2025 Champion Hurdle

[DenmanSacre]

Still don’t understand how they rated that 3lbs lower than his Champion Hurdle win.

No idea. His Fighting Fifth was better than the Champion Hurdle as well. Not sure I'll ever see a better hurdle performance than that Supreme.

[ComplyOrDie]

I’m not sure he would, though. I think he probably would, but really couldn’t be sure. Firstly, the only time I’ve ever thought he was tested was in the Supreme. But in retrospect, Dysart wasn’t travelling that well, and Jonbon was able to live with the pace too.

Secondly, there is still a major doubt whether CH is the same animal he once was. He passed the first test, but the next test is putting at least 7lb on to his seasonal reappearance. He certainly could, but there’s still doubt.

He'll go with them and scoot clear like she did.

The talk of them going 34/35mph the whole way round were wide of the mark if the speedometer is to be believed. 32mph was more like it, though they obviously hit 34mph a bit during, but it wasn't sustained.

Constitution Hill does 34-35mph in the Champion Hurdle he won and was quickening away from State Man too. I think a strongly run Champion Hurdle will suit Constitution Hill just as much, if not more, than Brighterdaysahead.

I agree with your second point though, as to whether he is back to being the animal he once was, obviously any chink in his armour will be exposed if they made it a serious test.

That said, Gordon doesn't have many gimmes but the Mares Hurdle would be one if he went that route.

I also think State Man is goosed. Not a chance he EVER finishes behind Winter Fog, like EVER, in a normal year so he's done, which means the winning margin, in my mind, was greatly exaggerated as she ended up having nothing to beat!

[opatcho]

That said, Gordon doesn't have many gimmes but the Mares Hurdle would be one if he went that route.

I also think State Man is goosed. Not a chance he EVER finishes behind Winter Fog, like EVER, in a normal year so he's done, which means the winning margin, in my mind, was greatly exaggerated as she ended up having nothing to beat!

1) yeah, doesnt have many darts so will go with the race that she has the best chance of winning
2) agreed, he's going into his 4 season. He picked off his wins last season against fairly weak fields

[Exar Essay]

He'll go with them and scoot clear like she did.

The talk of them going 34/35mph the whole way round were wide of the mark if the speedometer is to be believed. 32mph was more like it, though they obviously hit 34mph a bit during, but it wasn't sustained.

Constitution Hill does 34-35mph in the Champion Hurdle he won and was quickening away from State Man too. I think a strongly run Champion Hurdle will suit Constitution Hill just as much, if not more, than Brighterdaysahead.

I agree with your second point though, as to whether he is back to being the animal he once was, obviously any chink in his armour will be exposed if they made it a serious test.

That said, Gordon doesn't have many gimmes but the Mares Hurdle would be one if he went that route.

I also think State Man is goosed. Not a chance he EVER finishes behind Winter Fog, like EVER, in a normal year so he's done, which means the winning margin, in my mind, was greatly exaggerated as she ended up having nothing to beat!

I agree a peak Con Hill would. But I’m not sure the version we saw at Christmas would.

It was a course record though I presume? As in they didn’t get that wrong?

Cor strong views re State Man. That’s only one crap run. If there is an issue in the yard, that might explain it. His first race of the season was slightly underwhelming but was fine. The Racing Post actually rated it his best ever seasonal reappearance.

Out of interest, I think BDA has run to 168 there. Anything less and were to believe that Winter Fog and Fils Doudaries have run way below par - and they’re usually solid yardsticks. I’m not sure the RP will be brave enough to rate it similarly. I think they’ll go ~162.

I just hope she runs in the Champion Hurdle. What a race that would be.

[YoungHustler]

I also think State Man is goosed. Not a chance he EVER finishes behind Winter Fog, like EVER, in a normal year so he's done, which means the winning margin, in my mind, was greatly exaggerated as she ended up having nothing to beat!

I'd strongly disagree about State Man being done. Running an uncharacteristically bad race doesn't mean he's suddenly become a shit horse, especially when most people thought he would win today. He normally runs to high 160 RPRs but i would barely give him 140 today. Horses don't just drop off a cliff like that. I'm not his greatest fan but he just wasn't right today and ran completely flat as Townend has confirmed.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd strongly disagree about State Man being done. Running an uncharacteristically bad race doesn't mean he's suddenly become a shit horse, especially when most people thought he would win today. He normally runs to high 160 RPRs but i would barely give him 140 today. Horses don't just drop off a cliff like that. I'm not his greatest fan but he just wasn't right today and ran completely flat as Townend has confirmed.

I didn't call him shit, but he was never as good as some made out anyway. He was consistent in a real dire division in Ireland.

His time is up, Lossiemouth & Brighterdaysahead both beat him now, IMO.

I agree, he was definitely well below par today that it wasn't his true running, but he's been done twice by Brighterdaysahead. She's improving, State Man is not.

[Odddog]

The only 4YO going on 5YO I can see doing an Espoir D'Allen would be Kingland - 3 from 3 in France this season and last seen winning a Grade 1 with a RPR of 145. Anyone know whether they might consider running him? The French seem more adventurous this season .............

[DenmanSacre]

The only 4YO going on 5YO I can see doing an Espoir D'Allen would be Kingland - 3 from 3 in France this season and last seen winning a Grade 1 with a RPR of 145. Anyone know whether they might consider running him? The French seem more adventurous this season .............

Best of a bad bunch in France for that age. The best of them were bought over to Ireland the UK, and proved themselves exceptional. The best 4yo in France is Kaadam IMO but he's over fences.

Kingland wouldn't have the speed either.

[Liammet]

I think it was easy enough to deploy them tactics against State Man today, they took the sting out of his speed at a finish.

The problem is Constitution Hill will be able to go with them. Then it will be a battle up that hill, of which I would expect Constitution Hill to come out on top.

Having watched yesterday’s race a few times I agree CH would come out on top

Also,adopting the same tactics with Brighterdaysahead over a period of top class races will leave a mark

Wouldn’t surprise me if she was feeling the effects of yesterday’s exertions today

It was a great spectacle to watch what they did yesterday but I doubt whether they will attempt it or be allowed to attempt it going forward

can’t wait to see though

[Rooster Booster]

Having watched yesterday’s race a few times I agree CH would come out on top

Also,adopting the same tactics with Brighterdaysahead over a period of top class races will leave a mark

Wouldn’t surprise me if she was feeling the effects of yesterday’s exertions today

It was a great spectacle to watch what they did yesterday but I doubt whether they will attempt it or be allowed to attempt it going forward

can’t wait to see though

Yep, hindsight is a wonderful thing but I wonder if connections unintentionally or subconsciously got affected by all the hype surrounding State Man turning the tables and rather than trusting the superiority of their own horse they hatched a plan to defeat him disproportionate to the actual threat he posed. I would be amazed if State Man has ever performed 7 pounds higher than she did yesterday and it is now clear that she could have won that race comfortably without exerting as much energy. I mentioned earlier that as a backer I am genuinely concerned this will leave a mark. I hope I am wrong and I really hope they resist the temptation to run her again before March.

[Quevega]

Yep, hindsight is a wonderful thing but I wonder if connections unintentionally or subconsciously got affected by all the hype surrounding State Man turning the tables and rather than trusting the superiority of their own horse they hatched a plan to defeat him disproportionate to the actual threat he posed. I would be amazed if State Man has ever performed 7 pounds higher than she did yesterday and it is now clear that she could have won that race comfortably without exerting as much energy. I mentioned earlier that as a backer I am genuinely concerned this will leave a mark. I hope I am wrong and I really hope they resist the temptation to run her again before March.

I've not looked at the figures but if Gordon does sense a sniff at the Irish trainers title then I'd be very surprised if he turns down the chance of the Irish Champion hurdle with her.
And the O'Learys will always look to support the Irish races wherever possible if they have a good one.

If I remember rightly when apples Jade threw a poor performance in they mentioned her being in season etc.
It would be interesting to know how early BDA comes on in Spring and whether this was a factor last year.

Having said that, some mares improve for being in season, so swings both ways.

[Rooster Booster]

I've not looked at the figures but if Gordon does sense a sniff at the Irish trainers title then I'd be very surprised if he turns down the chance of the Irish Champion hurdle with her.
And the O'Learys will always look to support the Irish races wherever possible if they have a good one.

If I remember rightly when apples Jade threw a poor performance in they mentioned her being in season etc.
It would be interesting to know how early BDA comes on in Spring and whether this was a factor last year.

Having said that, some mares improve for being in season, so swings both ways.

Yeah good point. My concern is not just for my CH bets though I’d be lying if I said my motives were purely altruistic, but also with her future chasing campaign in mind. I genuinely think she could go close in a Gold Cup if she takes to the discipline and any pot hunting now however big the pot should not be at the expense of her future and any personal ambition of the trainer. I know we should trust the trainer but to your point there is a very shiny glittering prize that he has sought for years know flashing in front of his eyes and I’m not sure delayed gratification or impulse control are his biggest virtues.

Great point re season, that’s not something I had considered.

[Quevega]

Yeah good point. My concern is not just for my CH bets though I’d be lying if I said my motives were purely altruistic, but also with her future chasing campaign in mind. I genuinely think she could go close in a Gold Cup if she takes to the discipline and any pot hunting now however big the pot should not be at the expense of her future and any personal ambition of the trainer. I know we should trust the trainer but to your point there is a very shiny glittering prize that he has sought for years know flashing in front of his eyes and I’m not sure delayed gratification or impulse control are his biggest virtues.

Great point re season, that’s not something I had considered.

Having been at Punchestown the last season the title race was anywhere near close.
And the both of them running horses every other day during that week, I'll never take that factor out of my head.
Ruined the racing and from a punting perspective it was impossible.
And I'm sure the horses weren't that happy either.

[Irish Rugby]

That’s 3 races now for BDA and in relatively quick succession, 1 November, 23 November and 29 December, with the last race having quite the run to put it mildly yesterday. The DRF is only 4 weeks this weekend. Cheltenham will be just 5 weeks afterwards.

It will be the training feat of the decade to get her tuned and winning for all these. Guess they’ll have to see how she comes out of Sunday’s exertions but I wonder if the DRF may come too soon?

[Rooster Booster]

Having been at Punchestown the last season the title race was anywhere near close.
And the both of them running horses every other day during that week, I'll never take that factor out of my head.
Ruined the racing and from a punting perspective it was impossible.
And I'm sure the horses weren't that happy either.

It feels like you are gently managing my expectations ……I am predicting a very grumpy angry post with plenty of f bombs on the horizon. I’ve already stopped using X , racing post, constantly cancel and renew racing tv out of protest at being in bed with bookmakers and now it looks like I will be vetoing an airline I never fucking use anyway