2025 Champion Hurdle

[Quevega]

Only a prime Constitution Hill will trouble her.
She'd cruise past the rest.

[Lobos]

Well she beat a 3 miler who didn’t have his ground.
But yes, she did it well.
Did not see anything to scare proper good 2 milers though.

I'm not biting Carnage. Too old for that.

[darlojim]

Only a prime Constitution Hill will trouble her.
She'd cruise past the rest.

Yeppp

And thats something that ain't happening

She wins.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Only a prime Constitution Hill will trouble her.
She'd cruise past the rest.

Maybe, maybe not.
She’s proper exciting though.

A prime CH is rated 177,so trouble her is probably an understatement!!

[FinalFurlong91]

I'd like to see her beat state man before believing the hype

[Quevega]

I'd like to see her beat state man before believing the hype

I think the big fat bitch that beat him the last day is evidence enough for me.
Lossiemouth would smash her arse off.

[FinalFurlong91]

I think the big fat bitch that beat him the last day is evidence enough for me.
Lossiemouth would smash her arse off.

So would a race fit state man

Cantered all over her

I see lossie may be fed to the hill at Christmas. A race to savour, hopefully both get there.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Ooh there’s a lot of bluster going on !!

[Carnage at Taunton]

So would a race fit state man

Cantered all over her

I see lossie may be fed to the hill at Christmas. A race to savour, hopefully both get there.

Doubt she will turn up.
Be great to see it, especially if CH is back to his best, how much she have to find?
He can’t possibly be back to his best though, not by then.

[Brooksie]

I'd like to see her beat state man before believing the hype

same, in my eyes today was a complete non event, I'll become a believer when I see her against the boys in a truly run affair. If she did run in the Christmas hurdle then we might well get to see that sooner rather than later.

[Quevega]

So would a race fit state man

Cantered all over her

I see lossie may be fed to the hill at Christmas. A race to savour, hopefully both get there.

Yeah, not one to go too much on race fitness myself as this was a big grade 1 he had won before. And it's a guessing game how fit any horse is approaching any race. Even trainers get that wrong with the eye test on the gallops from time to time.

And I've been unconvinced with State Man's finishes for a few races now. I've been his chief defender because he's admirably consistent and turns up and races all the time, but looks to have hit a ceiling around the low to mid 160's.

He often flattens out, it's just that usually his first kick gets him two or three lengths ahead.

But there is a chance he was not as fit as Willie expected of course.
All the fat talk though needs to be taken with a pinch as they will surely have weighed him.
So they'd know for a fact if he was much heavier than normal immediately prior to the race, or not.

I doubt Willie will go xmas hurdle with a 24 day gap, but that would be some race and might be the best time to catch Con Hill.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm not biting Carnage. Too old for that.

Weren’t meant as a wind up Lobos
Thats what happened today
Lossiemouth beat a stayer whose best form is on soft ground.
Yes she did it well, but it’s not form in relation to scaring CH horses.

[DenmanSacre]

She didn't even need to improve on last year's performances to win today - her final circuit time considerably slower than the Royal Bond so they've set it up for her. She did show she can make a mistake and recover quickly though. At this moment, she deserves to be favourite for the Champion Hurdle but is too short.

Sir Gino didn't need to improve either to win the Fighting Fifth but a slight career best so far for me. He didn't do anything Lossiemouth and State Man wouldn't do to that field, but you can see he's done that easily. Lots of scope for improvement.

As a comparison to Constitution Hills Fighting Fifth win, I have him just over 2 stone behind CH on a time rating. Racing Post go 156 RPR compared with CH's 174 and a TS of 132 compared with CHs 169 so they've got it even further behind.

I hope we get CH back to his best as he'd show just how good he is with those 2 in behind. On pure time ratings, CHs Supreme and Fighting Fifth win are more than a stone and half clear of anything State Man has done and Lossiemouth and Sir Gino a bit further behind. They (Lossie and Gino) obviously haven't had a race set up to get a great time but there's currently a wide gap in what Constitution Hill has done and what they've done, even beyond their official ratings. State Man won't beat either of the young pretenders at Cheltenham IMO.

I will caveat it by saying CH hasn't got anywhere near his best rating though since Newcastle and I doubt he can reach those heights again.

[Quevega]

She didn't even need to improve on last year's performances to win today - her final circuit time considerably slower than the Royal Bond so they've set it up for her. She did show she can make a mistake and recover quickly though. At this moment, she deserves to be favourite for the Champion Hurdle but is too short.

Sir Gino didn't need to improve either to win the Fighting Fifth but a slight career best so far for me. He didn't do anything Lossiemouth and State Man wouldn't do to that field, but you can see he's done that easily. Lots of scope for improvement.

As a comparison to Constitution Hills Fighting Fifth win, I have him just over 2 stone behind CH on a time rating. Racing Post go 156 RPR compared with CH's 174 and a TS of 132 compared with CHs 169 so they've got it even further behind.

I hope we get CH back to his best as he'd show just how good he is with those 2 in behind. On pure time ratings, CHs Supreme and Fighting Fifth win are more than a stone and half clear of anything State Man has done and Lossiemouth and Sir Gino a bit further behind. They (Lossie and Gino) obviously haven't had a race set up to get a great time but there's currently a wide gap in what Constitution Hill has done and what they've done, even beyond their official ratings. State Man won't beat either of the young pretenders at Cheltenham IMO.

I will caveat it by saying CH hasn't got anywhere near his best rating though since Newcastle and I doubt he can reach those heights again.

Yep. totally on board with most of that.
She's too short for sure which is why I'd not backed her till today's WTAF.
Very confident sh'ed win last week and today with those conditions/opposition.

I'd also say she would definitely have a capital P for me and seems bound to improve further as the yard feel she has done each off season.
That's why I think she beats all the rest and only if Con Hill gets back to his best would I have doubts and they'd be serious doubts as he's as special a horse as I've seen (Just not seen him enough recently unfortunately)
At least this division is hotting up for the first time in a while.

[Lobos]

Weren’t meant as a wind up Lobos
Thats what happened today
Lossiemouth beat a stayer whose best form is on soft ground.
Yes she did it well, but it’s not form in relation to scaring CH horses.

It really is. Just ask the other trainers . The bookies have given their view as well. She's the one to beat at this point , there's no disputing that. She'll be even stronger for dropping back to 2 miles as well. I don't see any chinks in her armour. I loved what she did today and there's plenty more to come. They'll go International again and then the big one.