2025 Triumph Hurdle

[Carnage at Taunton]

I’d say that EID form came out favourably yesterday , but I still find it difficult to call between the imo two likeliest winners of the Triumph.
Both have looked impressive, EID has had more opportunities to impress and has done that well.
Lulamba impressed too in his race, so professional for an inexperienced one.
They should both improve by March, how much each does none of us know!!
Too close to call for me, and can’t wait to find out.

[The Giant Bolster]

I feel that Mondoman pulled so hard against Lulamba that I wouldn't use that run as a true bit of form one way or the other. Yesterday didn't hurt East India Dock's form but I also wouldn't use it as something to knock Lulamba with either.

[Runragged]

What's so good with the east india dock form?

He hasnt beaten 1 horse that will be lining up in a Triumph

Stencil got an RPR of 132 for his defeat to EID, the same mark Lulamba got for winning. If he was entered in the Triumph then he would be joint third best, behind EID and Murcia (With the allowance), level with Lulamba, Hello Neighbour and Galileo Dame (with the allowances). Favourite for the Fred Winter even though no weights are out, the only reason he isn't going Triumph is that eid smashed him, but on ratings he would warrant a place in the race.

[Saxon Warrior]

The Triumph has become a different race in recent times, since the Boodles became an open-ended Handicap with no maximum ratings for entry.

Not long ago, since Quilixios won the DRF Grade 1, yet Gordon was thought to be going to run him off topweight in the Boodles, so Zanahiyr could win the Triumph, and Gordon could win both races.

Which couldve led to a change in rules for the Boodles - if only Gordon hadnt sat on that dead horse and lost his licence for that Festival.

Henry took over as Quilixios's trainer (while Gordon was banned, and losing 6 Festival winners that year) and Henry pointed him at the Triumph, and won it, with Zanahiyr trailing back in 4th.

Willie has filled the race up the last 2 years, with 7 runners both times, some with big chances or those ones he wants to benefit from experiencing the Festival, early in their careers.

There's often a complete lack of collateral form between GB and IRE, with the occasional Irish runner at Cheltenham Trials Day trained by Joseph or Gordon, giving us a glimpse of how the Irish and British may match up.

This year there wasn't one of those, so we are left to work out ourselves who we prefer to side with and possibly try and favour their form over the competition.

Or just back several with different form strands. We pay our money and make our choices.

I think the timefigure folk are mad keen on East India Dock, and you can see why given his 2 runs at Cheltenham on the 2 different tracks.

The way he dismantled the opposition both times would drive higher ratings and speed figures than the Irish Grade 1 and 2 at Leopardstown and those bunched finishes.

We usually get a Triumph run at a decent clip which should sort out those that can go with that pace and those that can't.

I don't think we can dismiss any of the different strands of key form, just look forward to enjoying seeing them all pull together on Festival Friday and hope they all arrive there fit and well.

This can be a time when some can arrive at decisions on their Festival bankers, and hype up a bit (maybe) that a horse, or horses, can't be beaten.

The closer to the Festival the more talk of bankers, naps and certainties, mount up.

In NH racing in the biggest Grade 1 races, and in competitive Handicaps, plenty can happen to change the dynamics of a race and it's outcome.

It's NH racing at the highest level, and uncertainty is part of the heady mix of excitement that makes these 4 days special.

I never count anything as a 'certainty' or a 'given' for these 4 days, though of course I have higher hopes for some I've backed, than others, but some can surprise and some can disappoint.

That's why I hope to end up with 2 or 3 of my picks, getting to each of the races, in those Grade 1's, because cover is needed in case the Favs/top picks are beaten in whatever ways could occur.

El Fab and Stellar Story are two that I backed last year, that worked the opposite way round than I expected them too.

I'm sure that there will be similar again this year, and that I don't know who they'll be.

Doesn't matter whose favourite for races, they still have to arrive there on the day, and then go out and perform.

That's why I'm captivated by it all.

[Eggs]

….Mullins;

’Blue Lemons won the maiden hurdle and it was nice to have a Blue Point running like that over hurdles. He'll probably make his way to Cheltenham for the Triumph Hurdle.’

[Saxon Warrior]

….Mullins;

’Blue Lemons won the maiden hurdle and it was nice to have a Blue Point running like that over hurdles. He'll probably make his way to Cheltenham for the Triumph Hurdle.’

He will have plenty in that race Eggs

His and his owners, buying, have driven things that way, plus he has this new method of giving some 4yos time, after their juvenile season, and bringing them back later for a 5yo end of season campaign.

The "Lossie" delayed start to the 2nd season, type of thing.

Fascinating to see things evolve like this.

[darlojim]

Stencil got an RPR of 132 for his defeat to EID, the same mark Lulamba got for winning. If he was entered in the Triumph then he would be joint third best, behind EID and Murcia (With the allowance), level with Lulamba, Hello Neighbour and Galileo Dame (with the allowances). Favourite for the Fred Winter even though no weights are out, the only reason he isn't going Triumph is that eid smashed him, but on ratings he would warrant a place in the race.

I've stated my opinion on ratings previous so won't go back over that, but Stencil weren't out to get anywhere near the last day I can tell you that.

And regarding his odds for the Boodles, his performance rating told people what he's roughly going to get, and a JP recruit isn't going to be lost amongst punters as it hasn't been.

[DenmanSacre]

Ratings can be ok in some circumstances (I'd only use RPRs for the Bumper personally). For the Triumph and Fred Winter, they're nigh on useless IMO. You can either go off RPRs and think Stencil put up the same performance as Lulamba, or watch them both and hopefully you'd see which one is better.

[Runragged]

Ratings can be ok in some circumstances (I'd only use RPRs for the Bumper personally). For the Triumph and Fred Winter, they're nigh on useless IMO. You can either go off RPRs and think Stencil put up the same performance as Lulamba, or watch them both and hopefully you'd see which one is better.

Ratings are relative. RPR's don't come with the Timeform 'P'. Therefore Lulamba's 144 and Hello Neighbours 144 can both be marked up as it is winning form, whereas Stencil was in defeat. Certainly I find juvenile form the least comparable when it comes to ratings as horses can improve no end at a young age. I was just highlighting that on ratings Stencil would warrant a place in the Triumph. If we look at it another way, the average top RPR of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the Triumph is 142, 140 & 138 according to Saxon Warriors excellent analysis, with averages of 150, 146 and 145 respective in the race itself for the 1st 3 positions. Clearly, if Stencil was a non trier as has been suggested then he is also capable of a much higher rating, backing up my argument that EID has beat a horse good enough to compete in a Triumph.

[darlojim]

Clearly, if Stencil was a non trier as has been suggested then he is also capable of a much higher rating, backing up my argument that EID has beat a horse good enough to compete in a Triumph.

Orr that the ratings from that race are too high?

Stencil beat 1 horse home the time before his 'PB' 2nd

[Runragged]

Orr that the ratings from that race are too high?

Stencil beat 1 horse home the time before his 'PB' 2nd

Possibly, but the race wasn't rated through Stencil, he was the one imponderable who couldn't be used as a guide. The race has been judged through Torrent, a horse who had shown a very consistent level of form, with his 4 previous RPRs of 108, 111, 111 & 111, the last twice seeing him place in grade 2 contests. He was given a rating of 109 for this run so a slight drop off. You also had a 4th who had run to ratings of 107, 107, 111 & 115 prior to this. He was also given a rating of 109. Finally, the 5th horse had dead heated with the 4th on their previous run over the same course and distance (Same RPR of 115) and was only 3 1/4 lengths behind the rival here. He got an RPR of 107 and a drop off of 8lb from his last run. So, even though the 3rd, 4th and 5th had proven to be extremely consistent, RPRs still had them running worse than previous but therefore is the line used to get the ratings for EID & Stencil.

Obviously like all ratings and form, they can be used to suit the narrative you want. Whilst I could use those ratings to show how much better EID is, you could easily argue that the ratings of Torrent, Teriferma and Quantock Hills were too high to begin with on all their previous runs. Are British horses rated too high on RPR's yet the French are too low? The latter is definitely true (I see Lulamba has been changed on his French debut, now up to 103. I'm sure that was in the low 90s before) whilst like I said before, RPRs don't account for manner and style of victories, just rating the bare form of the result.

Lets just hope all the horses make it fit and well as it could be one of the contests of the Festival!

[darlojim]

Possibly, but the race wasn't rated through Stencil, he was the one imponderable who couldn't be used as a guide. The race has been judged through Torrent, a horse who had shown a very consistent level of form, with his 4 previous RPRs of 108, 111, 111 & 111, the last twice seeing him place in grade 2 contests. He was given a rating of 109 for this run so a slight drop off. You also had a 4th who had run to ratings of 107, 107, 111 & 115 prior to this. He was also given a rating of 109. Finally, the 5th horse had dead heated with the 4th on their previous run over the same course and distance (Same RPR of 115) and was only 3 1/4 lengths behind the rival here. He got an RPR of 107 and a drop off of 8lb from his last run. So, even though the 3rd, 4th and 5th had proven to be extremely consistent, RPRs still had them running worse than previous but therefore is the line used to get the ratings for EID & Stencil.

Obviously like all ratings and form, they can be used to suit the narrative you want. Whilst I could use those ratings to show how much better EID is, you could easily argue that the ratings of Torrent, Teriferma and Quantock Hills were too high to begin with on all their previous runs. Are British horses rated too high on RPR's yet the French are too low? The latter is definitely true (I see Lulamba has been changed on his French debut, now up to 103. I'm sure that was in the low 90s before) whilst like I said before, RPRs don't account for manner and style of victories, just rating the bare form of the result.

Lets just hope all the horses make it fit and well as it could be one of the contests of the Festival!

It's a fair enough argument mate, but when horses are beaten as far as they were in behind, it surely must be hard to put figures on accurately.

One things for sure, the split between Lulamba and EID fans will make a race to savour. Hopefully both make it and run to form.

Cue an absolute rag going by the 2 of em

[That Horse]

Cue an absolute rag going by the 2 of em

Mondo man from the front

[Eggs]

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2025/February/23/bacchanalian-to-stay-at-home-rather-than-go-to-cheltenham

[Saxon Warrior]

Possibly, but the race wasn't rated through Stencil, he was the one imponderable who couldn't be used as a guide. The race has been judged through Torrent, a horse who had shown a very consistent level of form, with his 4 previous RPRs of 108, 111, 111 & 111, the last twice seeing him place in grade 2 contests. He was given a rating of 109 for this run so a slight drop off. You also had a 4th who had run to ratings of 107, 107, 111 & 115 prior to this. He was also given a rating of 109. Finally, the 5th horse had dead heated with the 4th on their previous run over the same course and distance (Same RPR of 115) and was only 3 1/4 lengths behind the rival here. He got an RPR of 107 and a drop off of 8lb from his last run. So, even though the 3rd, 4th and 5th had proven to be extremely consistent, RPRs still had them running worse than previous but therefore is the line used to get the ratings for EID & Stencil.
!

You’re right, the 3rd and 4th had solid form and they were used to produce the race ratings, and Stencil and East India Dock were far too good for them.

I also check out Timeform ratings too, the base rating rather than the race by race rating,

They’ve got

TIMEFORM up to 16th Feb inclusive

East India Dock 147p
Nietzsche Has 145 (retired)

Hello Neighbour 137p
Gibbs Island 134p
Stencil 133
Naturally Nimble 132p
Sauvignon 132
Willy De Houelle 131
Sony Bill 130

Lulamba 129P
Galileo Dame 129p (+ 7lb allowance = 136p)
Lady Vega Allen 128p (+7lb allowance = 135p)

Bacchanalian 127 (before todays easy win)
Murcia 127 (+7lb allowance = 134)
Saint Lucie 127 (+7lb allowance = 134)

Live Conti 125P