2025 Champion Hurdle

[Lobos]

It's not hard at all to see Lossiemouth improving 7lbs and if ,after his troubled season last Year , C Hill dips 7lbs then there's your stone turnaround right there and then you have that mental allowance.
Lossie is 5 going on 6 so we can fully expect some further improvement whereas C Hill turns 8 in January and potentially may not be able to hit the heights of two years ago. All just pie in the sky talk I know but IMO it's very dangerous dismissing a dynamic improving Mare so easily. Remember, 4 out of the last 9 Champion Hurdles have gone to Mares and IMO Lossie will prove to be better than all of those previous winners.

[Yosser]

I don't think I Lossie will beat CH, but I don't necessarily agree with this part.

It feels like getting Lossie to the Champion Hurdle has been a 2 year plan, first mentioned by Willie on 29th April 2023, then repeated January 2024, March 2024 and May 2024 with the specific plan of Mares Hurdle then Champion (or even Stayers Hurdle mentioned initially FWIW). Add to that the certainty with which the owners have described her plans in OJA: "Our great white hope, she will follow a Champion Hurdle campaign this year. We think she's top class", compared to what they say about Gaelic Warrior (as another of their big hopes for this year): "There are very few horses with as much natural ability as him. We haven't made any plans, but it wouldn't surprise me if Willie aims him at the QMCC", and it just feels like they want her to have a go.

I think the only thing that stops her going Champion Hurdle is either her completely bombing out, which is definitely possible, or Willie not thinking one of his others can win the Mares Hurdle. I'm not convinced finishing second to CH will be a factor at all if they think she's better than State Man.

If Jade De Grugy does indeed go chasing then Willie has a proper horse in Kargese for the MH. I am properly keen on her. She is an absolute machine and let's not forget, she hasn't settled in any of her races yet and still ran incredibly well. If she gets that bit of her game corrected which i assume she will being with Willie then she becomes almost unbeatable in my opinion. Golden Ace has improvement in her but she has to improve to get to Dysart Enos and i don't think Dysart Enos is as good as Kargese. Willie also has Gala Marceau as Paul has alluded to. A proper prep and better placed season, it's hard to ignore her juvenile form. She is better than that. Then there is another forgotten horse, Zenta. Another with bundles of ability coming back after a botched season. If she is given a hurdles campaign with another proper prep behind her then she becomes a contender also IMO. Willie will be plenty stocked in the Mares. Both he and Ricci has said for ages Lossie is a CH horse so you would have to think thats where she will be aimed. It all comes down to where she is placed that changes that. If she is pitched in against strong opposition and gets beaten well then things might change.

[Lobos]

Agree Yosser , Willie has plenty of Mares outside of Lossiemouth that would be ultra competitive in the Mares Hurdle.

Not sure why you say Golden Ace has to improve to get to Dysart ? GA is officially rated a Stone better that DE over Hurdles so it's definitely the other way around. Anyway, that's one for the Mares Hurdle talk.

[Craigy14]

Good discussion but all irrelevant until we see Constitution Hill (CH) in the Fighting Fifth (FF) imo.

I also don’t think using rpr’s for CH recently really help as in the FF Nico is hardly going to get after him etc in his first run of the season just to post a big figure. He’s also running against, let’s face it, crap, so unless he did get after him and win by 20 odd lengths his rpr was never going to look great. His previous rpr at Aintree I think we can all agree and put down to the distance, well I would given what he does at 2m. Until we see him again I don’t think there’s much to discuss.

He comes back and shows the same zest he wins the Chanpion Hurdle, it’s as simple as that for me.

Regarding the price I think Charlie makes a great point, the 5/2 would look huge to a lot of people on all known form, but to others with him having a curtailed season and issues it wouldn’t appeal. The cut to what he is now, I’d lean to the side of definitely too risky until we see him again and by then he’s likely odds on post race.

[Yosser]

Agree Yosser , Willie has plenty of Mares outside of Lossiemouth that would be ultra competitive in the Mares Hurdle.

Not sure why you say Golden Ace has to improve to get to Dysart ? GA is officially rated a Stone better that DE over Hurdles so it's definitely the other way around. Anyway, that's one for the Mares Hurdle talk.

True Lobos. It's based on Dysart Enos beating her by 9L and not being given the chance to confirm the form. No way is GA a stone better but on ratings it's there to be shot at. I just love the fact that there is a Golden Horn mare making waves in the NH sphere. I do like Golden Ace but i question the true running of that MNH last season which is normal when 2 hotpots get turned over. I actually backed her on the day to accompany JDG and BDA and got an unexpected result. She has shades of Fastorslow about her, people will keep crabbing the form and shouting 'fluke' until she does it again. Very interesting to see where she is placed this season. Jeremy Scott says she likes soft ground so let's see.

Constitution Hill for me is just unbeatable if back to anywhere near. State Man is still a very good horse but the suspicion now it that he has had his zenith. I think Lossiemouth will improve past him this season (just) but all will be irrelevant anyway because the machine will be skipping past them on the bridle coming up the hill

[Lobos]

I also questioned the MNH running (biased as I had both JDG and BDA at nice prices) but , having watched the race back a few times, I do think GA won it fair and square. She was always sat just behind the other two during the race and actually didn't jump as fluently as them. She was the last to come off the bridle and was also going away from BDA at the finish. I do believe she has been underestimated.

[Odin]

Willie almost always opts for the lowest hanging fruit and I would add to that, that he's a creature of habit.

This is the most interesting part about the Lossie conundrum for me. Willie definitely is a creature of habit, and he always likes to keep his options open, but to some extent the cards are played here based on all the quotes we have (which may or may not be true thoughts, but I don't doubt them given all available evidence). It'll be really interesting to see if Lossie does bomb if that's the end of the Champion Hurdle dream or if he persists like he did with Facile Vega over 2m last year - more from a psychological understanding than anything else

[Odin]

Willie has a proper horse in Kargese for the MH. I am properly keen on her. She is an absolute machine and let's not forget, she hasn't settled in any of her races yet and still ran incredibly well. If she gets that bit of her game corrected which i assume she will being with Willie then she becomes almost unbeatable in my opinion.

Completely agree, think she's an absolute weapon and that some of the other horses are moving around her. Not convinced that's the case for Lossie but I can see Kargese vying for favouritism - for right or wrong - if they meet in the Mares next year (a combination of Lossie must have disappointed to go there and Kargese potentially winning a couple of Mares races).

[Odin]

I also questioned the MNH running (biased as I had both JDG and BDA at nice prices) but , having watched the race back a few times, I do think GA won it fair and square. She was always sat just behind the other two during the race and actually didn't jump as fluently as them. She was the last to come off the bridle and was also going away from BDA at the finish. I do believe she has been underestimated.

The MNH was a alowly run race turning into a sprint. Golden Ace won fair and square, no doubt, but given her flat rather than NH breeding, I would have been disappointed if she hadn't won (admittedly with massive hindsight bias). If the Mares Hurdle turns out the same way this year, she'll beat them all. I'm much less convinced in a well run race, which feels likely with a keen going Kargese in there.

[charlie]

This is the most interesting part about the Lossie conundrum for me. Willie definitely is a creature of habit, and he always likes to keep his options open, but to some extent the cards are played here based on all the quotes we have (which may or may not be true thoughts, but I don't doubt them given all available evidence). It'll be really interesting to see if Lossie does bomb if that's the end of the Champion Hurdle dream or if he persists like he did with Facile Vega over 2m last year - more from a psychological understanding than anything else

What would be even more interesting is let's say Willie lets her take on State Man over 2m and she wins hard fought by a length - what do they do then? On a line through State Man who Con Hill beat with consummate ease, that leaves them in a tough spot. Would they really persist with 2m and go up against the freakishly good Con Hill or target the mares which even now we know she'd win to bag a winner on day one. Annoyingly, I can see this being one of the seasons long drawn 'what if' sagas and what would be superb is if she took her chance in open company and was awesome, or lost and it made the picture much clearer for all of us. I think we all want that to be fair.

[Quevega]

I think Constitution Hill is easily the best horse (not convinced he was ever that poorly last year anyway) It's not like he'd done a pelvis or tendon or anything.
Sounds like he had a cold to me.

He should have no problems mopping up any races he turns up for I reckon.
The only horse in training that could get near him IMO is Lossiemouth.

Because I would put her already on a par with State Man, as her performances have been under rated (IMO) based on who she's beaten, but it is clear to see that she has more left in her races.
Therefore she is definitely the right age, profile and style and sex to get closer to CH than any other horse in training.
Think she'll be just short of beating him though myself as long as CH shows no degradation.

Problem for CH is he's unlikely to be tested prior to March.
If Lossie runs against State Man at some point I reckon Townend would ride her. But it would be a very difficult choice for him for sure, so no surprise if he went the other way.

[charlie]

I think Constitution Hill is easily the best horse (not convinced he was ever that poorly last year anyway) It's not like he'd done a pelvis or tendon or anything.
Sounds like he had a cold to me.

He should have no problems mopping up any races he turns up for I reckon.
The only horse in training that could get near him IMO is Lossiemouth.

Because I would put her already on a par with State Man, as her performances have been under rated (IMO) based on who she's beaten, but it is clear to see that she has more left in her races.
Therefore she is definitely the right age, profile and style and sex to get closer to CH than any other horse in training.
Think she'll be just short of beating him though myself as long as CH shows no degradation.

Problem for CH is he's unlikely to be tested prior to March.
If Lossie runs against State Man at some point I reckon Townend would ride her. But it would be a very difficult choice for him for sure, so no surprise if he went the other way.

The first point is a good one. We don't really have any wellbeing question marks and it looked like not running him was precautionary. Classic Nicky.

I think it's a stretch putting her on a par with State Man though. Barring Con Hill, State Man is just a Grade 1 machine capable of running to an RPR of 170. I would agree that Lossiemouth's performances have been under rated due to how easy she wins, but, IMO there is a world apart from being a good novice and consistently beating the same fillies 2-3L, to then rising to reach the heights State Man has (which I think have been generally under appreciated)

Not being tested prior to March is a big issue for most horses but thats not a negative that can be levelled at Con Hill. He raced twice before the Supreme and twice before the CH, winning all those races by an average margin of 14L and barely coming out of second gear, so he has proven he doesn't need a test prior to March.

Would be entirely fair to counter and say that doesnt apply to Lossiemouth. If Willie gives her an easy season then not being tested properly is far more likely to be an issue if she were to go CH.

[Craigy14]

Completely agree, think she's an absolute weapon and that some of the other horses are moving around her. Not convinced that's the case for Lossie but I can see Kargese vying for favouritism - for right or wrong - if they meet in the Mares next year (a combination of Lossie must have disappointed to go there and Kargese potentially winning a couple of Mares races).

Does a keen Kargese get home in the mares? Do you think she’s as good as Lossiemouth as a juvenile?

If either of those are no then surely 7/1 is not a great price about a juvenile going into open company. Lossiemouth is much better imo, maybe WPM has found the trick into them going into open company but I’d be surprised if they all hit the heights Lossiemouth was able to.

[Odin]

Does a keen Kargese get home in the mares? Do you think she’s as good as Lossiemouth as a juvenile?

Hand on heart, not sure on either - so maybe the 7/1 isn't that great right now but doesn't necessarily mean my point about Kargese becoming favourite won't ring true in the future.

It's probably a fairly easy sell that Kargese doesn't get home in the Mares if she's keen, but the Lossiemouth comparison is harder - when considering juvenile form alone which is all we have for Kargese. Personally, I think the opposition in Lossie's juvenile year was weaker than Kargese's and I don't think Lossie would have beaten Sir Gino or Majborough (although she may have got closer). There's also a monumentally crazy and contentious form link in that Lossie beat that years Galway Hurdle winner Zarak The Brave by 1.5 lengths in the Punchestown Grade 1 Juvenile; Kargese beat this year's Galway Hurdle winner Nurburgring by 2l in the same race. So yeah, I think it's possible Kargese is as good as Lossiemouth was (in engine terms), but I don't necessarily think she's shown it due to her keenness, which could easily cause problems for the first of your two questions...

[Craigy14]

Hand on heart, not sure on either - so maybe the 7/1 isn't that great right now but doesn't necessarily mean my point about Kargese becoming favourite won't ring true in the future.

It's probably a fairly easy sell that Kargese doesn't get home in the Mares if she's keen, but the Lossiemouth comparison is harder - when considering juvenile form alone which is all we have for Kargese. Personally, I think the opposition in Lossie's juvenile year was weaker than Kargese's and I don't think Lossie would have beaten Sir Gino or Majborough (although she may have got closer). There's also a monumentally crazy and contentious form link in that Lossie beat that years Galway Hurdle winner Zarak The Brave by 1.5 lengths in the Punchestown Grade 1 Juvenile; Kargese beat this year's Galway Hurdle winner Nurburgring by 2l in the same race. So yeah, I think it's possible Kargese is as good as Lossiemouth was (in engine terms), but I don't necessarily think she's shown it due to her keenness, which could easily cause problems for the first of your two questions...

Aww of course she could become fav agree on that but her price now is based on what Lossiemouth did last year imo.

Aye the juvenile form can be hard to weigh up, I suppose I’m more going on connections as well as what we’ve seen. I don’t get the feeling from WPM that Kargese is at the same level as Lossiemouth was, obviously that’s mostly pure speculation on my part but I don’t think he will or has ever mentioned her being a future champion hurdle horse which I’m hoping Lossiemouth proves herself to have a crack at that and he has alluded to several times. You could be right and the juveniles were just a cut above Lossiemouths year but I still wouldn’t have Kargese at her level.

Shes probably on a par with Gala Marceau which is no shame as she was a Grade 1 winning juvenile as well.

For what it’s worth, I do like Kargese haha!