2025 Champion Chase

[Exar Essay]

I think the 50/1 WTAF about El Fab - DRF & QMCC looks a good bet. The expected scenario is that he uses the race to find his race fitness ahead of a step up in trip. But what if he wins?

His best RPR is 178 and he fairly routinely achieved a level of 170+ between is Arkle in’’23 and his PU in the QMCC last year. Meanwhile, his likely competition at the DRF haven’t posted more than a 162 this year. I expect Gaelic Warrior to come on from his first run, but he might not.

His jumping did seem to fall apart at Sandown last year, but that could’ve been a hangover, or even a little issue following Cheltenham. He could return to just bulldozing his way through fences like he used to.

He’s coming back from injury, but it seems they’ve only been niggly things.

It’s easy to forget he’s only 8 and should really be in his pomp.

There are so many questions hanging over him, but 50/1 seems generous about a horse we know to be very good at 2m around the old course on his day.

I’m also considering the 87/1 El Fab (DRF) and Gaelic Warrior (Ryanair) double.

[Kevloaf]

Exactly that mate.

Indeed, it’s a good job I don’t fancy Jonbon

It’s one of those races that the likely winners are all priced up too short for me antepost. Throw on the day doubles or trebles on those sort of races. Il Est Francais I’ve taken a stab as I think his style of racing would suit and he’s the unknown! He definitely has the pace, just the course form would be the only slight concern and if something else annoyed him up front but I think he may be able to shake them off.

I would fecking love to see Il Est Francais run .... I think he's great and just assumed he'd be Ryanair but after reading the quotes it seems they're really considering it and then seeing his speed analysed on RTC I am all for it!

I'd sack off the Ryanair completely though .... and this is a great example of why

This talk of Fact To File for the Ryanair is doing my head in as well, embarrassing.

If they think he's a middle distance horse (despite winning the BANC) then fucking wait until Aintree or fuck off completely.

If he's 2nd again to Galopin Des Champs, and they bottle the Gold Cup, then GDC falls.... they're leaving the clear Gold Cup winner?

It's a crock of shit to even have the entry for Fact To File in the Ryanair.


Wrong thread and all but it's just gash




Back to Jonbon, I've seen the socials asking where he compares to Sprinter Sacre and Altior and Shishkin so far..... embarassing question as well.... 2 of them are so far clear even if he wins a QMCC that I feel sick

Getting comments and clicks for the sake of it is so annoying. You don't have any personalities in the media, just click bait c*nts .... Q that's for you *

[Kevloaf]

I think the 50/1 WTAF about El Fab - DRF & QMCC looks a good bet. The expected scenario is that he uses the race to find his race fitness ahead of a step up in trip. But what if he wins?

His best RPR is 178 and he fairly routinely achieved a level of 170+ between is Arkle in’’23 and his PU in the QMCC last year. Meanwhile, his likely competition at the DRF haven’t posted more than a 162 this year. I expect Gaelic Warrior to come on from his first run, but he might not.

His jumping did seem to fall apart at Sandown last year, but that could’ve been a hangover, or even a little issue following Cheltenham. He could return to just bulldozing his way through fences like he used to.

He’s coming back from injury, but it seems they’ve only been niggly things.

It’s easy to forget he’s only 8 and should really be in his pomp.

There are so many questions hanging over him, but 50/1 seems generous about a horse we know to be very good at 2m around the old course on his day.

I’m also considering the 87/1 El Fab (DRF) and Gaelic Warrior (Ryanair) double.

Both a lot bigger than I thought

Have we actually had a positive update on EF?

I was advised very early season that no matter what they said, he had zero chance of Christmas and DRF was only if everything went perfect

I'd kind of be tempted to wait for the decs and hope the price is still there

I haven't checked for absolutely ages on the horse though and just took the above as true

[Exar Essay]

Both a lot bigger than I thought

Have we actually had a positive update on EF?

I was advised very early season that no matter what they said, he had zero chance of Christmas and DRF was only if everything went perfect

I'd kind of be tempted to wait for the decs and hope the price is still there

I haven't checked for absolutely ages on the horse though and just took the above as true

I had the same early season up date. But have been informed more recently that DRF is definitely the plan. But also that they’re not expecting a win (or words to that effect).

There must be some uncertainty built in to his price. I think it would drop to 33/1 or maybe 25/1 with a dec. I couldn’t see his QMCC price of 12/1 lasting either.

In my mind, he’s more than 50% sure he’ll run so it’s worth me having a point now, rather than 2pts @ 25/1 upon declaration. I could be wrong, but the book can tolerate it.

I might hold off on the double though.

[Kevloaf]

Yeah fair enough... he's one I am quite happy to avoid. Rightly or wrongly I just assume he won't be as good as he was regardless, and even if he is, that might not be good enough

In his career he's lost to Jonbon twice and beaten him once (albeit easily in that Arkle)


He's short.... but the prices you're saying are bigger than I assumed they'd be


I'll leave it a week or so at least

Let me know if you get any updates in the meantime

[Craigy14]

I would fecking love to see Il Est Francais run .... I think he's great and just assumed he'd be Ryanair but after reading the quotes it seems they're really considering it and then seeing his speed analysed on RTC I am all for it!

I'd sack off the Ryanair completely though .... and this is a great example of why

This talk of Fact To File for the Ryanair is doing my head in as well, embarrassing.

If they think he's a middle distance horse (despite winning the BANC) then fucking wait until Aintree or fuck off completely.

If he's 2nd again to Galopin Des Champs, and they bottle the Gold Cup, then GDC falls.... they're leaving the clear Gold Cup winner?

It's a crock of shit to even have the entry for Fact To File in the Ryanair.


Wrong thread and all but it's just gash




Back to Jonbon, I've seen the socials asking where he compares to Sprinter Sacre and Altior and Shishkin so far..... embarassing question as well.... 2 of them are so far clear even if he wins a QMCC that I feel sick

Getting comments and clicks for the sake of it is so annoying. You don't have any personalities in the media, just click bait c*nts .... Q that's for you *

Agreed on Fact To File, although as much as I agree that he should go Gold Cup, his best chance of a win is the Ryanair, but I’ll stop there as we’re in the Champion Chase thread.

I did see that about Jonbon, had a chuckle myself he’s probably last with a view of not being a Cheltenham winner but at the same time I do think he’s under appreciated because of that. His 19 (maybe 20 now) race record is exceptional, so I have to give him credit for that. He’s been bashed from day 1 due to the Douvan relation and folk thought the money paid was ridiculous (they are for ptp’ers these days) but who’s proved them all wrong.

I’d like to see him win in March as much as I don’t think he will or my betting would want that.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think the 50/1 WTAF about El Fab - DRF & QMCC looks a good bet. The expected scenario is that he uses the race to find his race fitness ahead of a step up in trip. But what if he wins?

His best RPR is 178 and he fairly routinely achieved a level of 170+ between is Arkle in’’23 and his PU in the QMCC last year. Meanwhile, his likely competition at the DRF haven’t posted more than a 162 this year. I expect Gaelic Warrior to come on from his first run, but he might not.

His jumping did seem to fall apart at Sandown last year, but that could’ve been a hangover, or even a little issue following Cheltenham. He could return to just bulldozing his way through fences like he used to.

He’s coming back from injury, but it seems they’ve only been niggly things.

It’s easy to forget he’s only 8 and should really be in his pomp.

There are so many questions hanging over him, but 50/1 seems generous about a horse we know to be very good at 2m around the old course on his day.

I’m also considering the 87/1 El Fab (DRF) and Gaelic Warrior (Ryanair) double.

Cheers Exar
Makes sense for me to get EF onside as a cover, and this may be the way to do it.
Yes there’s doubt surrounding him, but if he turns up
on the day and I’ve turned down 50/1 I would not be happy.
It will be some training to get him to win both races, and imo unlikely, but 50 is worth a shot for me.

[Garrison Savannah]

I really don’t like these bets. If El Fab turns up at DRF proves his well being and runs great first time up to finish 2nd by a neck, you’ve done your dough yet he’s had a huge haircut.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I really don’t like these bets. If El Fab turns up at DRF proves his well being and runs great first time up to finish 2nd by a neck, you’ve done your dough yet he’s had a huge haircut.

Always that chance I agree.
Think it’s worth it though.
Don’t need to risk too much at that price.

[FinalFurlong91]

They mentioned the ryanair for him so I'd imagine he'd only run in the champion chase if he was to win at the DRF.

That would force their hands

He is kind of becoming footpad 2.0 though

[Lobos]

They mentioned the ryanair for him so I'd imagine he'd only run in the champion chase if he was to win at the DRF.

That would force their hands

He is kind of becoming footpad 2.0 though

The vibes I'm getting suggest he's going straight to the Festival and that for me means the Ryanair. Don't fancy him at all on that basis.

[darlojim]

The vibes I'm getting suggest he's going straight to the Festival and that for me means the Ryanair. Don't fancy him at all on that basis.

Has it not been said they're going DRF the latest?

[Lobos]

Has it not been said they're going DRF the latest?

Don't think so. That's probably just being hopeful.

[darlojim]

Don't think so. That's probably just being hopeful.

Check EE's post above

Posh Josh apparently spoke to Anthony Bromley also this week, an RTV special coming out this week on it

[Exar Essay]

Check EE's post above

Posh Josh apparently spoke to Anthony Bromley also this week, an RTV special coming out this week on it

Yeah, Josh confirmed he was on track for the DRF. And I’d heard likewise from elsewhere.

However, Ruby’s comments on the PP podcast today seem to suggest otherwise. If Ruby can be believed, you’d have him odds against to turn up at the DRF. Ruby also suggested he’d not be keen to step him up in trip if it was straight to the festival.