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Do you think it's just a quirk of recent history that all the last 11 winners were FRE bred or is it something you'd pay attention to?
Not so much these days, but French breds have dominated certain races over the years. It was something I'd look at but not really on my radar nowadays.
Actually didn;t know that.
Most of the big players are though aren;t they in the current market.
Conflated has definitely not been running on his merits.
Grand National entry shows why.
You only have to go back 12 months to his 3rd in this race and close 2nd to Jonbon in the Melling.
He'll be revved up for this race if declared.
Might be out the back again this weekend though so hold bets and he might be even bigger.
Conflated has definitely not been running on his merits.
Grand National entry shows why.
You only have to go back 12 months to his 3rd in this race and close 2nd to Jonbon in the Melling.
He'll be revved up for this race if declared.
Might be out the back again this weekend though so hold bets and he might be even bigger.
I can't resist that at 50/1 NRNB with cashout
and if he's bigger after the weekend I'll go in again
I don't want to waste time thinking about stuff I hope doesn't happen
But I'm considering being forced to take the 6/4 NRNB about Fact To File before the weekend
If he ends up here, he'll have been beaten, but won't be pushed out, in fact it's going to be a pretty rubbish situation that he's beaten and may even shorten from as tight as 6/4 already is
but
He just wins this doesn't he....
Main danger - Il Est Francais, and they've actively said they'll avoid him
Then it's Gaelic Warrior for the same trainer, and I suppose it'll be a ride Paul Townend needs, but they have met before and FTF murdered GW.
Then Banbridge, who they're already talking about going for the Gold Cup, and even more likely with FTF out of the picture?
El Fabiolo ... doesn't beat FTF over this trip for me ...
Spillane's Tower they probably wouldn't even need to run
Protektorat - fine, technically the one to beat but he just would?
Energumene - again, could be Paul's ride so at least a rival
....but he goes off odds on if he runs doesn't he?
Is 6/4 NRNB value?
I'm trying to ignore all the related doubles and combos .... just as a 'shortie'.... he's mustard isn't he? Makes all. Wins?
I don't want to waste time thinking about stuff I hope doesn't happen
But I'm considering being forced to take the 6/4 NRNB about Fact To File before the weekend
If he ends up here, he'll have been beaten, but won't be pushed out, in fact it's going to be a pretty rubbish situation that he's beaten and may even shorten from as tight as 6/4 already is
but
He just wins this doesn't he....
Main danger - Il Est Francais, and they've actively said they'll avoid him
Then it's Gaelic Warrior for the same trainer, and I suppose it'll be a ride Paul Townend needs, but they have met before and FTF murdered GW.
Then Banbridge, who they're already talking about going for the Gold Cup, and even more likely with FTF out of the picture?
El Fabiolo ... doesn't beat FTF over this trip for me ...
Spillane's Tower they probably wouldn't even need to run
Protektorat - fine, technically the one to beat but he just would?
Energumene - again, could be Paul's ride so at least a rival
....but he goes off odds on if he runs doesn't he?
Is 6/4 NRNB value?
I'm trying to ignore all the related doubles and combos .... just as a 'shortie'.... he's mustard isn't he? Makes all. Wins?
I'm thinking about a spacehopper sized bet
Wouldn’t you back yourself to get a better ROI on that stake if you used it elsewhere? Or are you falling into the trap of needing to try and win every race?
Wouldn’t you back yourself to get a better ROI on that stake if you used it elsewhere? Or are you falling into the trap of needing to try and win every race?
This bet wouldn't stop me backing elsewhere though, it's not like if I place this bet I can't place others
I also don't think trying to win every race is a trap ... 'trying' to do that is definitely the aim
It's more that I don't really play the Ryanair ante post for this exact reason, as you get closer to the time and it just looks obvious
to me, if Fact To File runs, he wins .... so 6/4 looks a really strong bet?
This bet wouldn't stop me backing elsewhere though, it's not like if I place this bet I can't place others
I also don't think trying to win every race is a trap ... 'trying' to do that is definitely the aim
It's more that I don't really play the Ryanair ante post for this exact reason, as you get closer to the time and it just looks obvious
to me, if Fact To File runs, he wins .... so 6/4 looks a really strong bet?
Well it can be a trap if maximising profit is the aim as every bet we place has an opportunity cost….unless we have an unlimited budget of course. But yes in isolation ignoring opportunity cost I think it’s a sound bet
Well it can be a trap if maximising profit is the aim as every bet we place has an opportunity cost….unless we have an unlimited budget of course. But yes in isolation ignoring opportunity cost I think it’s a sound bet
I do almost have an 'unlimited budget' as I use a friends account for the cashout firm, just give him 5% at the end of every festival
and the bet I'm considering will be on that account
Maximising profit as a book builder probably isn't my aim .... guaranteeing it is .... with the odd, hail mary when I've got a strong opinion, and this one is getting quite strong
I need talking down ..... I'm thinking of 100 points on
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