2025 Ryanair Chase

[Eggs]

Some interesting discussion these last few days about emerging trends for this.

Latest odds;
Jonbon 11/2
GW 7-1
El Fab 12-1
IET 12-1
Ginny’s Dest 14-1
Protektorat 14-1
Banbridge 14-1

[Wayward Lad]

So Henderson says that Jonbon is going down the 2m chasing route this season and still most bookmakers make him fav @ 4/1 or 5/1 to win the Ryanair ! Is this price the worst value Fav of all priced up races at Cheltenham at the moment ? In fact I’d go further and suggest that the first three in the betting are all crazy short prices for speedy 2m chasers who will all highly likely start the season over 2m, aiming at the Champion Chase, until plans change of course ! El Fabiola is a year younger than Jonbon, was 2/9 to win last years Champion Chase and although being beaten by Jonbon at the end of last season (maybe over the top?), is still rated higher. Yes his jumping can be poor, but why would he go to the Ryanair when he won the Arkle the year before, beating Jonbon ? Same with Gaelic Warrior, wins the Arkle last year, is a year younger than El Fabiola and is rated an above average 172 RPR to start this season (could well improve ?). Why wouldn’t he be aimed at the Champion Chase this season ?

Obviously, the other side of the top three in the betting being very short prices for the Ryanair, relative to their alternative season aims, is that it gives cause for potential value elsewhere - we just need to find it !

[Odin]

El Fabiola is a year younger than Jonbon, was 2/9 to win last years Champion Chase and although being beaten by Jonbon at the end of last season (maybe over the top?), is still rated higher. Yes his jumping can be poor, but why would he go to the Ryanair when he won the Arkle the year before, beating Jonbon ? Same with Gaelic Warrior, wins the Arkle last year, is a year younger than El Fabiola and is rated an above average 172 RPR to start this season (could well improve ?). Why wouldn’t he be aimed at the Champion Chase this season ?

If Townend wants to ride El Fabiolo and Gaelic Warrior at the festival, they will be split between QMCC and Ryanair. The only horse for me who stops that from happening is Grangeclare West and he is fragile. Il Etait Temps is Danny Mullins ride on all known information (and I think he will be beat before the festival anyway), Energumene is getting a bit older and probably won't return the same horse (but we don't know that yet). Gentleman De Mee and Dinoblue probably aren't good enough to play a part, but are McManus anyway so don't form part of the equation. Indiana Dream coud well be good enough, but is fragile and also McManus so doesn't form part of the Townend conundrum.

[Wayward Lad]

You could well be right Odin re Gaelic Warrior, although that would be disappointing as his rating at the start of this season is most certainly Champion Chase class. However last years experience in trying to predict where Gaelic is going to run is still an open wound for me so I am ‘once bitten’….As for alternatives then maybe it’s time to start looking at 3m chasers stepping down in trip rather than 2m stepping up ? Ryanair trends suggest that 2m 5f round Cheltenham suits 3m chasers that maybe don’t get 3 1/4m round Cheltenham ? At this stage I am looking at Corbetts Cross 25/1, L’Homme Presse 20/1, Bravemansgame 33/1 and Protektorat 14/1 as the current value.

[Odin]

You could well be right Odin re Gaelic Warrior, although that would be disappointing as his rating at the start of this season is most certainly Champion Chase class. However last years experience in trying to predict where Gaelic is going to run is still an open wound for me so I am ‘once bitten’….As for alternatives then maybe it’s time to start looking at 3m chasers stepping down in trip rather than 2m stepping up ? Ryanair trends suggest that 2m 5f round Cheltenham suits 3m chasers that maybe don’t get 3 1/4m round Cheltenham ? At this stage I am looking at Corbetts Cross 25/1, L’Homme Presse 20/1, Bravemansgame 33/1 and Protektorat 14/1 as the current value.

Yes, sorry I was only mentioning Mullins horses that could stop the split before. My fulll team for the Ryanair is already:

Gaelic Warrior, Fastorslow, LHomme Presse, Bravemansgame, Corbetts Cross, Iroko, Envoi Allen, Found A Fifty, Grangeclare West, El Fabiolo, Il Est Francais, Il Etait Temps and Jonbon

So it's safe to say I've been busy, but I'll be in profit if any of those except Il Etait Temps and Jonbon win so I'm in a good enough position for potential Gaelic Warrior challengers I think

[IstabraqBarRegular]

Only one I've backed here so far is L'Homme Presse who i think will go here.
Corbetts Cross the other I like.

[Yosser]

I quite like Grangeclare West for the Gold Cup if he is sound but that is a big if. It will take a leap of faith to back him this far out but he was progressing nicely last season. Has the stamina and a turn of foot after a long race. Will be one of the main ones i am listening out for on Willies stable tour.

[Odin]

I quite like Grangeclare West for the Gold Cup if he is sound but that is a big if. It will take a leap of faith to back him this far out but he was progressing nicely last season. Has the stamina and a turn of foot after a long race. Will be one of the main ones i am listening out for on Willies stable tour.

Yeah agree about the big if and there's definitely a chance he goes Gold Cup.

My thought process above considered the Ryanair in the context of Willie having Galopin for Townend's ride in the Gold Cup so if he wanted to ride Grangeclare he'd have to go Ryanair. Quotes from his last race suggest he's quite keen going as well so potentially would struggle to get home over 3m2.5f - almost like Allaho reincarnated. Not necessarily a fair description, but an easy comparison for me to draw given same connections.

"I didn’t expect that now — I thought he would run well, but that was a top race. Paul was worried about him pulling too hard and he’d want to be as fit as he is because he just pulled his arms out for the three miles. To do that, on that ground and win like that going away was a huge performance. His jumping was excellent. He just came out of Paul’s hands at the first fence and from then on Paul was just trying to settle him back. He got him back jumping normally. He’s just a natural chaser."

[Yosser]

Yeah agree about the big if and there's definitely a chance he goes Gold Cup.

My thought process above considered the Ryanair in the context of Willie having Galopin for Townend's ride in the Gold Cup so if he wanted to ride Grangeclare he'd have to go Ryanair. Quotes from his last race suggest he's quite keen going as well so potentially would struggle to get home over 3m2.5f - almost like Allaho reincarnated. Not necessarily a fair description, but an easy comparison for me to draw given same connections.

"I didn’t expect that now — I thought he would run well, but that was a top race. Paul was worried about him pulling too hard and he’d want to be as fit as he is because he just pulled his arms out for the three miles. To do that, on that ground and win like that going away was a huge performance. His jumping was excellent. He just came out of Paul’s hands at the first fence and from then on Paul was just trying to settle him back. He got him back jumping normally. He’s just a natural chaser."

just shows how people see things differently you know what they say about opinions

I don't see a scenario (barring injury) that PT would ride Grangeclare West in any race. I see the combinations of - Champion Chase :- El Fab, Gaelic Warrior, Enurgemene - Ryanair :- Gaelic Warrior, Grangeclare West - Gold Cup :- GDC, Grangeclare West and maybe, just maybe Gaelic Warrior. Willie mentioned him being a Gold Cup horse but those plans might have been shelved now. Usually you hear by now about horse retirements so it looks as though Envoi Allen will be going round again. He will be aimed at the Ryanair but it's a bridge too far now especially when you see what is likely to turn up there. Envoi will be retired after the Ryanair 2025 i reckon.

[Odin]

I don't see a scenario (barring injury) that PT would ride Grangeclare West in any race. I see the combinations of - Champion Chase :- El Fab, Gaelic Warrior, Enurgemene - Ryanair :- Gaelic Warrior, Grangeclare West - Gold Cup :- GDC, Grangeclare West and maybe, just maybe Gaelic Warrior. .

I actually completely agree with you.

I'm convinced PT rides:
El Fabiolo CC, Gaelic Ryanair, Galopin Gold Cup

Realistically for me, the only way that changes (barring injuries) is if El Fabiolo bombs out - at which point it becomes a case of who is the better chance for PT:
Energumene, Grangeclare or Il Etait Temps.

I was just suggesting Grangeclare is most likely to change the equation of the least likely horses... If that makes sense?

[Yosser]

I actually completely agree with you.

I'm convinced PT rides:
El Fabiolo CC, Gaelic Ryanair, Galopin Gold Cup

Realistically for me, the only way that changes (barring injuries) is if El Fabiolo bombs out - at which point it becomes a case of who is the better chance for PT:
Energumene, Grangeclare or Il Etait Temps.

I was just suggesting Grangeclare is most likely to change the equation of the least likely horses... If that makes sense?

The one that could improve past something? Definitely can see that. I think he is top class and i hope he stays fit. PT would have been on board in the BANC last season if he hadn't have gone arse over tit in his box. 33/1 i was on at too, 3 sodding weeks before the festival

[Zachx02]

I actually completely agree with you.

I'm convinced PT rides:
El Fabiolo CC, Gaelic Ryanair, Galopin Gold Cup

Realistically for me, the only way that changes (barring injuries) is if El Fabiolo bombs out - at which point it becomes a case of who is the better chance for PT:
Energumene, Grangeclare or Il Etait Temps.

I was just suggesting Grangeclare is most likely to change the equation of the least likely horses... If that makes sense?

GCW is an interesting one, could you see him dropping back to ryanair trip or keep him at 3 miles? His win over Christmas at Leopardstown was brilliant massive shame he got injured as him Vs F2F in the BANC would have been quality

[charlie]

A novice may have a crack. Anything rated over 145 that doesn't want 3m but 2m is too sharp may as well if the division looks open

[Odin]

GCW is an interesting one, could you see him dropping back to ryanair trip or keep him at 3 miles? His win over Christmas at Leopardstown was brilliant massive shame he got injured as him Vs F2F in the BANC would have been quality

There's not really a lot to go on so it's all speculative at the moment, and obviously they've got to keep him fit for the year. It's easier for me to have him covered for the Ryanair because I'm not doing a book on the Gold Cup so I don't feel like I'm betting twice on a fragile horse. The argument for him going there is:

- Keen in that Xmas Leopardstown win, would he stay 3m2f?
- Same colours as Allaho who did the same Bartlett/RSA pathway that GCW was at least aimed towards (I believe)
- Trainer has first two favourites in the Gold Cup
- Maybe easier if he is fragile it would be easier to train him for 2m5f rather than 3m2f?

And then there's the trainer jockey combinations described above. Unless Galopin gets injured, surely there's no way Townend wants to ride GCW over Galopin, in which case he's either second/third string in the Gold Cup or he goes elsewhere. I don't think it will happen but it's not difficult to see a situation where El Fabiolo disappoints this year (breeding, couple of poor runs last year - I give very valid excuses to both fwiw), Gaelic gets dropped/kept at 2m and GCW becomes the Ryanair horse.

I got 28/1 ew with boost on Coral the other day for GCW which I was very happy to take as part of my book anyway. Remember he beat Corbetts Cross 6l while pulling the whole way around Leopardstown last Xmas and that one has been highly touted for the Ryanair on here Admittedly Corbetts wasn't put in that race at any time but still...

[Wayward Lad]

Good call re GCW, got to be in the book. I think 25/1 is still available. Would love to know how he has progressed since Feb as press stated cast in box as reason for being out for the season and Chris Richardson said that they suspected a pelvic hairline fracture - does anyone know how serious or not that is for a horse ? He beat Corbetts cross twice off levels in last years novice chase campaign (over 2 1/2 miles and 3 miles). Allaho version 2 ?