2025 Champion Chase

[Wayward Lad]

Completely agree Yosser

I just don’t see the case for stepping him up as - he is the top rated 2m chaser (RPR 6lbs clear), beat the current Fav, Jonbon in the 2023 Arkle by 5 lengths when fav to do so, was 2/9 fav to wins last years Champ Chase, has never run over further than 2m 2f in his life. Jonbon will be 9 next year, whereas El Fabiola will be 8 and Gaelic Warrior 7. So El Fabiolas profile looks good, they just need to get David Casey schooling him plenty and the Champ Chase it is.

Yes he has fluffed his lines last year with sloppy jumping and has always thrown in a howler even in his Arkle year - and got beat 4l by Jonbon at Sandown at the end of year. But he was odds on to beat Jonbon at Sandown and RPR ratings suggest he did not run to form and Jonbon did.

Many here on the Forum think last years Arkle wasn’t full of quality, so it’s not like there are many younger horses challenging for the 2m crown, even if Gaelic Warrior could well improve (RPR 172).

I’d also argue that such a speedy horse over 2m may well struggle to get a fast run 2m 5f around Cheltenham and Willie has a few others he may target the Ryanair with ie I’ll Est Temps and Grangeclare West.

If El Fab could jump then he’d be 5/2 to win the 2024 Champ Chase

[Garrison Savannah]

El Fab is a natural 2 miler to my eye and we know Willie likes a little redemption so I think they’ll be a bit of unfinished business going on…El Fab is a cracking price for the QMCC.

If you’re not already on, now is the time to get on before Willie name checks the race in the forthcoming stable tours.

All IMHO of course.

[Lobos]

Gaelic will target the Champion Chase without a doubt. Willie was chuffed to bits getting it right by dropping him down to 2m for the Arkle and then him running away with the race. Gaelic absolutely loved the trip and track and didn't lug to his right one bit. He'll not step him back up again around Cheltenham unless the horse tells him to. No reason why Willie won't run several in the race as he has plenty of others to mess about with in the Ryanair.

[Wayward Lad]

I agree that Willie may target the Champ Chase with both Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiola, however I have mental block when it comes to Gaelic and can’t bring myself to back him as last year I felt ‘put away’ by connections with ‘stayers hurdle this year chasing next year’ the. ‘see him as a staying chaser’ etc - I backed him for the Stayers (he was fav), I then backed him for the BANC (he was fav) which is where I thought he’d go, then followed the herd backing him for the Turners . Needless to say I didn’t back him for the Arkle! as I felt burnt ala Vautour for the Gold Cup etc ……not that I am bitter, honestly !

[Lobos]

You weren't on your own WL. Think everyone on here pumped plenty of points on him for all the wrong races. Proper forum cliff horse over the years.

[Frankely My Dear]

I'm going to write to Willie and ask him to change EF's name to El Fabiola

[opatcho]

I can’t see El Fab stepping up at all
Will be throwing him in a few AP bets for the QM at the current price

[Runragged]

Granted everyone gets there fit and well then I expect El Fab will go Champion Chase and I expect he will start much shorter than the 6/1 having been given somewhat of a cautious prep. However, I will happily bet against him that his jumping won't hold up against other top class 2m chasers.

[robith]

Arkle to CC record is patchy too - last ten runnings, only 3 Arkle winners have followed up in the championship race

[Lobos]

Arkle to CC record is patchy too - last ten runnings, only 3 Arkle winners have followed up in the championship race

I'd say that's a pretty damn good ratio. I bet a fair few have been placed as well ?

[Imperial Commander]

Yes, that's a good hit rate. Or to put it another way, backing last year's Arkle winner blindly at 5-2 to win the Champion Chase, would have made a profit.

[robith]

Sorry guys, it's actually 2/10, I was getting my Sprinter Sacre's mixed up.

Level stakes on the last 10 arkle winners would net you 0.5 profit over 10 years at SP and most of that was PTKO

[Istabraq]

Arkle to CC record is patchy too - last ten runnings, only 3 Arkle winners have followed up in the championship race

I backed PTKO on the strength of the trend of Arkle horses following up in Open company so if it's a patchy record think that must be a very modern trend.
The Champion Chaser has a numebr of multiple winners which is probably why the record won't read well, Altior, Sptinter, Master Minded, Energumene all duel winners in the last 15 years
The other things is the race has suffered from notable absentees, not sure how many of these have been Arkle winners (if any) but for a while it seemed every short priced fav was doomed to make the race....

[Lobos]

Yes, tis a modern trend. Go back over the years and many have doubled up. One of my go to stats.

[Saxon Warrior]

I backed PTKO on the strength of the trend of Arkle horses following up in Open company so if it's a patchy record think that must be a very modern trend.
The Champion Chaser has a numebr of multiple winners which is probably why the record won't read well, Altior, Sptinter, Master Minded, Energumene all duel winners in the last 15 years
The other things is the race has suffered from notable absentees, not sure how many of these have been Arkle winners (if any) but for a while it seemed every short priced fav was doomed to make the race....

Even if it's 3 wins in 10 (and for various reasons the other 7 didn't make it to the race, (or were beaten in it) that's a great conversion rate.

That's little over 2/1, say 9/4, that the Arkle-QMCC has been done in the last decade.

Obvs those that backed PTKO at 33s opening show for QMCC are well in profit for that double trend.

GW around 5/1, represents fair value, for the race this season, given the way he won the Arkle.