2025 Champion Hurdle

[riccirich]

I'd give him hardly any chance of beating any horse shorter than him in the market though, an effective 5/1 to place and if 2 turn up then he's noly really playing for 1 place and I'd genuinely be gobsmacked if he's a better horse than State Man

On the radar for next year maybe, he just doesn't interest me

He was on the radar last season as a potentially really good one and didn't end up running, I just can't have him at the price he is based on beating Kala Conti easily.

I wouldn't be a huge follower of rprs or anything, but they can be a useful guide, and he recorded a 150 rpr on the third run of his life, first run of the season and first for mullins. And done it pretty much on the bridle. The current strong fave recorded 162 on his Xmas win when ridden out, and I think both those ratings are fairly accurate. Yes constitution hill may have improvement to come fitness wise, or he may not. And maybe it won't take a special performance to win it this year. 15lbs of improvement could be enough to go close, which you'd have to say is a real possibility given ease of victory and inexperience.

If we put ratings to one side though, he's never ran at anything like champion hurdle pace, so it could easily be a shock to the system and jumping could well fall to pieces. Hopefully he faces decent opposition on his next run to see how he fares at a stronger pace. I get that your opposition is price related to an extent though, but I'd still have him as a fair bit lower than a 40/1 shot, probably 20-25s.

[Kevloaf]

I wouldn't be a huge follower of rprs or anything, but they can be a useful guide, and he recorded a 150 rpr on the third run of his life, first run of the season and first for mullins. And done it pretty much on the bridle. The current strong fave recorded 162 on his Xmas win when ridden out, and I think both those ratings are fairly accurate. Yes constitution hill may have improvement to come fitness wise, or he may not. And maybe it won't take a special performance to win it this year. 15lbs of improvement could be enough to go close, which you'd have to say is a real possibility given ease of victory and inexperience.

If we put ratings to one side though, he's never ran at anything like champion hurdle pace, so it could easily be a shock to the system and jumping could well fall to pieces. Hopefully he faces decent opposition on his next run to see how he fares at a stronger pace. I get that your opposition is price related to an extent though, but I'd still have him as a fair bit lower than a 40/1 shot, probably 20-25s.

All fair - Not knocking his potential, I can see it, just looking at the price now. Usually he's one I'd have snuggly in the book but he's not and an easy avoid at the current price IMO especially when I've not got a book this year for that race

I think 40/1 is fair as it factors in his chance of turning up

I'd take 20/1 NRNB probably

[Kevloaf]

Better bet is 10/1 NRNB for the County Hurdle

He'd go off 5/1 at best and hack up

[Wayward Lad]

Better bet is 10/1 NRNB for the County Hurdle

He'd go off 5/1 at best and hack up

The Donellys have Kitzbuhel for the County

[Kevloaf]

The Donellys have Kitzbuhel for the County

They've also got State Man for the Champion Hurdle



Surely he won't get enough runs for the County?

[Liammet]

They've also got State Man for the Champion Hurdle



Surely he won't get enough runs for the County?

Just one more needed ?

[Istabraq]

The Donellys have Kitzbuhel for the County

If that's the route they take I think he'd be a prime candidate for excessive UK tax....

[DenmanSacre]

Just one more needed ?

Two before a handicap at the festival. Only ran 3 times.

[darlojim]

Two before a handicap at the festival. Only ran 3 times.

Hes ran 4 times

[Kevloaf]

Hes ran 4 times

I thought it had to be this season?

[Exar Essay]

Hes ran 4 times

Where was the fourth?

I thought it was only three? And that he needs one more run for the festival as he’s not a novice.

[darlojim]

Where was the fourth?

I thought it was only three? And that he needs one more run for the festival as he’s not a novice.

Kitzbuhel?

Angers
Fontaine
Auteuil
Punches

[Exar Essay]

Kitzbuhel?

Angers
Fontaine
Auteuil
Punches

Apologies. I was thinking of Anzadam.

So Kitzbuhel has had enough runs for the handicaps at the festival. Shame we didn’t get to see his mark at Windsor.

[darlojim]

Apologies. I was thinking of Anzadam.

So Kitzbuhel has had enough runs for the handicaps at the festival. Shame we didn’t get to see his mark at Windsor.

Yeah assumed that with people talking about the 2

I wonder if Willie enters Kitz for a hcap, then BHA capper will have to give him a rating

[Exar Essay]

Yeah assumed that with people talking about the 2

I wonder if Willie enters Kitz for a hcap, then BHA capper will have to give him a rating

Maybe the Betfair Hurdle? He’d be very interesting in the Coral Cup off low 150s.