown Du Berlais! Crown Du Berlais beat Lancier (6 1/2 lengths behind Lulamba) by 11 1/4 lengths. Fair enough if we are talking about the potential for a Fred Winter, or the cream of the 3yo/4yo crop in France, but we are not. And to cap it all he is a best price of 9/1 for this race. The bookmakers must be laughing as once again punters go in on another French juvenile with high profile connections. Wouldn't even be surprised if they are the ones generating the 'moves' to get people with FOMO to back a horse at far shorter a price than it should be. Fair enough if you have took a punt at 33/1 when prices come out but for me, his current price is a joke. Sorry I'm not what you all want to here but just trying to put a bit of realism to the situation.

How you can so adamantly knock a horse for winning as easy as he liked on his first racecourse appearance is harsh to say the least. You forget to mention that Crown Du Berlais was ahead of Six figures on their first meeting in the Pride of Kildare. Yeah Six figures turned that round next time out but how do we know CDB didn't underperform that day for whatever reason? CDB since went on to hack up in a class 2 after that so we've no idea if he didnt perform the 2nd day.

Six Figures was thought enough of to be thrown into the Cambaceres on his only 3rd start and performed with great credit in what was attritional conditions.

There is absolutely no standout performer in the market as of yet to think they're the next big thing so why couldn't a once raced juvenile make a serious impact? We know the Donnellys have been buying very well of late, and we know Nicky knows when he has a good one on his hands.

Lets see how he performs on the track before we critique a horse too much, we've no idea how ready he was on his debut.

Regarding the price, yeah its awful now, but there's been sustained support for the past week now on both the shop bookies and exchange, and those with a bigger price are now on for a 'free run' with the option to get out with no harm if they've taken the bet with a cashout bookie.

Would we have been saying the same things with Sir Gino last year? The form in behind them was hardly exceptional barring Kador performing well. Likewise would we have been saying the same thing with Majborough? He wouldn't have got within a country mile of a Triumph if you're strictly going on his FR form.

[darlojim]

What will we do when willy bolts up at the DRF

I am, still very much of the opinion, that with proper soft ground, he will be a nice horse, but the Triumph dreams are in turmoil.

[Ray]

I couldnt possibly think hes going to win the triumph, but he HAS to be alot better then what he has shown, if i were to guess, alot of willies ran flat over christmas and then his actual debut wasnt even THAT bad

wonder wot ricci thinks now wether he is still bullish or not

[Quevega]

I couldnt possibly think hes going to win the triumph, but he HAS to be alot better then what he has shown, if i were to guess, alot of willies ran flat over christmas and then his actual debut wasnt even THAT bad

wonder wot ricci thinks now wether he is still bullish or not

I'd expect they've moved on to Lucie instead.

[Runragged]

How you can so adamantly knock a horse for winning as easy as he liked on his first racecourse appearance is harsh to say the least. You forget to mention that Crown Du Berlais was ahead of Six figures on their first meeting in the Pride of Kildare. Yeah Six figures turned that round next time out but how do we know CDB didn't underperform that day for whatever reason? CDB since went on to hack up in a class 2 after that so we've no idea if he didnt perform the 2nd day.

He won nicely on debut, not disputing that, pulling clear after the last of his rivals. I'm disputing there is any line of form through that race to suggest the horse should be the price it is. Of the 7 horses to finish behind Crown De Berlais they had 10 previous defeats between them and only 1 hadn't raced before. Vice versa on if CDB underperformed behind Six Figures, then maybe Six Figures underperformed in the Pride Of Kildare. We don't know, but it could just be the natural progression of both horses.

Six Figures was thought enough of to be thrown into the Cambaceres on his only 3rd start and performed with great credit in what was attritional conditions.

A lot of horses are thought good enough to compete at a higher level. The fact is, he was found to be 16 lengths inferior to Sain D'Esprit and Nietzsche Has. I needn't go into the form line the latter provides from his Chepstow win.

There is absolutely no standout performer in the market as of yet to think they're the next big thing so why couldn't a once raced juvenile make a serious impact? We know the Donnellys have been buying very well of late, and we know Nicky knows when he has a good one on his hands.

Lets see how he performs on the track before we critique a horse too much, we've no idea how ready he was on his debut.

Indeed, and the market is all the better for it, barring these gambles on unproven French horses. It doesn't affect me as I don't get involved and it is not as though the bookmakers are pushing out those horses that do have the form. Yes, the Donnellys seem to have bought well, does that mean this will also be good, or does it throw up the possibility that this could be one that doesn't go on? A theoretical dilemma for you. What I would say is as a winner then they had two options, either compete him against his own age group for the rest of this season, or put him away till next year when he could prove tricky to place on the back of one win.

Regarding the price, yeah its awful now, but there's been sustained support for the past week now on both the shop bookies and exchange, and those with a bigger price are now on for a 'free run' with the option to get out with no harm if they've taken the bet with a cashout bookie.

Yes, if that's the way you play then fair enough. Not for me, but looks easy the way people seem to latch on and the bookmakers quickly cut prices. However, do you have any evidence of the "sustained support"? I know it's a bit petty but we have seen horses shorten in the betting with little reason to justify it. Has any bookmakers said they have taken a lot of money for him perhaps? I've had a look on Betfair and there has been £34710 traded on the race of which £2520 has been on Lulamba. Is that significant money or just people laying off, covering positions etc? As a comparison, Willy De Houelle has had £6112 traded on there.

Would we have been saying the same things with Sir Gino last year? The form in behind them was hardly exceptional barring Kador performing well. Likewise would we have been saying the same thing with Majborough? He wouldn't have got within a country mile of a Triumph if you're strictly going on his FR form.

Both horses won early season (Both in April) valuable races, with Sir Gino's being a listed race. There was time for the horses to develop and improve along with adjusting to the move etc. Lulamba won a race in October and has been with their new yard for just 3 months at most.


Time to let the horse do the talking now. Certainly added some interest on how he gets on! Good luck.

[darlojim]

Both horses won early season (Both in April) valuable races, with Sir Gino's being a listed race. There was time for the horses to develop and improve along with adjusting to the move etc. Lulamba won a race in October and has been with their new yard for just 3 months at most.


Time to let the horse do the talking now. Certainly added some interest on how he gets on! Good luck.

Do you not rate the Prix Isopani as a valuable race then?

A race that has farmed

Kandy Park
Kolokico
Juntos Ganamos
Intense Raffles
Iroko

Like I said previous, yeah there hasn't been much time for the horse to get used to surroundings, but Nicky Henderson wouldn't chance a horse if he didn't think they were ready for it, we know that by now, so he must be fairly happy at least.

**just noticed you've quoted my tweet and answered in that so will read that now haha..

1. I agreed that his price is poor now, totally not disputing that.

2. Nietzsche Has won in a canter in a race we seen barely any of so hard to judge through him.

3. TBF, bookies have pushed others out in support of Lulamba. EID, Hello Neighbour, Lady Vega, Palladium, Charlus and Mondo man had all been pushed out with different bookies, not across the board admittedly. No one knows for ABSOLUTE certain, whether or not imports will improve when they come to UK/IRE, none of us know how ready they were for debut, or whether they were drilled to death in the hope of a sale, this is part of the antepost process in punting imports, its a risk, that pays off for me personally more so than not.

4. FWIW Lulamba had pennies traded on him probably 2 weeks ago, so in relevant terms of him being prominent in the market, its a fair amount in a short amount of time.

[Mighty]

4. FWIW Lulamba had pennies traded on him probably 2 weeks ago, so in relevant terms of him being prominent in the market, its a fair amount in a short amount of time.

I don’t use the exchange, and curious about this. How much has actually been put on him in the last couple of weeks?

[darlojim]

I don’t use the exchange, and curious about this. How much has actually been put on him in the last couple of weeks?

2764 traded on him now

I know that maybe 2 weeks ago maybe 3 max, there was very very little

But as has been said already, theres only been 34k traded on the market as a whole so very little upto now.

He could well be challenging for favouritism soon on there

East India Dock avail. @ 7.4
Hello Neighbour avail. to be backed @ 7.6
Lulamba @ 8

[Runragged]

To be fair, on the Betfair podcast with their trader, he did say they have seen a steady stream of money for Lulamba recently hence the gradual decreases in price. So, could be some significance to it without knowing how much is fomo or a case of a very reactive market.

[Quevega]

Definitely yard money IMO
There's plenty of FOMO Bellends - but not to that level at this stage of season.

[ComplyOrDie]

Definitely yard money IMO
There's plenty of FOMO Bellends - but not to that level at this stage of season.

I'd be inclined to agree