2025 Champion Hurdle

[jrjr]

My thoughts, which are purely personal musings:

Lossie - goes Churdle - sets this season's standard and will be v difficult to beat
State Man - goes Churdle - returning champ has earned the right to defend
Con Hill - goes Churle (if fit) - biggest threat to Lossie if he retains most of his previous ability
Anzadem - goes Churdle - new kid on the block, v unexposed but impressive UK debut, reckon he could become a player
Sir Gino - goes Arkle - Henderson cooing about his fencing, reckon that deep down he knows he won't beat Lossie or a fit Con Hill. Will roll the dice with Con Hill and it still leaves the Donnellys with two darts at the Churdle.

All this will likely go belly up when Con Hill doesn't run at Xmas!

[Rooster Booster]

He could take two runs over fences still, Hendo openly telling us he's not seen anything jump a fence better, by the sounds of it they've done a lot of schooling already. Usually their first run fencing is a non event ran at a canter basically a schooling session, he probably gained more experience in a real race at Newcastle. The Arkle would be very much on his mind, you only get one chance at 2 miles over them fences in novice company. If they're already leaning that way then I'd expect he'll be entered at Kempton on the 27th and then could be seen taking in the game spirit at Newbury. A route taken by Sprintre Sacre and Altior on their way to the Arkle. Tried and tested.

Everything still hinging on Con Hill though really.

Has he EVER run a horse in the game spirit after only one chase run let alone a 5 year old. That sounds like a shit strategy if you are prioritising 2025 Champion Chase. It only suits those holding ante post vouchers for the Arkle. I genuinely don’t see how it makes sense for anybody else. You may be right but the current prices in no way represent the likelihood of it happening imo.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He could take two runs over fences still, Hendo openly telling us he's not seen anything jump a fence better, by the sounds of it they've done a lot of schooling already. Usually their first run fencing is a non event ran at a canter basically a schooling session, he probably gained more experience in a real race at Newcastle. The Arkle would be very much on his mind, you only get one chance at 2 miles over them fences in novice company. If they're already leaning that way then I'd expect he'll be entered at Kempton on the 27th and then could be seen taking in the game spirit at Newbury. A route taken by Sprintre Sacre and Altior on their way to the Arkle. Tried and tested.

Everything still hinging on Con Hill though really.

Altior was a 6 year old and had 4 runs before the Arkle
SS was a 5 year old and had 3 runs before.
Both had already had at least one chase run before Xmas.
Bit if a difference with a 4 year old without one chase run before Xmas.
Personally think all that’s crucial.

[Lobos]

I do feel for the horse (SG) if they go chasing now. Talk about being messed around. Could blow the poor lads mind !!

[Brooksie]

Has he EVER run a horse in the game spirit after only one chase run let alone a 5 year old. That sounds like a shit strategy if you are prioritising 2025 Champion Chase. It only suits those holding ante post vouchers for the Arkle. I genuinely don’t see how it makes sense for anybody else. You may be right but the current prices in no way represent the likelihood of it happening imo.

Has he ever been in a position where he needed to do that? It's an unusual circumstance, a circumstance that can quite easily break a trend or shift a line of thinking.. and lets be honest he's no ordinary 5 year old, he's built like a cart horse and he apparently jumps like an Olympic show jumper. If he goes to Kempton on the 27th and wings everything head in chest, he'll be treated like Sprinter/Altior. But again if Con Hill bombs out he'd most probably be declared a non-runner anyway.

[Wayward Lad]

There most certainly has been a tightening of the market around CH over the last week ( 11/2, 5/1 and 9/2 long gone) even though there was two potential challengers winning at the weekend and winning well…….very strange, dont know what to make of it

So Lossiemouth AND SIr Gino shorten after impressive performances and then Anzadam wins and following the RP article shortens from 33/1 best, 25/1 av to 20/1 a cross the board yesterday

Maybe bookmakers have hedged some liabilities at larger prices on CH, following his withdrawal and poor gallop etc and that’s why the price has contracted, when maybe it shouldn’t have ?

[Brooksie]

I do feel for the horse (SG) if they go chasing now. Talk about being messed around. Could blow the poor lads mind !!

Don't feel too much for him, he probably couldn't care what he's hopping over.

[Brooksie]

There most certainly has been a tightening of the market around CH over the last week ( 11/2, 5/1 and 9/2 long gone) even though there was two potential challengers winning at the weekend and winning well…….very strange, dont know what to make of it

So Lossiemouth AND SIr Gino shorten after impressive performances and then Anzadam wins and following the RP article shortens from 33/1 best, 25/1 av to 20/1 a cross the board yesterday

Maybe bookmakers have hedged some liabilities at larger prices on CH, following his withdrawal and poor gallop etc and that’s why the price has contracted, when maybe it shouldn’t have ?

I think it was Q that mentioned it a few weeks back but it would be quite amusing if both mares turn up, con hill turns up. A race built for ages... and then Anzadam goes and does an Espoir D'allen winning by 20 odd lengths lmao

[ComplyOrDie]

I do wonder, with State Man losing to Brighterdaysahead whether this has any impact on sending more to the Champion Hurdle for the Donnelly's.

They already know State Man can't beat Constitution Hill. He's also not at his best at Cheltenham. I'm not saying he won't turn up, provided all is well with him, he will, but they'll want the young pretenders to have a crack too, to see where they stand, one or both can go chasing next season if need be, they are plenty young enough.

Before all this they need to pass tests prior to the festival, if they don't they'll probably pull stumps for the season with a view to chasing the next.

[Rooster Booster]

Has he ever been in a position where he needed to do that? It's an unusual circumstance, a circumstance that can quite easily break a trend or shift a line of thinking.. and lets be honest he's no ordinary 5 year old, he's built like a cart horse and he apparently jumps like an Olympic show jumper. If he goes to Kempton on the 27th and wings everything head in chest, he'll be treated like Sprinter/Altior. But again if Con Hill bombs out he'd most probably be declared a non-runner anyway.

Are you recommending him as a solid bet for the Arkle?

[Brooksie]

Currently...no. I'd want to see entries at Christmas. I just wouldn't be too quick to write off the Arkle. They obviously see him a bit different.

[Quevega]

Currently...no. I'd want to see entries at Christmas. I just wouldn't be too quick to write off the Arkle. They obviously see him a bit different.

I had done after the race at the weekend but the betting suggests it's still a distinct possibility even though it does not follow Hendersons normal MO.

He's actually priced up like he's definitely going arkle and has already won a beginners chase - his current price is absolutely one of the worst out there, especially given the doubts.

I'd also take Henderson's schooling comments with a pinch of salt as we've heard this sort of shit before. Especially after a race when he's all excited.

It's like Aiden O'Brien declaring every champion 2 year old to be the best he's ever trained, only for it not to be true, ever.

The Game Spirit option is extremely unlikely and you're probably way off with that, as going for an open grade 2 on your second start having just turned 5 is not likely at all.
Could happen I suppose if nothing of any note enters, which in this day and age is very possible. But I doubt it very much.

[Kautostar]

Hendo could just keep schooling SG over fences in the meantime while dual entering him in the Xmas hurdle and the wayward lad novices chase both at kempton. If CH is back then it’s chasing, if not he can step in again and stay hurdling until next season.

[BookieBasher]

Interesting stat from Daryl Carter on the latest Betfair video. Sir Gino won on Saturday pretty much on the bridle in 3m47. Lossiemouths fastest 2m time is 3m58. Of course every race is run differently but no doubt Sir Gino can go faster and so how much faster can Lossiemouth go? Hopefully we’ll find out in March

[darlojim]

Interesting stat from Daryl Carter on the latest Betfair video. Sir Gino won on Saturday pretty much on the bridle in 3m47. Lossiemouths fastest 2m time is 3m58. Of course every race is run differently but no doubt Sir Gino can go faster and so how much faster can Lossiemouth go? Hopefully we’ll find out in March

Is that not a complete pointless stat? Not having a go at you but hes a clown that bloke

Lossiemouth hasnt race at Newcastle, and likely not on ground that quick before

Hard enough comparing times from different races on the same day, never mind times from different courses