2025 Champion Hurdle

[Runragged]

If the clash does happen then I think he needs to run to a minimum of 170, anywhere near 180 then he’s a shoe in, of course.
I just doubt it’ll happen as it goes against everything Willie has said this season.

Think this is the key point but what makes it so tough to predict. We rattle on about what rating Lossiemouth may get, but it is an unknown as we don't know what she is capable of. Currently she has a best of 156 RPR but that was achieved over 2 1/2m on heavy ground... Her best over 2m is just 151. If we think Con Hill needs to run to a 170 then Lossie has to 'improve' by 1/2 stone on her best rating so far. More than possible from the potential she has shown, albeit not had the opportunities to produce. But then what can we expect from Con Hill? His return last year in this race was just 158 RPR but then that was more than enough to win comfortably and unlikely to be sufficient here. He can go well fresh, his return in the Fighting Fifth in 2022 saw him get a 174 RPR when comfortably beating Epatante and Not so Sleepy.

At the end of the day I think we all want to see Con Hill back on the track and running a creditable race, even if he goes down fighting to Lossiemouth. Connections seem confident on State Man turning around form with Brighterdaysahead after a narrow defeat and I suspect the same may be said if Con Hill was to be defeated for the first time here in similar fashion. The biggest question to arise would be if Con Hill comfortably beat Lossiemouth? Then what considering all the talk has been about the Champion hurdle this year for her? A related double on Con Hill to win the Xmas Hurdle and Lossiemouth to win the Mares hurdle pays 13.63/1 with Skybet currently and maybe worth considering for those heavily invested on her for the Champ Hurdle?

[DenmanSacre]

That 5/4 is tempting for CH.

[Quevega]

That 5/4 is tempting for CH.

Yeah
im tempted also.
just can’t work out how it might go in next 48 hours or so market wise.
got a feeling the closer we get the more he gets backed
Then I’ll think Lossiemouth is the value.
So I’ve decided to wait as I think I’d prefer to back the potential improvement, just not right now at odds on.
If she stays odds on for the day itself then I’ll probably back him then.

[ComplyOrDie]

Even as a die hard Constitution Hill fan, I really hope he doesn't stuff Lossiemouth (don't think he will, personally), I hope it goes to the line, so that we can look forward to the rematch either way at the festival.

Given the high esteem Lossiemouth seems to be held in, both by connections and the racing public (i.e. on here) should Constitution Hill beat her well he goes in as the best 2m hurdler ever for me.

[Lobos]

Such an intriguing race. Really don't know which way it will go and I suspect neither do connections. Shame it's just the 4 runners though as the last thing we want is a false race. I do hope there's a proper pace on but I fear not. We could end up none the wiser and spending another 1000 pages debating who'll come out top in March.

[Quevega]

Even as a die hard Constitution Hill fan, I really hope he doesn't stuff Lossiemouth (don't think he will, personally), I hope it goes to the line, so that we can look forward to the rematch either way at the festival.

Given the high esteem Lossiemouth seems to be held in, both by connections and the racing public (i.e. on here) should Constitution Hill beat her well he goes in as the best 2m hurdler ever for me.

I hope similar
cos if he does smash her then he’s massive odds on again in march
all the state man wasn’t right bullshit just don’t stack up as he’s not really ran any better since constitution showed him his arse.

[Craigy14]

Such an intriguing race. Really don't know which way it will go and I suspect neither do connections. Shame it's just the 4 runners though as the last thing we want is a false race. I do hope there's a proper pace on but I fear not. We could end up none the wiser and spending another 1000 pages debating who'll come out top in March.

Burdett Road only seems to know how to race one way so I’d expect he’ll go off from the front but be swamped maybe 2-3 furlongs out and won’t be able to go with them.

So the pace should be an honest one imo.

[ComplyOrDie]

I hope similar
cos if he does smash her then he’s massive odds on again in march
all the state man wasn’t right bullshit just don’t stack up as he’s not really ran any better since constitution showed him his arse.

He goes massively odds on and she ends up in the Mares, probably.

Not great for racing if that happens, IMO.

Said it before and I'll say it again, State Man has taken full advantage of a very average 2m division in Ireland, then as you say, got his arse handed to him when he faced a proper 2 miler.

[Quevega]

He goes massively odds on and she ends up in the Mares, probably.

Not great for racing if that happens, IMO.

Said it before and I'll say it again, State Man has taken full advantage of a very average 2m division in Ireland, then as you say, got his arse handed to him when he faced a proper 2 miler.

Yeah
he’s a solid consistent admirable horse who turns up and does his thing at about the 160-165 mark.
Id put her a few pounds better than her official of 160 so constitution got to be pretty good Thursday but I reckon 170+ be probably good enough
id say his supreme and champion hurdle was around the high 170s

[Lobos]

Even as a die hard Constitution Hill fan, I really hope he doesn't stuff Lossiemouth (don't think he will, personally), I hope it goes to the line, so that we can look forward to the rematch either way at the festival.

Given the high esteem Lossiemouth seems to be held in, both by connections and the racing public (i.e. on here) should Constitution Hill beat her well he goes in as the best 2m hurdler ever for me.

Agree. The fact they've sent her over to take him on this early is a massive statement and just cements how highly they rate her. He'll have to be very near his best to beat her and Buckley has already said they don't believe he will be at this point in time.

[DenmanSacre]

Lossie already at Kempton. Not messing around chancing the weather.

[Lobos]

Lossie already at Kempton. Not messing around chancing the weather.

They really aren't messing around are they.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Such an intriguing race. Really don't know which way it will go and I suspect neither do connections. Shame it's just the 4 runners though as the last thing we want is a false race. I do hope there's a proper pace on but I fear not. We could end up none the wiser and spending another 1000 pages debating who'll come out top in March.

He will take it up fairly early I reckon with Lossie stalking him, should be a fair pace I would think.
He has to draw the sting out of her.
Fascinating watch with no bet for me.

[Lobos]

He will take it up fairly early I reckon with Lossie stalking him, should be a fair pace I would think.
He has to draw the sting out of her.
Fascinating watch with no bet for me.

Personally think he'll either win comfortably or bomb/be pulled up.

[Yosser]

I had a go at the 11/8 yesterday. It could go either way. Nicky says he is the best he has ever seen him. I he is fit enough and beats her first time out then nothing has a chance in March. I have put him in a couple of doubles with The Jukebox Man and East India Express. If he loses but not by far, i will be all over getting him more onside for March. I think i am pretty much done with Con Hill for the ante post angle and am happy with my position but if he wins i will leave it as that. Fascinating either way.