2025 Champion Chase

[Craigy14]

I think Solness will get found out personally, his "Busy" season could also be a factor. At least Jonbon and Marine Nationale will beat him, MN is improving each race, and Jonbon is the best horse in the race. Can easily see him finishing down the pecking order. I see a few have crapped on Jonbons Chelt form, Jonbon and MN form reads better than Solness. It's funny how sometimes we use stats/trends what our eyes (pockets) want to see, I'm guilty of it too, most of us are, but yeah Solness not far me, competition will be ready for this!

I love Jonbon but it’s not so much his form that is the worry for me, it’s the pressure he may be put under if he’s not leading, which he’s likely not to be. When he doesn’t lead that’s when he’s vulnerable and it’s no coincidence his 2 worst jumping performances have been at HQ….when he’s not led. Now I’d counter that to say Nico wasn’t onboard either time who I think have improved the horse a good few lbs, he’s the best around on 2m chasers for me. Will he go off too quick on the tail of Solness? Or will they (the jockeys) let him loose on the front end again. On better ground it’s a lot harder to make the ground up.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I love Jonbon but it’s not so much his form that is the worry for me, it’s the pressure he may be put under if he’s not leading, which he’s likely not to be. When he doesn’t lead that’s when he’s vulnerable and it’s no coincidence his 2 worst jumping performances have been at HQ….when he’s not led. Now I’d counter that to say Nico wasn’t onboard either time who I think have improved the horse a good few lbs, he’s the best around on 2m chasers for me. Will he go off too quick on the tail of Solness? Or will they (the jockeys) let him loose on the front end again. On better ground it’s a lot harder to make the ground up.

Yeah, like him for this or not Solness has certainly added to the race.
Absolutely agree about Nico improving Jonbon and also now with the knowledge he stays further well he can be made more use of. Think he will be fine just laying off Solness.
Re Cheltenham, his runs there where he’s been not so good have been first time out, and as a novice in the Arkle without Nico.He always improves for his first run.
I did think his best jumping performance at Chelt was this season though, and as I’ve said before, I did think the Cheltenham thing and Jonbon could have been a factor, I don’t any more with Nico riding, he’s crucial to the horse imo.

[ComplyOrDie]

In a match I'd back Energumene over Gaelic Warrior over 2m at Cheltenham Enegumene's defeat to Jonbon is better than Gaelic Warrior's form this season

I said exactly this in the post you replied to, I guess you were just re-iterating the point

State Man is a sentimental pick, he's openly admitted it's his favourite horse, I won't have anyone tell me otherwise

Horrible little horse.... I actually have talked myself into thinking he's the horse I like the least in training

Walloped by Fact To File in a 2 horse race as well ..... pathetic little thing

Who the fuck is Brazil!

Put up by yours truly on here @ 25's, what a horse

[chunker86]

Was bored this morning so did a bit of dig into the Nico/course factor on Jonbon.

This is based on RPRs and chases only.

Jonbon at Cheltenham
164 - Aidan Coleman - 2nd
169 - Nico - 1st
165 - James Bowen - 2nd
164 - Nico 1st

So no run above 170 at Cheltenham, avg RPR 166 from 4 runs, but 2/2 under Nico (both in November).

Jonbon anywhere
Under Nico - 7/7 - Average RPR 171 - Low 164 at Cheltenham, High 177 at Ascot.
Under AC - 5/6 - Average RPR 162 - Low 157 at Warwick, High 170 at Sandown
Under JB - 0/1 - Average RPR 165 - 165 at Cheltenham
Not under Nico - 5/7 - Average RPR 163 - Low 157 at Warwick, High 170 at Sandown

Career Avg RPR 167 (14 Runs)

Of the 7 runs not under Nico - only 2 have been above his lowest RPR in the 7 rides under Nico - the 165 in defeat under Bowen, and a 170 at Sandown in April 23.

On the face of the bare ratings he's 8lb better under Nico than any other jockey - there's a fair case to be made that the majority of his races under Coleman were as a novice chaser so would naturally attract lower ratings, but the fact remains that under Nico he's 7 from 7 and run above 170 in 5 of those.

Career High RPRs
Energumene 179
Gaelic Warrior 172
Cpt Guinness 168
Solness 166
Marine Nationale 165
Found a Fifty 165

Also worth noting that despite the commentary that Energumene needs it bottomless - the 2 times he's run with "good" in the description he's run to 170 and 178

[Quevega]

Was bored this morning so did a bit of dig into the Nico/course factor on Jonbon.

This is based on RPRs and chases only.

Jonbon at Cheltenham
164 - Aidan Coleman - 2nd
169 - Nico - 1st
165 - James Bowen - 2nd
164 - Nico 1st

So no run above 170 at Cheltenham, avg RPR 166 from 4 runs, but 2/2 under Nico (both in November).

Jonbon anywhere
Under Nico - 7/7 - Average RPR 171 - Low 164 at Cheltenham, High 177 at Ascot.
Under AC - 5/6 - Average RPR 162 - Low 157 at Warwick, High 170 at Sandown
Under JB - 0/1 - Average RPR 165 - 165 at Cheltenham
Not under Nico - 5/7 - Average RPR 163 - Low 157 at Warwick, High 170 at Sandown

Career Avg RPR 167 (14 Runs)

Of the 7 runs not under Nico - only 2 have been above his lowest RPR in the 7 rides under Nico - the 165 in defeat under Bowen, and a 170 at Sandown in April 23.

On the face of the bare ratings he's 8lb better under Nico than any other jockey - there's a fair case to be made that the majority of his races under Coleman were as a novice chaser so would naturally attract lower ratings, but the fact remains that under Nico he's 7 from 7 and run above 170 in 5 of those.

Career High RPRs
Energumene 179
Gaelic Warrior 172
Cpt Guinness 168
Solness 166
Marine Nationale 165
Found a Fifty 165

Also worth noting that despite the commentary that Energumene needs it bottomless - the 2 times he's run with "good" in the description he's run to 170 and 178

Worth considering that high RPR's are not generally dished out in novice company. For obvious reasons.
All bar one of Colemans rides were in novice company I think.
So probably not a fair comparison at all. IMO

[Middle_Of_March]

Knock the haters again??!!
If you read this thread back and others, you’ll not find many haters, Kev is an exception imo

Jonbon on the other hand…

Not necessarily based on here but he does have a lot of haters. Just a quick glance at Mullins stable tour on Twitter and half of the responses were about Gaelic saying he’s a dog etc.

It won’t happen as he doesn’t have his ground but I’d say a repeat of that Arkle performance wins this years Champion Chase. Sh*te race and on his day he’s top top class.

[ComplyOrDie]

Currently no Gaelic Warrior in the entries. Energumene is in.

[Quevega]

Currently no Gaelic Warrior in the entries. Energumene is in.

If not entered that’s ricci pushing Townend buttons again

[Carnage at Taunton]

Not necessarily based on here but he does have a lot of haters. Just a quick glance at Mullins stable tour on Twitter and half of the responses were about Gaelic saying he’s a dog etc.

It won’t happen as he doesn’t have his ground but I’d say a repeat of that Arkle performance wins this years Champion Chase. Sh*te race and on his day he’s top top class.

Not sure he’s proved top top class as yet

[ComplyOrDie]

If not entered that’s ricci pushing Townend buttons again

Yeah, if Townend isn't available he doesn't want them entered!

[Quevega]

Yeah, if Townend isn't available he doesn't want them entered!

He will have definitely asked questions like we’ve all discussed on here.
You’d still leave him in though normally
just in case.
if they don’t I’d suggest someone is a bit pissed
All a bit strange really cos I’d have kicked off Townend after his non effective ride on Gaelic the last day.

[ComplyOrDie]

He will have definitely asked questions like we’ve all discussed on here.
You’d still leave him in though normally
just in case.
if they don’t I’d suggest someone is a bit pissed
All a bit strange really cos I’d have kicked off Townend after his non effective ride on Gaelic the last day.

Think RR said Gaelic not been A1 though, maybe this is the real reason.

[ComplyOrDie]

No Gaelic Warrior here. Confirmed.

[EnvoiAlien]

#Pray4Lobos

[Lobos]

Bugger........he has to be injured