2025 Champion Chase

[Lobos]

Yeah probably would enjoy Ascot
Weird how he don’t seem to like Leopardstown

Left Handed, tighter than Cheltenham and less undulating. He squirms every time they enter him. Bit like Galopin at Punchestown.

[Lobos]

1 win from 3 at Leopardstown, strangely the same as his Cheltenham record.

Seems to dislike the place a lot more though. He was thrown in for his Hcp win but made hard work of that as well.

Maybe he's a Spring horse.

[EnvoiAlien]

Gawd,keep Skelton away from him ffs.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Seems to dislike the place a lot more though. He was thrown in for his Hcp win but made hard work of that as well.

Maybe he's a Spring horse.

More inclined to think he’s a dodgy unreliable sort myself

[Ice]

More inclined to think he’s a dodgy unreliable sort myself

I wouldn't mind owning one as dodgy and unreliable as him !

[Carnage at Taunton]

I wouldn't mind owning one as dodgy and unreliable as him !

Me too, but I bet he frustrates his owners at times

[Rooster Booster]

More inclined to think he’s a dodgy unreliable sort myself

He’s actually surprisingly consistent with nine of his last 11 RPRs ranging between 150 and 159. The Arkle and the match up with F2F being the two outliers. So for all the talk of left handed right handed , courses he likes and dislikes most of the evidence suggests that’s his ability and he produces that range of performance almost every time and on what is now a fairly significant back catalogue of work only one performance entitles him to be so close to Jonbon in the market. Both in my work and in punting I have learnt to be wary of outliers at both ends of the scale.

The one mitigating factor of course is the C and D though his Arkle winning time was over 16 seconds above standard and nearly 4 seconds slower than Jonbon when he won his first Schloer on similar ground and over 11 seconds slower than when Jonbon won his second Schloer on quicker ground (Jonbon also carried 3 pounds more on both occasions). For me GW simply won’t be quick enough on soft ground or quicker.

I would be interested in any horse that has shown even on only one occasion that he could perform to the level required to win a given race but personally I’d want bigger than 5s.Nick Luck thinks the exact opposite as he called him out as the horse that represents outstanding value right now so it’s certainly a game of opinions

[Quevega]

He’s actually surprisingly consistent with nine of his last 11 RPRs ranging between 150 and 159. The Arkle and the match up with F2F being the two outliers. So for all the talk of left handed right handed , courses he likes and dislikes most of the evidence suggests that’s his ability and he produces that range of performance almost every time and on what is now a fairly significant back catalogue of work only one performance entitles him to be so close to Jonbon in the market. Both in my work and in punting I have learnt to be wary of outliers at both ends of the scale.

The one mitigating factor of course is the C and D though his Arkle winning time was over 16 seconds above standard and nearly 4 seconds slower than Jonbon when he won his first Schloer on similar ground and over 11 seconds slower than when Jonbon won his second Schloer on quicker ground (Jonbon also carried 3 pounds more on both occasions). For me GW simply won’t be quick enough on soft ground or quicker.

I would be interested in any horse that has shown even on only one occasion that he could perform to the level required to win a given race but personally I’d want bigger than 5s.Nick Luck thinks the exact opposite as he called him out as the horse that represents outstanding value right now so it’s certainly a game of opinions

To counter this on the timings side. And you doubting his speed/pace
Gaelics arkle has to have been close to Heavy as the rest of the races that day were officially Heavy- they changed it after his race.

And bonbons shloer this year ?
Is Gaelic quicker than boothill and edwardstone ?

[Rooster Booster]

To counter this on the timings side. And you doubting his speed/pace
Gaelics arkle has to have been close to Heavy as the rest of the races that day were officially Heavy- they changed it after his race.

And bonbons shloer this year ?
Is Gaelic quicker than boothill and edwardstone ?

No I was merely pointing out that GW has very few data points that warrant him being so short and many more that suggest he should be a bigger price. The timings were nothing more than minor and crude supporting datapoints to question whether even his positive outlier was as good as Jonbons consistently high performances. I understand why some may choose to major on his outlier and discard all other performances and conclude he represents value. I don’t share that view.

[Carnage at Taunton]

To counter this on the timings side. And you doubting his speed/pace
Gaelics arkle has to have been close to Heavy as the rest of the races that day were officially Heavy- they changed it after his race.

And bonbons shloer this year ?
Is Gaelic quicker than boothill and edwardstone ?

You actually think that’s how we measure Jonbon’s chances??!!!

[That Horse]

shloer

Do people in mainland Britain buy and hoard this shite at Christmas or is that just an Irish thing?

I never see it throughout the year yet my Mrs had four bottles of it in one of the cupboards to drink during the festivities last week.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He’s actually surprisingly consistent with nine of his last 11 RPRs ranging between 150 and 159. The Arkle and the match up with F2F being the two outliers. So for all the talk of left handed right handed , courses he likes and dislikes most of the evidence suggests that’s his ability and he produces that range of performance almost every time and on what is now a fairly significant back catalogue of work only one performance entitles him to be so close to Jonbon in the market. Both in my work and in punting I have learnt to be wary of outliers at both ends of the scale.

The one mitigating factor of course is the C and D though his Arkle winning time was over 16 seconds above standard and nearly 4 seconds slower than Jonbon when he won his first Schloer on similar ground and over 11 seconds slower than when Jonbon won his second Schloer on quicker ground (Jonbon also carried 3 pounds more on both occasions). For me GW simply won’t be quick enough on soft ground or quicker.

I would be interested in any horse that has shown even on only one occasion that he could perform to the level required to win a given race but personally I’d want bigger than 5s.Nick Luck thinks the exact opposite as he called him out as the horse that represents outstanding value right now so it’s certainly a game of opinions

Well I guess that’s proved me wrong in saying he’s a dodgy unreliable type
Probably would have been more accurate to say that i personally would think long and hard before taking the odds on offer unless as some sort of cover in case he produces a performance that improves from his Arkle victory , because imo he’s well capable of producing his performance against FTF when put under pressure.
Thats what I meant by unreliable, particularly going left handed imo.

[Rooster Booster]

Well I guess that’s proved me wrong in saying he’s a dodgy unreliable type
Probably would have been more accurate to say that i personally would think long and hard before taking the odds on offer unless as some sort of cover in case he produces a performance that improves from his Arkle victory , because imo he’s well capable of producing his performance against FTF when put under pressure.
Thats what I meant by unreliable, particularly going left handed imo.

I guess I just meant that outliers are the data points that are typically removed and considered unreliable. This means an econemetrician or statistician would discard his Arkle win and his defeat behind F2F and conclude that the remaining significant number of data points were the more reliable ones. This makes GW a high 150s horse with an awful lot to find still. Personally I do believe he is capable if putting in a 170 plus performance when all of the stars are aligned but I think it to be less likely than his current odds suggest and even if he does it could easily still not be enough to beat Jonbon.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I guess I just meant that outliers are the data points that are typically removed and considered unreliable. This means an econemetrician or statistician would discard his Arkle win and his defeat behind F2F and conclude that the remaining significant number of data points were the more reliable ones. This makes GW a high 150s horse with an awful lot to find still. Personally I do believe he is capable if putting in a 170 plus performance when all of the stars are aligned but I think it to be less likely than his current odds suggest and even if he does it could easily still not be enough to beat Jonbon.

Yep, understand
Interesting stuff that

[Quevega]

You actually think that’s how we measure Jonbon’s chances??!!!

No, but the market has not taken into account that his Cheltenham best performances are not as good as on other tracks like Sandown.
He has been consistently below par at Cheltenham.
I know you think Nico will make a big difference come March as you seem to think he proved in this years schloer. But he didn't though did he ?
Jonbon will want it to be on the soft side this March also IMO, and I think at 5-1 vs 2-1 Gaelic is the bet.

I share the same views as others though and Gaelic price may hold/drift if he disappoints at Leopardstown again.
But I doubt his SP will be much worse than 5-1, although he could make a right hash of Leopardstown so you never know.