2025 Triumph Hurdle

[ComplyOrDie]

I’d say it’s people thinking it’s another Sir Gino, coupled with quite a few disappointments from WPM.

Does make you wonder if it’s yard money as well as bookies running scared though, only Willy De Letdown contracted as quick for WPM as a triumph hype horse if I recall right.

Yeah, definitely some putting 2 & 2 together.

Given the exchange amounts, coupled with bookmaker cuts, I'd imagine there has to be something in it from the yard. They don't have another obvious Triumph horse either, I don't believe, so pinning there hopes on this one.

The good thing for Nicky is he probably has two of the quickest 2 mile NH horses currently in training in his yard, to at least have something comparable. We know Sir Gino & Constitution Hill work together and there's no way the Donnelly's would be against a potential Triumph winner working with one of their own (Sir Gino) if they felt he was good enough, so they can ultimately get a good gauge on it, you'd think.

[somer1]

Had a nibble @ 10s with PP this morning with winnings from yesterday racing so free bet basically. Wasnt many firms showing 10s though

[Carnage at Taunton]

Had a nibble @ 10s with PP this morning with winnings from yesterday racing so free bet basically. Wasnt many firms showing 10s though

Yeah, after further thought I’ve done the same
Can always top up a bit if I like what I see.
And can still look at possible wtaf.

[Exar Essay]

We had all this with Willy de hype!!
Luckily I did not act!!
Im at Kempton Saturday
Will take a close look at him before the race, but its hard for me to back Juveniles before they have run.
May chance it with him?
Hes with the right trainer jumping wise, but its still a risk.
WTAF may be the way to go for me.

I think this may be a better bet than Willy was before his debut. Two reasons, firstly Lulamba is still a bigger price, 10s compared with 6s. Secondly, we've now seen most of the competition and none are blowing us away. So we know it only takes a good performance, rather than exceptional, to propel him into favouritism.

[Black Dog]

He looked like another big scopey thing when winning his debut at Auteuil under hands and heels. He looked green enough, and quickly drew away putting big gaps back to his rivals,I'd say he's sure to improve bundles and have others have said he's with the right trainer on the jumping side of things. Having Sir Gino to work with (?) may give them a rough idea as to where they are with him,and another stunning looking horse just may be SG #2. The money suggests he could be a good un.

[Rooster Booster]

Blimey if we carry on at this rate we will have convinced ourselves he’s the next Arkle by lunchtime

[Runragged]

Happy to let Lulamba pass until after the race. He was big at all his hurdles, jumping like a chaser already. The form is moderate considering his win was in October. Don't know exactly when sold and subsequently moved yards but best case scenario is he has spent 2 months at the Henderson yard, which isn't very long to settle in considering he has come over from France and often French horses take a fair bit of time to adjust to the different environment and training regime. Yes, the division doesn't look overly strong but to me there seems to be a lot of risks with regard the horse considering his price.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Blimey if we carry on at this rate we will have convinced ourselves he’s the next Arkle by lunchtime

I’m searching for Queen Mum prices!!

[darlojim]

What you seen or heard to think that Jim?

Certainly not heard anything on him mate, been no word from the stable regarding him.

But my reading of his debut -

He was steady enough over the first 4 or 5, he got in tight to hurdle 2&3 and just popped them which was good to see. Made a bit of a mess at the one rounding the bend away from the stands, but when allowed to stride on down the back and with clear sight of his hurdles he jumped well enough. Have to remember this was his first day at school so very happy to give him benefit of the doubt with the potential his jumping could improve. When getting racing, he jumped the last 2 hurdles well enough without being electric and when the jockey got stuck into him after the last, quickly put daylight between himself and his rivals to win very well. One thing I would say is the jockey on him for his debut, Florent Bayle, I don't rate him one bit, hes an awful rider (imo of course) so noodle arms Nico will get a better tune out him for sure

Now looking at the form of the race - As it was a late 3yo race, not too many have been seen since, but from those that have:

Lancier - Beaten 6 1/4L into 3rd by Lulamba has since gone on to finish 3rd again to Crown Du Berlais who bolted up to win his maiden. CDB had previously finished 2nd to Six Figures who was considered good enough to contest the Prix Cambaceres and on debut CDB had that all important (to me anyway) Pride of Kildare form behind Live Conti, Larzac et al.

Le Divin Enfant - Beaten 10L by Lulamba into 4th has been purchased by Willie Mullins and the Mastersons. That was his 2nd career start, the first was he was beaten just under 5L by Lek Will on the flat at Vichy. Lek Will should have won his hurdles debut just the other day but for making a hash of the last hurdle.

Lanivtsi - Beaten 18L by Lulamba into 5th was very well fancied to get off to a winning start on debut but was found wanting. He has since gone onto to win his maiden beating a horse that has form again tied in with the Pride of Kildare (L'alibi beaten 7L by Live Conti) before a 3rd on his chase debut against more experienced rivals.

As he was a late purchase by the Donnellys, I'm glad to see he's out relatively quickly after coming across, as he must be pleasing Nicky who we know wouldn't be taking any chances with them if he doesn't have to. We all seen how Sir Gino jumped on his British debut at Kempton as Nicky just expected him to be able to jump so you'd like to think he's learnt from that and will have given Lulamba a few schooling sessions to sharpen up.

All in all, I wouldn't be backing him at the price he is now as that's just gone mad, but we know how these markets are nowadays and things just seem to snowball. Hopefully a few took a chance when I highlighted him @ 33s and can relax abit and wait for his debut now to see how he goes. I would say this division is probably the one where cashout is most important to get out of bets as if you're on early enough you can get out of plenty of bets without any damage as they'll have likely shortened before their UK/IRE racecourse debut.

**Looking at the British division and why I think he'll be the best

- East India Dock - Yeah he looked impressive, but it was early season form and I just don't trust it, whether I'm right or wrong on that only time will tell.

- Palladium - I don't expect to see him now until a flat campaign, and if he does show up, people are living off a German win in a bog, what about when he blew out on his next start?

- Mondo Man - Again, very good flat form, but with him being with Gary Moore, I'd have thought we would have seen him in a maiden by now and then he could have gone onto the Victor Ludorum @ Haydock as he has used in the past for horses like Porticello

- Sauvignon - Be good to see if he gets dec'd at Huntingdon or Kempton against Lulamba. He's nice enough form, backed up by a good run by Sony Bill in the Xmas g2 @ Leopardstown but I don't see him as a strong enough stayer over a fast 2m on the new course.

- Live Conti - He would need a good look at if Dan does decide to campaign him this season as that form is there for all to see (Albeit Larzac absolutely threw the race away) Been told he was more a long term prospect though who they feel has the potential to go right to the top so will be a watching/listening brief as to what is happening with him.

[somer1]

I’m searching for Queen Mum prices!!

Just back Sir Gino

[ComplyOrDie]

Happy to let Lulamba pass until after the race. He was big at all his hurdles, jumping like a chaser already. The form is moderate considering his win was in October. Don't know exactly when sold and subsequently moved yards but best case scenario is he has spent 2 months at the Henderson yard, which isn't very long to settle in considering he has come over from France and often French horses take a fair bit of time to adjust to the different environment and training regime. Yes, the division doesn't look overly strong but to me there seems to be a lot of risks with regard the horse considering his price.

Hard to use the form stick to judge him, IMO. The 5th, Lanivtsi came out and won a C1 Juvenile Hurdle next time out.

The French form isn't looking great, IMO, it's a bit all over the place, but got to take each horse as an individual, and he could still be absolutely anything, given he's only had the one run.

Nearly all the 10/1 has gone, and increased, sustained support on the exchanges currently.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Certainly not heard anything on him mate, been no word from the stable regarding him.

But my reading of his debut -

He was steady enough over the first 4 or 5, he got in tight to hurdle 2&3 and just popped them which was good to see. Made a bit of a mess at the one rounding the bend away from the stands, but when allowed to stride on down the back and with clear sight of his hurdles he jumped well enough. Have to remember this was his first day at school so very happy to give him benefit of the doubt with the potential his jumping could improve. When getting racing, he jumped the last 2 hurdles well enough without being electric and when the jockey got stuck into him after the last, quickly put daylight between himself and his rivals to win very well. One thing I would say is the jockey on him for his debut, Florent Bayle, I don't rate him one bit, hes an awful rider (imo of course) so noodle arms Nico will get a better tune out him for sure

Now looking at the form of the race - As it was a late 3yo race, not too many have been seen since, but from those that have:

Lancier - Beaten 6 1/4L into 3rd by Lulamba has since gone on to finish 3rd again to Crown Du Berlais who bolted up to win his maiden. CDB had previously finished 2nd to Six Figures who was considered good enough to contest the Prix Cambaceres and on debut CDB had that all important (to me anyway) Pride of Kildare form behind Live Conti, Larzac et al.

Le Divin Enfant - Beaten 10L by Lulamba into 4th has been purchased by Willie Mullins and the Mastersons. That was his 2nd career start, the first was he was beaten just under 5L by Lek Will on the flat at Vichy. Lek Will should have won his hurdles debut just the other day but for making a hash of the last hurdle.

Lanivtsi - Beaten 18L by Lulamba into 5th was very well fancied to get off to a winning start on debut but was found wanting. He has since gone onto to win his maiden beating a horse that has form again tied in with the Pride of Kildare (L'alibi beaten 7L by Live Conti) before a 3rd on his chase debut against more experienced rivals.

As he was a late purchase by the Donnellys, I'm glad to see he's out relatively quickly after coming across, as he must be pleasing Nicky who we know wouldn't be taking any chances with them if he doesn't have to. We all seen how Sir Gino jumped on his British debut at Kempton as Nicky just expected him to be able to jump so you'd like to think he's learnt from that and will have given Lulamba a few schooling sessions to sharpen up.

All in all, I wouldn't be backing him at the price he is now as that's just gone mad, but we know how these markets are nowadays and things just seem to snowball. Hopefully a few took a chance when I highlighted him @ 33s and can relax abit and wait for his debut now to see how he goes. I would say this division is probably the one where cashout is most important to get out of bets as if you're on early enough you can get out of plenty of bets without any damage as they'll have likely shortened before their UK/IRE racecourse debut.

**Looking at the British division and why I think he'll be the best

- East India Dock - Yeah he looked impressive, but it was early season form and I just don't trust it, whether I'm right or wrong on that only time will tell.

- Palladium - I don't expect to see him now until a flat campaign, and if he does show up, people are living off a German win in a bog, what about when he blew out on his next start?

- Mondo Man - Again, very good flat form, but with him being with Gary Moore, I'd have thought we would have seen him in a maiden by now and then he could have gone onto the Victor Ludorum @ Haydock as he has used in the past for horses like Porticello

- Sauvignon - Be good to see if he gets dec'd at Huntingdon or Kempton against Lulamba. He's nice enough form, backed up by a good run by Sony Bill in the Xmas g2 @ Leopardstown but I don't see him as a strong enough stayer over a fast 2m on the new course.

- Live Conti - He would need a good look at if Dan does decide to campaign him this season as that form is there for all to see (Albeit Larzac absolutely threw the race away) Been told he was more a long term prospect though who they feel has the potential to go right to the top so will be a watching/listening brief as to what is happening with him.

Excellent work Jim
Thanks and much appreciated

[Carnage at Taunton]

Hard to use the form stick to judge him, IMO. The 5th, Lanivtsi came out and won a C1 Juvenile Hurdle next time out.

The French form isn't looking great, IMO, it's a bit all over the place, but got to take each horse as an individual, and he could still be absolutely anything, given he's only had the one run.

Nearly all the 10/1 has gone, and increased, sustained support on the exchanges currently.

9 best now . Only with Betway.

[Odin]

All in all, I wouldn't be backing him at the price he is now as that's just gone mad, but we know how these markets are nowadays and things just seem to snowball. Hopefully a few took a chance when I highlighted him @ 33s and can relax abit and wait for his debut now to see how he goes.

Took the 33s when you first mentioned him, then topped up at a boosted 28s so he's my second biggest winner in the Triumph behind Hello Neighbour now all thanks to your comments. Feeling pretty smug about that given the movement in the markets - then again, I felt the same way pre-Xmas when Willy and Murcia were my two top returns so what could possibly go wrong?!

[Lobos]

Not getting involved with any more Triumph horses . Only did Murcia, Stencil and Willy and those all ended well !!!

Happy to let the race roll on by now. Might do some during the week itself. Good luck all!