2025 Triumph Hurdle

[Eggs]

Was just browsing the exchanges and just seen how short East India Dock is. Now favourite for the Triumph on there.

Just on RPR's, the win at Cheltenham was only 1lb better than Burdett Road last season. Visually looked very good, and he's slightly more stoutly bred than Burdett Road is (being by Golden Horn), so there may be some substance to it.

Can't decide whether I want to get involved or not.

…9-1 Hills specials.

[DenmanSacre]

RPR's are based on the ratings of the beaten horses, more importantly those that they believe have run to their form, because clearly not every horse runs to it's maximum ability. They also don't account for any improvement or the ease with which a horse wins by.

So, going over the first that you mentioned, Kaadem had a rating of 147 based on the run of Ventura Highway in 4th, a consistent chaser who has yet to get their head in front. They had run to a 109 previously and was given a 110 this time, despite being beat 20 lengths further by the winner. The winner Kaadem has improved, Ventura Highway has run to a very similar level. If the rating of Kaadem is increased then that would bring up the ratings of all the other horses. So, you would then be looking at a significant career best which is unlikely in a 33 length defeat.

Looked at Gran Dioso and Losange Bleu and again, both look fairly rated considering the ratings of the opposition. In Love in 4th behind Gran Dioso has improved 9lb on anything he had achieved previously or since while the 2nd and 3rd were just 1lb and 3lb off their career bests. The 5th was also 1lb off their best. Losange Bleu is harder to assess due to the prominence of the Irish horses. The problem is the 3rd horse July Flower, whose best previously was a 125 and therefore given a 136. They have thus assumed Hewick has run to the same level as he did the previous year which was a 146. It also see a career best rating for the 4th and 5th, unsurprising in the case of Mahler Mission who is lightly raced over hurdles having shown more over fences where general ratings tend to be about 10lb higher.

As to the standard of 3yos in France this year. There seems to be little consistency in the form with them beating each other. Nietzsche Has hasn't trained on, being beat the last three times. Kivala Du Berlais beat Sain D'Esprit by 2 1/2 lengths, who then reversed that form at the weekend. KDB had also been beat by Djin's who then finished 6th behind Sain D'Esprit. Hacker Du Berlais could be an interesting one after his win giving weight at the weekend though his improvement has come over the larger fences. We have not seen anything close to the level of Jigme this season, with Sain D'esprit likely to be given another rating in the mid 120s based on those in behind. According to the France Galop website then the three I mentioned are the top rated 3yo hurdlers this year, with Sain D'Esprit rated 75 on French official ratings.

Obviously it's very early days and so I have not got involved in the race but if you believe in the Racing Post Ratings being accurate in terms of the standard of the French 3yos then ratings do seem considerably lower this season compared to previous years.

I see what your saying but across the board the RPRs are too low. So if the beaten horses RPRs are too low, the winners RPRs are too low.

Kaadam is rated 79 in France, the equivalent to 158 at a 2:1 rate the UK use or higher using the 2.2:1 rate. Yet on RPRs he'd be 147. If he faced a 147 rated UK horse, he'd wipe the floor with them.

They'll likely have East India Dock rated higher than the grade 1 winner this year Sain Despirit(now rated 75 in France), which I'd put no faith in.

We'll see before Cheltenham if Owen's horses are better or as good as the French ones bought over here but history shows you the French horses are more precocious, and will have far too much speed for the likes of East India Dock. He was running over 2m on the flat as a 3yo so I'd be discounting him for the Triumph on that alone.

[ComplyOrDie]

…9-1 Hills specials.

Yeah, that's definitely not enough for me to get excited.

Probably missed out on him now.

[Runragged]

I see what your saying but across the board the RPRs are too low. So if the beaten horses RPRs are too low, the winners RPRs are too low.

Kaadam is rated 79 in France, the equivalent to 158 at a 2:1 rate the UK use or higher using the 2.2:1 rate. Yet on RPRs he'd be 147. If he faced a 147 rated UK horse, he'd wipe the floor with them.

They'll likely have East India Dock rated higher than the grade 1 winner this year Sain Despirit(now rated 75 in France), which I'd put no faith in.

We'll see before Cheltenham if Owen's horses are better or as good as the French ones bought over here but history shows you the French horses are more precocious, and will have far too much speed for the likes of East India Dock. He was running over 2m on the flat as a 3yo so I'd be discounting him for the Triumph on that alone.

Yes, it is clear ratings are out in one form or another. I like the RPRs because they are a continuation of form, so a direct correlation between how horses run. It also gives a chance to compare between countries somewhat. Official ratings are how the individual handicappers rate their own horses with no requirement to be comparable with any other country. This is why I prefer the RPRs.

It will be interesting to see how they go if any of the 3yos come over before the Festival.

[OverTheLast]

I understand the Irish angle regarding the Triumph. History says you're right. But I get a sense James Owen may be the new kid on the block with Juveniles and The Gredley Family investing their money in ex Flat horses. East India Dock, Liam Swagger and apparently the best of them is Lavender Hill Mob. Add in Burdett Road and you get a feel they are on the right track. Might be worth a thought.

I have a great line in to their yard. They think the world of Lavender Hill Mob and were trying to get on it last week for Triumph but no-one had it priced.

Owen and Gredley are very close friends and also knows as Skelton expands his horses wouldn’t get the same priority they get in Owen’s.

If anyone ever needs info re one of Owens horses I’ll be able to help

[Exar Essay]

I have a great line in to their yard. They think the world of Lavender Hill Mob and were trying to get on it last week for Triumph but no-one had it priced.

Owen and Gredley are very close friends and also knows as Skelton expands his horses wouldn’t get the same priority they get in Owen’s.

If anyone ever needs info re one of Owens horses I’ll be able to help

Any word on Ambiente Amigo? She was one I really liked the look of.

[OverTheLast]

Any word on Ambiente Amigo? She was one I really liked the look of.

Will ask and get back to you tomorrow

[DenmanSacre]

Simon Rowlands gives East India Dock a rating of 143.

On his scale, Sir Gino was 155 pre Cheltenham, Kargese 147 w the weight allowance, Burdett Road 146.

Timeform 136 - only behind Zanahiyr when looking at ratings pre December over the last few years.

Decent ratings to go with his RPR