2025 Triumph Hurdle

[Quevega]

Thanks Darlo
Yes I get that and I await seeing them.
I was just being lazy looking at the betting, but then I don’t really have much else to go on till I see them run.

I was impressed with the performances of east India dock, potters whatever and leau du sud.
However, I’ve not been tempted to bet this year as I think we have enough evidence in these divisions that’s been shown in the last 5 years or so that the Irish will likely be stronger by a margin.

the triumph and ballymore in particular have been Irish domination and the likely Irish arkle contenders look a stone better already.

wouldn’t rule them out though but just think that the percentage call is best to leave these early season shouts alone.

The point I’m making is we have enough evidence to avoid betting these and wait and see what the more likely winning trainers have got.

[Lobos]

Aside from the fav who ain’t come out yet, what else does he have at this moment ?
Not much in the betting that I can see.
While we await Mullins and Hendo possibilities, I am definitely watching how others perform, and I saw a darn good performance at the weekend at Cheltenham.

He'll have at least 10 he can throw at the race.

[darlojim]

Willie also has Larzac - but told he's unlikely to be seen this year.

[Lobos]

Willie also has Larzac - but told he's unlikely to be seen this year.

Make that 9 then.....

[Carnage at Taunton]

He'll have at least 10 he can throw at the race.

Yes I don’t doubt he has shed load of juveniles
But like everyone else I have no idea who good they are.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I was impressed with the performances of east India dock, potters whatever and leau du sud.
However, I’ve not been tempted to bet this year as I think we have enough evidence in these divisions that’s been shown in the last 5 years or so that the Irish will likely be stronger by a margin.

the triumph and ballymore in particular have been Irish domination and the likely Irish arkle contenders look a stone better already.

wouldn’t rule them out though but just think that the percentage call is best to leave these early season shouts alone.

The point I’m making is we have enough evidence to avoid betting these and wait and see what the more likely winning trainers have got.

I understand what you are saying and point you are making
Nevertheless if I see a juvenile trained in the uk or indeed anywhere, that puts on a performance I like I will still look at the price available and if I like the price I may well back it.
But yes, this is the Triumph and its folly to be too confident this early with so many yet to be seen.
My bets will reflect that.

[Lobos]

Yes I don’t doubt he has shed load of juveniles
But like everyone else I have no idea who good they are.

Like nearly every other year, they'll be very good and likely better than what the English come up with (Nicky aside).

[BuckingThe Trend]

I understand the Irish angle regarding the Triumph. History says you're right. But I get a sense James Owen may be the new kid on the block with Juveniles and The Gredley Family investing their money in ex Flat horses. East India Dock, Liam Swagger and apparently the best of them is Lavender Hill Mob. Add in Burdett Road and you get a feel they are on the right track. Might be worth a thought.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Like nearly every other year, they'll be very good and likely better than what the English come up with (Nicky aside).

Likely……I can see that reasoning
But not definite
Winners out there somewhere , I will look everywhere.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I understand the Irish angle regarding the Triumph. History says you're right. But I get a sense James Owen may be the new kid on the block with Juveniles and The Gredley Family investing their money in ex Flat horses. East India Dock, Liam Swagger and apparently the best of them is Lavender Hill Mob. Add in Burdett Road and you get a feel they are on the right track. Might be worth a thought.

That’s the sort of post that gets me thinking, like it and to be honest it’s interesting and I can see why you say that.

[Runragged]

I understand the Irish angle regarding the Triumph. History says you're right. But I get a sense James Owen may be the new kid on the block with Juveniles and The Gredley Family investing their money in ex Flat horses. East India Dock, Liam Swagger and apparently the best of them is Lavender Hill Mob. Add in Burdett Road and you get a feel they are on the right track. Might be worth a thought.

I am leaning towards agreeing to this. I think some point soon a very good ex flat horse will win the Triumph and it could be this year. I don't believe this years crop of ex French hurdlers are as good as previous years. Doing a comparison then Majborough last year got an RPR of 106 for a win in April, Kargese got 111 for a win in April and 113 for win in May. Sir Gino and Salvator Mundi 112 and 110 from April also. Looking at those towards the head of the betting for this year that originated in France. Willy De Houelle 101 in March and 103 in defeat in April. Stencil 91 in May and 104 in October. Kurasso Blue a 90 in September. Olympic Story had just a 101 in April, improved racing through the Autumn with 117 and 113 whilst awaiting the rating from Saturdays runner up position. However, 117 is still relatively low rating for a graded race in France in September.

For some further context, Lossiemouth had a 124 in April, Gala Marceau 120 and 127 in March and April. Zenta an exception in 3rd that year with a RPR of 101 in France in September. 2021 Quilixios had an RPR of 131 from the 2nd March. Haut En Couleurs 128 1st October.

For me, Willie would have to get significant improvement out of Willy to win this year and the price doesn't fairly reflect that now. Better value in my view looking away from the French hurdlers.

As a sidenote when researching this, I see Nietzsche Has has been retired to stud following his 2nd place finish yesterday.

[DenmanSacre]

Take no notice of RPRs and French racing - they are nonsense across all French National Hunt. They only had Kaadam at 147 before this weekend, Gran Diose 151 and Losange Bleu at 144 which is laughably bad. The British and Irish will go over next May, lose and all magically run career worsts.

Nietzsche Has was rated 71.5 before this weekend, same for Sain Despirit in France. Jigme was 76 last year but a class act and the ones this year are probably around the level of the ones in behind him, maybe a bit ahead.

IMO this group of juveniles in France were pretty good as a whole. At least one of them will be better than anything James Owen has and incredibly likely several of them are. Whichever one he thinks is best will end up losing pre Festival to Lulamba, Live Conti or Maitre En Science (rated 66.5 in France) and I think Jim mentioned the Boodles potentially for him but I think Derham might see if he's better.

[Runragged]

Take no notice of RPRs and French racing - they are nonsense across all French National Hunt. They only had Kaadam at 147 before this weekend, Gran Diose 151 and Losange Bleu at 144 which is laughably bad. The British and Irish will go over next May, lose and all magically run career worsts.

Nietzsche Has was rated 71.5 before this weekend, same for Sain Despirit in France. Jigme was 76 last year but a class act and the ones this year are probably around the level of the ones in behind him, maybe a bit ahead.

IMO this group of juveniles in France were pretty good as a whole. At least one of them will be better than anything James Owen has and incredibly likely several of them are. Whichever one he thinks is best will end up losing pre Festival to Lulamba, Live Conti or Maitre En Science (rated 66.5 in France) and I think Jim mentioned the Boodles potentially for him but I think Derham might see if he's better.

RPR's are based on the ratings of the beaten horses, more importantly those that they believe have run to their form, because clearly not every horse runs to it's maximum ability. They also don't account for any improvement or the ease with which a horse wins by.

So, going over the first that you mentioned, Kaadem had a rating of 147 based on the run of Ventura Highway in 4th, a consistent chaser who has yet to get their head in front. They had run to a 109 previously and was given a 110 this time, despite being beat 20 lengths further by the winner. The winner Kaadem has improved, Ventura Highway has run to a very similar level. If the rating of Kaadem is increased then that would bring up the ratings of all the other horses. So, you would then be looking at a significant career best which is unlikely in a 33 length defeat.

Looked at Gran Dioso and Losange Bleu and again, both look fairly rated considering the ratings of the opposition. In Love in 4th behind Gran Dioso has improved 9lb on anything he had achieved previously or since while the 2nd and 3rd were just 1lb and 3lb off their career bests. The 5th was also 1lb off their best. Losange Bleu is harder to assess due to the prominence of the Irish horses. The problem is the 3rd horse July Flower, whose best previously was a 125 and therefore given a 136. They have thus assumed Hewick has run to the same level as he did the previous year which was a 146. It also see a career best rating for the 4th and 5th, unsurprising in the case of Mahler Mission who is lightly raced over hurdles having shown more over fences where general ratings tend to be about 10lb higher.

As to the standard of 3yos in France this year. There seems to be little consistency in the form with them beating each other. Nietzsche Has hasn't trained on, being beat the last three times. Kivala Du Berlais beat Sain D'Esprit by 2 1/2 lengths, who then reversed that form at the weekend. KDB had also been beat by Djin's who then finished 6th behind Sain D'Esprit. Hacker Du Berlais could be an interesting one after his win giving weight at the weekend though his improvement has come over the larger fences. We have not seen anything close to the level of Jigme this season, with Sain D'esprit likely to be given another rating in the mid 120s based on those in behind. According to the France Galop website then the three I mentioned are the top rated 3yo hurdlers this year, with Sain D'Esprit rated 75 on French official ratings.

Obviously it's very early days and so I have not got involved in the race but if you believe in the Racing Post Ratings being accurate in terms of the standard of the French 3yos then ratings do seem considerably lower this season compared to previous years.

[ComplyOrDie]

Was just browsing the exchanges and just seen how short East India Dock is. Now favourite for the Triumph on there.

Just on RPR's, the win at Cheltenham was only 1lb better than Burdett Road last season. Visually looked very good, and he's slightly more stoutly bred than Burdett Road is (being by Golden Horn), so there may be some substance to it.

Can't decide whether I want to get involved or not.

[Craigy14]

Was just browsing the exchanges and just seen how short East India Dock is. Now favourite for the Triumph on there.

Just on RPR's, the win at Cheltenham was only 1lb better than Burdett Road last season. Visually looked very good, and he's slightly more stoutly bred than Burdett Road is (being by Golden Horn), so there may be some substance to it.

Can't decide whether I want to get involved or not.

Surely wait and see what Henderson (or another UK trainer) unleashes between now and trials day at Cheltenham in Jan mate.

Henderson surely pitch any decent sort there as he did last year with Sir Gino and I’d imagine James Owen would do the same, for East India or something else if looking better than that one.