2025 Champion Hurdle

[DenmanSacre]

Yeah, totally agree.
He's gonna smash his back legs into the top of one at some point, the way he takes off early at some of them. Nico is not really the boss of him IMO. He does most of it himself.

There area few solid each way bets at the minute and Lossie is one of them.
The risk is her getting beat the next day as Willie is almost certain to run her at 2 miles, and I think the Irish Champion (cos of the conditions of the race) would be favourite, so it depends how you think she would fare against State Man. But it's hard to imagine her getting stuffed, and I'd have her ahead of him personally.

Maybe Henderson and the owner could surprise us and send C Hill over. For him to run in anything else would really be beneath him.
Hendo has surprised us this year with his flexibility with Sir Gino, given his age etc, although the bets in the yard comments now make that much more understandable and explain why his price for the arkle never really budged much.

I also think Gaelic Warrior remains value, and his run the other day was decent and his movement right is now just a shift.
Kargese (given her form lines, and assuming all is well) is also a good each way option at 12-1 vs Brighterdaysahead.

Yeah agree with those. I think she'd beat State Man, no matter how the race is run. He's a perfectly decent grade 1 hurdler but he falls short of being a top class 2 miler so he's vulnerable this year.

I'm waiting to see Kargese out before I contemplate a bet on her for any race. Gaelic's price will remain for the time being and he may have to beat El Fabiolo or Energumene at the DRF.

[DenmanSacre]

Depends where she goes. If it’s Ireland and the DRF, then State Man, if she goes to the International, then potentially Constitution Hill. Let’s see how State Man runs today - he may strip fitter with a run under his belt at a track he likes.

I’d expect a showdown at the DRF with State Man personally.

I think she goes DRF and beats State Man. I doubt CH goes the International either and Anzadam is going there for Mullins isn't he?

[Carnage at Taunton]

Who else is going to beat her though?

Depends if she races against BDA or SM I guess.
Both could be capable of beating her over 2m.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think she goes DRF and beats State Man. I doubt CH goes the International either and Anzadam is going there for Mullins isn't he?

Hendo mentioned CH could go to the Intl if he tells them he needs another race, otherwise straight there.

[Carnage at Taunton]

She's definitely quick enough.
Just not as quick and strong as Constitution Hill has proven to be.
So I agree what you say to a point, but she'd be clear favourite without him, so your comments about her not being quick enough probably fit every other hurdler in the last 20 years or so.
Constitution Hill, on top form is clearly the best I've ever seen, so crabbing her as needing further and not being quick enough is wrong, in the context of Champion Hurdle credentials.

To add - The Champion hurdle isn't won by the horse with the best top speed, you need stamina also.
Many Champion hurdlers in history have not had the early speed of some of their opponents, but they have the stamina and heart to bust it at the end, when the faster types are crying enough.

And her being caught a bit cold, after having ran at steadier gallops in her previous races is understandable.
The distance beaten was not far off the distance early in the race.
The jockey will have her positioned/prepared better the next day.

I’m just posting on the proviso that both turn up as fit as they can be,and the evidence I’ve seen thus far from watching both horses race.
I think right now she would finish 2nd, although I may change on that after the race today!!and would have probably won a fair few recent runnings of the race.
So yes she’s quick enough, but not in this one against CH as it stands right now, which is what I meant, and maybe did not make that clear enough. Certainly we’rent crabbing her.
Hes the only current 2m hurdler I consider top
class.
As far as stamina goes,CH has plenty to go with his cruising speed and ability to quicken off a good pace.
Lossie has plenty of stamina but is behind CH on the other attributes needed to beat him imo.

[Quevega]

I’m just posting on the proviso that both turn up as fit as they can be,and the evidence I’ve seen thus far from watching both horses race.
I think right now she would finish 2nd, although I may change on that after the race today!!and would have probably won a fair few recent runnings of the race.
So yes she’s quick enough, but not in this one against CH as it stands right now, which is what I meant, and maybe did not make that clear enough. Certainly we’rent crabbing her.
Hes the only current 2m hurdler I consider top
class.
As far as stamina goes,CH has plenty to go with his cruising speed and ability to quicken off a good pace.
Lossie has plenty of stamina but is behind CH on the other attributes needed to beat him imo.

Yep, That part is not rocket science.

The issue was saying she was not quick enough, and needed further when compared with C Hill.
The issue I had with that is obvious.
It's a good job not everyone thinks along those lines.
Otherwise we'd have a one horse race. An actual one horse race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Both are entitled to be better at Cheltenham. But I just don't think you're going to find a horse that can come from behind CH and beat him. The problem is that the one race where the two fancied ones take it from the front was his best ever performance in the Supreme so how do you actually beat him at his best.

If you are inclined, 7/1 is probably the best e/w leg you'll get this far out for any race at Cheltenham for an e/w miltiple. She will win her next race so will shorten and she will go for the Champion Hurdle.

You should also factor in the risk of CH not making it, him being too brave at his hurdles (he does it every race now and he could come unstuck) and anything else that might pop up in the race (in his Supreme win, he could easily have been brought down by DD for example).

At 8/11 vs 7/1, Lossiemouth is the better bet at this time. If they were the same price on the day, it would be the other way round but CH will likely end up much shorter.

Don’t think I would be using the jumping of CH maybe coming unstuck or possibly being bought down once!!
When punting. Even if he is a short price.
Each to their own though.
Is 7/1 a great e/w price?
The win part is definitely iffy, and BDA repeats his win today then you could well have two big threats to the places.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yep, That part is not rocket science.

The issue was saying she was not quick enough, and needed further when compared with C Hill.
The issue I had with that is obvious.
It's a good job not everyone thinks along those lines.
Otherwise we'd have a one horse race. An actual one horse race.

There’s always some there to grab some prize money, but I take your point.

[DenmanSacre]

Don’t think I would be using the jumping of CH maybe coming unstuck or possibly being bought down once!!
When punting. Even if he is a short price.
Each to their own though.
Is 7/1 a great e/w price?
The win part is definitely iffy, and BDA repeats his win today then you could well have two big threats to the places.

I've not said I've backed her, but can see the appeal at 7/1. As far as I'm concerned, she's better than State Man and BDA (who likely won't turn up here as Gordon will want a short one for the week and hard to see what else he's got that would be 3/1 or less) so your getting 7/1 for her to turn up and make a profit on the place.

I don't think Constitution Hill will fall, but he's very brave at his hurdles and he's at more risk than others that are more careful. The upside is that he makes ground at every hurdle on all the other runners. Classic risk vs reward.

For those who like doing e/w multiples though, she is value at the moment and Q has mentioned others that could be added.

[Quevega]

Don’t think I would be using the jumping of CH maybe coming unstuck or possibly being bought down once!!
When punting. Even if he is a short price.
Each to their own though.
Is 7/1 a great e/w price?
The win part is definitely iffy, and BDA repeats his win today then you could well have two big threats to the places.

Why would Brighterdaysahead go for the champion hurdle ?
They've pretty much set their stall out.
They want to avoid Lossie they said. So why run against C Hill ?

7-1 each way is a 20% return vs a 50% win return at C Hill odds of 1/2.
with a "potential" win chance of 700%

IF they both run.
Obviously if injury strikes before either race again you've then got a 2-1 ish? shot at odds of 7-1

edit,
As we're discussing antepost bets in general.

Whats more iffy ? on 29th December.
7-1 Lossiemouth win part ?
8/11 C Hill win part ?

[Lobos]

Kala Konti to frank the Anzadam form today. Should win.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Why would Brighterdaysahead go for the champion hurdle ?
They've pretty much set their stall out.
They want to avoid Lossie they said. So why run against C Hill ?

7-1 each way is a 20% return vs a 50% win return at C Hill odds of 1/2.
with a "potential" win chance of 700%

IF they both run.
Obviously if injury strikes before either race again you've then got a 2-1 ish? shot at odds of 7-1

edit,
As we're discussing antepost bets in general.

Whats more iffy ? on 29th December.
7-1 Lossiemouth win part ?
8/11 C Hill win part ?

If BDA beats SM again, absolutely she should go CH imo.
But yes it does seem it won’t happen.
Not interested in either bet, not my style either one.
If I was a serious gambler I would probably go for the one I think will win, but I ain’t.
To add….. if I were looking at a 7/1 shot EW I would look for one that I thought had more chance of winning, and leave her alone.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I've not said I've backed her, but can see the appeal at 7/1. As far as I'm concerned, she's better than State Man and BDA (who likely won't turn up here as Gordon will want a short one for the week and hard to see what else he's got that would be 3/1 or less) so your getting 7/1 for her to turn up and make a profit on the place.

I don't think Constitution Hill will fall, but he's very brave at his hurdles and he's at more risk than others that are more careful. The upside is that he makes ground at every hurdle on all the other runners. Classic risk vs reward.

For those who like doing e/w multiples though, she is value at the moment and Q has mentioned others that could be added.

Fair enough

[Lobos]

Q, if BDA did beat SM again today (and she's been backed to do that) then they surely won't be able to resist going CH. Lossiemouth now has it to prove again and of course you have the fragility Question mark over Constitution. Who else is left in there?

[Quevega]

Q, if BDA did beat SM again today (and she's been backed to do that) then they surely won't be able to resist going CH. Lossiemouth now has it to prove again and of course you have the fragility Question mark over Constitution. Who else is left in there?

I think he'll beat her today on the tighter track at leopardstown.
but
IF she did win, then I'd say she'll be entered in both and unless C Hill is out of the Champion Hurdle, then they'll go for the mares.
They're not daft.
And i've got her at 25-1.
If Con Hill is a no show though, then they might fancy a crack at Lossie depending on how she goes next time v state man or over here in the international.
But thats doubtful also.