2025 Champion Hurdle

[Carnage at Taunton]

We know how good State Man is, we don’t know how good Lossiemouth is, but we can be pretty sure she’s improved, but how much is anyone’s guess.
Think I would just simplify things if I were having a bet(I’m not) and go with the pick of the stable jockey.
So SM wins and with the run under her belt BDA will give L a close race for 2nd.

[Lobos]

Why is Lossiemouth shorter than State Man in the CH betting? Should he not be outright fav especially as he's short to beat her in the Morgianna. Is it purely down to bets placed or do they think she'll improve past him by March?

[Carnage at Taunton]

Why is Lossiemouth shorter than State Man in the CH betting? Should he not be outright fav especially as he's short to beat her in the Morgianna. Is it purely down to bets placed or do they think she'll improve past him by March?

I don’t think the bookies know to be honest.
None of the prices appeal , too much unknown imo

[riccirich]

Why is Lossiemouth shorter than State Man in the CH betting? Should he not be outright fav especially as he's short to beat her in the Morgianna. Is it purely down to bets placed or do they think she'll improve past him by March?

She has 6lb to find on him on his best rating over the course of the season, and she's only 5 so could definitely see that happening. Add in the general consensus that state man doesn't seem quite at his best around cheltenham, compared to his Irish runs, and she probably wouldn't even need to improve that much to beat him.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I don’t know whether they would pick the phone up and speak to each other……I know some trainers do at times.
I am certain though that both WM and NH will be keeping a close eye on each others horses this weekend with the race in Ireland and the work of Con Hill.
I wonder come Monday how much more we will know re festival targets/chances for Lossiemouth, Con Hill and Sir Gino?

[Eggs]

I don’t know whether they would pick the phone up and speak to each other……I know some trainers do at times.
I am certain though that both WM and NH will be keeping a close eye on each others horses this weekend with the race in Ireland and the work of Con Hill.
I wonder come Monday how much more we will know re festival targets/chances for Lossiemouth, Con Hill and Sir Gino?

….bits of discussion here;

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/analysis-and-tips-for-the-betfair-chase-punchestown-and-more/221981

[Runragged]

Why is Lossiemouth shorter than State Man in the CH betting? Should he not be outright fav especially as he's short to beat her in the Morgianna. Is it purely down to bets placed or do they think she'll improve past him by March?

Because people love the 'unknown' aspect and would rather bet on that than what is in front of them. With State Man we know he can't beat Constitution Hill if he is at his best. However, we don't know if Lossiemouth can beat him as she hasn't been tested enough to find out. Also, conditions of the Morgiana suit State Man so much more than Lossiemouth from what we have seen.

I've already made it clear in past posts whose camp I am in, but lets make it clear with Lossiemouth. Her first run in open company saw her beat an out of form Love Envoi getting 1lb along with handicapper First Street and Rubaud who barely stays 2m let alone 2m 1f up a hill. She has then run twice against her own sex over 2 1/2m beating mid to low 140 rated mares. She was an exceptional 3yo/4yo but has masses to prove still especially in slowly run 2m grade 1's which invariably this race is and conditions that State Man excels in.

There is also the argument that the Champion Hurdle may suit Lossiemouth better also. Again, a Champion Hurdle is usually a decently run race with a stiff finish so would favour a horse with the proven stamina over further. Finally, if looking at State Man's RPR's then his top 5 have all come away from Cheltenham despite racing there in the last 3 years. They were also all in fields of 4 or 5 runners once again proving that he seems to excel in small field 2m contests.

With Brighterdaysahead also set to line up who seemed to get caught for pace in last years mares novice hurdle then I see absolutely no way she would be able to beat State Man granted likely conditions barring a below par run from SM. Would be interesting to see what they do with BDA regarding instructions though as she was able to stamp her class last time on a weaker field. Will they look to make the running again and try beat State Man from the front? But then you may be playing into Lossiemouth's hands were she also to line up if making it a test of stamina...

Guess we will just have to wait and see...

[Lobos]

Cheers. So if Lossiemouth gets beat by a length or so and is pushed out for the Churdle then that's the time to back her. I'm assuming State Man will go fav for March if he wins.

[Kevloaf]

Cheers. So if Lossiemouth gets beat by a length or so and is pushed out for the Churdle then that's the time to back her. I'm assuming State Man will go fav for March if he wins.

If she gets beaten and pushed out for the Mares Hurdle, then it's time to back her

[Kautostar]

If she gets beaten and pushed out for the Mares Hurdle, then it's time to back her

If she gets beaten she’ll likely shorten for the mares hurdle

[Kevloaf]

If she gets beaten she’ll likely shorten for the mares hurdle

Yeah probably

That's why I said exactly what I said

[HoldenTheReins]

Nico said Con Hill would be working this morning. Major drift for the Fighting Fifth and Sir Gino smashed it.

A shame really but likely he won't be the Con Hill we know.

[Quevega]

Not looking good for CH

[ComplyOrDie]

Nope. Exchanges tend not to lie too much, though they have been known to

[Runragged]

Don't think the 12/1 Sir Gino for Champion Hurdle will last long at B365. Everyone else priced up have it at single figures.