2025 Champion Chase

[EnvoiAlien]

Energumene & Jonbon entered for the Clarence House at the weekend,could sort a few things out if that clash goes ahead.

[Benjy23]

Watching now. Ruby thinks IEF should go Champion Chase and is the pace angle in the race. Interesting enough speed figures...

El Fab back in full work. May make DRF. PT didn't seem massively keen on him either, over either trip. Seemed to have preference for stepping up.

PT didn't seem that keen on Energumene. Although wants to see him again before CC.

PT thinks ground was too quick for Gaelic Warrior and wants it soft. Arkle was perfect (heavy and quickly run) and probably won't get that again. Didn't seem that positive on him either. Against them al.

[FinalFurlong91]

Energumene & Jonbon entered for the Clarence House at the weekend,could sort a few things out if that clash goes ahead.

Should be a good chance for jonbon to win again and go short priced fav

Energumene lost in that race both times before winning the CC and he is 2 years older now.

[EnvoiAlien]

Should be a good chance for jonbon to win again and go short priced fav

Energumene lost in that race both times before winning the CC and he is 2 years older now.

I'd agree,currently good to soft as well,weather is easing in the south, dry week ahead, if he kicks Energumene into touch it only really leaves Gaelic as a (With respect to the others) big name opponent,and for me it's all about which Gaelic turns up on the day,think most of his problems lie between his ears not on a course configuration.

[Craigy14]

I think any F2F ryanair backers (like me) would ideally like Gerri Colombe to rediscover his spark and push F2F into 3rd at the DRF.

Sure Elliott said he’d go to Windsor, he’s been entered now as well.

[Eggs]

…bit of Oddschecker blue for Captain Guinness, still 50-1 365.

[Rooster Booster]

I'd agree,currently good to soft as well,weather is easing in the south, dry week ahead, if he kicks Energumene into touch it only really leaves Gaelic as a (With respect to the others) big name opponent,and for me it's all about which Gaelic turns up on the day,think most of his problems lie between his ears not on a course configuration.

Again I’m intrigued by this notion that there are two GWs. The vast majority of his performances are rated within a 10 pound range. Only his Arkle performance and his run against F2F have fallen outside this range since his run in the Fred Winter. He is actually very consistent. I think the issue people have is they are clinging on to the hope or belief that the Arkle run is a stronger indicator that he is a 170 horse than all the other indicators that says he is a high 150 horse at best. Finally it seems that the jockey has helped us get it. With a very particular combination of factors he can achieve a high rating but that is absolutely the exception rather than the norm. If it isn’t a heavy ground fast run champion chase he will not get close to 170 and I maintain he has always been terrible value for this race. I haven’t seen R2C but it now seems even the jockey agrees.

[DenmanSacre]

Sure Elliott said he’d go to Windsor, he’s been entered now as well.

Gordon already come out and said he isn't ready for Windsor. What a waste of the entry fee.

[Odin]

Again I’m intrigued by this notion that there are two GWs. The vast majority of his performances are rated within a 10 pound range. Only his Arkle performance and his run against F2F have fallen outside this range since his run in the Fred Winter. He is actually very consistent. I think the issue people have is they are clinging on to the hope or belief that the Arkle run is a stronger indicator that he is a 170 horse than all the other indicators that says he is a high 150 horse at best. Finally it seems that the jockey has helped us get it. With a very particular combination of factors he can achieve a high rating but that is absolutely the exception rather than the norm. If it isn’t a heavy ground fast run champion chase he will not get close to 170 and I maintain he has always been terrible value for this race. I haven’t seen R2C but it now seems even the jockey agrees.

I'll give you a comeback to this just from his novice chasing season...

Gaelic was given 158 for beating Il Etait Temps 5.5l, Inothewayurthinking 7l and American Mike 25l on his second start. That was Il Etait Temps worst RPR that season (151, 143, 156, 159, 167, 163), even worse than his chasing bow (151). At the time it was 3lbs better than Inothewayurthinking's season best at 141, but two runs later he ran to 157, then 160 in consecutive runs. Obviously Inothewayurthinking was getting handicapped, but let's suppose IET ran to his seasonal debut figure (151). That would give Gaelic Warrior 166 RPR and Inothewayurthinking 149 (again a PB at the time, but still half a stone below what he ran at the end of the season so not completely implausible?)

If you do that, Gaelic's chase RPRs become 158, 166, 140 (boiled over against Fact To File?), 172, 159 (over the top at Punchestown?), 157 (seasonal reappearance when a few of Willie's needed a run). For me, the 158, 166, 172 trend is clearly different from the high 150s horse that the other evidence you've provided can show and provides support for an upward trajectory. I don't know that it's a better representation of the situation, but I think it is, and will continue to do so until Gaelic disappoints away from Leopardstown

[Rooster Booster]

I'll give you a comeback to this just from his novice chasing season...

Gaelic was given 158 for beating Il Etait Temps 5.5l, Inothewayurthinking 7l and American Mike 25l on his second start. That was Il Etait Temps worst RPR that season (151, 143, 156, 159, 167, 163), even worse than his chasing bow (151). At the time it was 3lbs better than Inothewayurthinking's season best at 141, but two runs later he ran to 157, then 160 in consecutive runs. Obviously Inothewayurthinking was getting handicapped, but let's suppose IET ran to his seasonal debut figure (151). That would give Gaelic Warrior 166 RPR and Inothewayurthinking 149 (again a PB at the time, but still half a stone below what he ran at the end of the season so not completely implausible?)

If you do that, Gaelic's chase RPRs become 158, 166, 140 (boiled over against Fact To File?), 172, 159 (over the top at Punchestown?), 157 (seasonal reappearance when a few of Willie's needed a run). For me, the 158, 166, 172 trend is clearly different from the high 150s horse that the other evidence you've provided can show and provides support for an upward trajectory. I don't know that it's a better representation of the situation, but I think it is, and will continue to do so until Gaelic disappoints away from Leopardstown

If only we put so much effort analysing and scrutinising RPRs of horses (and those they have beaten ) that we haven’t backed. Who knows the same could trigger an increase in other horses in the field too. Unless you’ve done every horse with the same due diligence it’s just confirmation bias isn’t it? Maybe you have in which case respect

[Odin]

If only we put so much effort analysing and scrutinising RPRs of horses (and those they have beaten ) that we haven’t backed. Who knows the same could trigger an increase in other horses in the field too. Unless you’ve done every horse with the same due diligence it’s just confirmation bias isn’t it? Maybe you have in which case respect

I regularly do it to be fair - only on the higher class horses rather than the lower class ones and generally not looking back over a season because there's been no reason to. I've slagged off rprs a fair few times on here based on retrospectively considering the horses they've been rated around. Doesn't mean I'm right, not that it's confirmation bias/not, just an alternative interpretation of what's going on.

I have some misgivings about the normal distribution assumption you used to remove the two outliers of Gaelics performances as well, but I guess given your openness to debate on the first reply, that's a conversation for another time!

[Rooster Booster]

I regularly do it to be fair - only on the higher class horses rather than the lower class ones and generally not looking back over a season because there's been no reason to. I've slagged off rprs a fair few times on here based on retrospectively considering the horses they've been rated around. Doesn't mean I'm right, not that it's confirmation bias/not, just an alternative interpretation of what's going on.

I have some misgivings about the normal distribution assumption you used to remove the two outliers of Gaelics performances as well, but I guess given your openness to debate on the first reply, that's a conversation for another time!

Fair play. You are right that I wasn’t keen to entertain microscopic analysis of GWs RPRs without seeing evidence of the same for all likely or potential opposition. In other words even if I was persuaded by your interpretation of GWs positive trend I wouldn’t be able to conclude whether I felt his chances were increased until I could see evidence that his relative position had also improved based on you applying the same rigour to every horse. Hope this makes sense as I’m likely doing a poor job of explaining.

I also appreciate my distribution analysis (massive overstatement) was crude. I was simply trying to point out that he has multiple performances rated in the 150s and only one above 160 and yet he is priced as if it’s clear and established that he is within a few pounds of Jonbon. Yes on one performance and only when I’d (and his potential jockey) conclude that was only made possible or attainable because every duck lined up in a row that day. He won’t run in this race imo unless connections expect a similar combination of factors in Champion Chase day.

i understand however why it feels to many like he is inconsistent. Many will point to jumping inconsistencies, jumping preferences, ground preferences, pre race demeanour and all those variables which people assume would or should impact his performance significantly….and yet whatever the combination of above, apart from two exceptions he still gets a rating between 150 and 159 (accepting of course that you disagree) .

Finally I really appreciate your responses. I very much enjoy the thought and brain power you put into your punting and sharing it with us all. Please continue to do so as I for one am a grateful recipient.

[Odin]

All good Rooster Booster

For what it's worth, I think we are quite close together in our thought processes. I also think Gaelic is a fairly consistent animal, with excuses for the poor(er) runs. Difference is that I think he could still be on the improve (or have hit his level at that 172 Arkle run), whereas you think he essentially found his level as a novice hurdler and any "improvement" greater than 2-3lbs from that is just outlying data.

Very comfortable agreeing to disagree, all about a game of opinions at the end of the day

[Rooster Booster]

All good Rooster Booster

For what it's worth, I think we are quite close together in our thought processes. I also think Gaelic is a fairly consistent animal, with excuses for the poor(er) runs. Difference is that I think he could still be on the improve (or have hit his level at that 172 Arkle run), whereas you think he essentially found his level as a novice hurdler and any "improvement" greater than 2-3lbs from that is just outlying data.

Very comfortable agreeing to disagree, all about a game of opinions at the end of the day

Actually I’d say my biggest issue is not that he couldn’t be a 170 horse or not that he couldn’t be improving. It’s that the chances of him being that are not commensurate with his price. I’d happily take a punt on your rationale over mine if he were a bigger price as even outliers can repeat (not to mention that I am very often wrong).

[ComplyOrDie]

Jonbon vs Energumene is on!