2025 Champion Hurdle

[DeeBee]

I see paddy have cut or should i say butchered Constitution Hill into 11/8.

They have also cut Ballyburn for the Arkle - into 5/2… maybe the 2 are related

[Yosser]

Steadily closing in the market until Nicky's stable tour when he tells everyone CH is fine and then he goes evens.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Well if CH is reported as fine then no surprise to see odds shortened imo. He’s a way above anything else.
Hes been 5/2 long enough for anyone to get involved anyway.

[Ice]

Well if CH is reported as fine then no surprise to see odds shortened imo. He’s a way above anything else.
Hes been 5/2 long enough for anyone to get involved anyway.

Of the short priced horses the 5/2 con hill and 3/1 teauphoo were the ones i thought were worth backing.

[nortonscoin200]

I wouldn’t want Constitution Hill onside at 2-1 or 5-2.

It’s 19 months since he posted a mark of 177 in last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Since then a 167 at Aintree and a 163 at Kempton last Christmas.
We haven’t seen him on the track since and he’ll be 8 in January.
Is he still unbeatable or will he struggle to get anywhere near the levels he showed at his best?
For me the jury is very much out.
State Man has hit 170 twice since Constitution Hill’s 2023 Festival triumph.
And Lossiemouth could quite conceivably still be on the upgrade.
Willie Mullins is the last trainer you want to see as the main rival to Con Hill proving he’s still got it 10 months after he last set foot on a racecourse.
So as shorties go, Teahupoo yes but Constitution Hill a definite no at this stage.
I genuinely hope he returns as good as ever but we can all think of many who are never quite the same after such an absence.
So proof needed in my book that he’s still capable of being the force of 2 seasons ago.

[Garrison Savannah]

Couldn’t disagree more NC.

Constitution Hill was rated (quite rightly) on what he ran, rather than what he could have ran.

Now I see an argument, that at Kempton CH may not have been able to run to 177….but no one can tell me he couldn’t have ran far in excess of 163. He didn’t need to try to win that race, and quite rightly horse and jockey gave it up as soon as he’d put the race to bed.

In State Man’s last 9 races he’s ran 164, 167, 167, 166, 166, 166, 167, 169, 169. He’s a lovely horse and a model of consistency, but I just don’t see where the improvement comes from to be able to post 170+.

Lossiemouth I’m not really considering. 1) She’s got way over a stone to find, and 2) she’ll likely run in the mares.

Now I’m not claiming that CH will win the CH in 2025. But there’s never a 70% chance that he doesn’t win in my eyes. The 5/2 was value, a gift. Just had to be taken.

[darlojim]

Lossiemouth I’m not really considering. 1) She’s got way over a stone to find, and 2) she’ll likely run in the mares.

Might be worth having a read around the forum, as to targets for Lossie

[Fouroverthrutwo]

I wouldn’t want Constitution Hill onside at 2-1 or 5-2.

It’s 19 months since he posted a mark of 177 in last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Since then a 167 at Aintree and a 163 at Kempton last Christmas.
We haven’t seen him on the track since and he’ll be 8 in January.
Is he still unbeatable or will he struggle to get anywhere near the levels he showed at his best?
For me the jury is very much out.
State Man has hit 170 twice since Constitution Hill’s 2023 Festival triumph.
And Lossiemouth could quite conceivably still be on the upgrade.
Willie Mullins is the last trainer you want to see as the main rival to Con Hill proving he’s still got it 10 months after he last set foot on a racecourse.
So as shorties go, Teahupoo yes but Constitution Hill a definite no at this stage.
I genuinely hope he returns as good as ever but we can all think of many who are never quite the same after such an absence.
So proof needed in my book that he’s still capable of being the force of 2 seasons ago.

Add to this that he suffered from an undisclosed virus that floored him. Remember 'that' gallop where he literally couldn't keep up with the work horse and had to be pulled up? And then he suffered 'suspected colic' a couple of months later. We haven't seen the horse since December 23. To me 2/1 about a horse with so many question marks does not represent value. It may to some but not me. I remember reading on here how backing him last year yielded much better returns than putting your money in the bank. They forgot to factor in defeat or worse still a no-show.

[nortonscoin200]

Couldn’t disagree more NC.

Constitution Hill was rated (quite rightly) on what he ran, rather than what he could have ran.

Now I see an argument, that at Kempton CH may not have been able to run to 177….but no one can tell me he couldn’t have ran far in excess of 163. He didn’t need to try to win that race, and quite rightly horse and jockey gave it up as soon as he’d put the race to bed.

In State Man’s last 9 races he’s ran 164, 167, 167, 166, 166, 166, 167, 169, 169. He’s a lovely horse and a model of consistency, but I just don’t see where the improvement comes from to be able to post 170+.

Lossiemouth I’m not really considering. 1) She’s got way over a stone to find, and 2) she’ll likely run in the mares.

Now I’m not claiming that CH will win the CH in 2025. But there’s never a 70% chance that he doesn’t win in my eyes. The 5/2 was value, a gift. Just had to be taken.

Fair enough Garrison, but just on a point of clarification I was talking about rprs not official ratings.

Constitution Hill’s latest 3 runs (all last year) earned rprs of 177, 167 and 163.
State Man’s last 3 runs ( all this year) earned rprs of 170, 160 and 170.
Lossiemouth’s 3 latest runs (all this year) earned rprs of 155, 156 and 150.
So I agree she has at least 7lbs plus to find. But she’s only 5 and I get the impression she could find that improvement this season and with the mares allowance could be a big contender. She too had it to prove and I imagine Willie will be guided by her prep races as to which race to target.
But we just have to agree to differ on whether Constitution Hill is a good thing. good luck withe bets. I’m not yet invested.

[Garrison Savannah]

Might be worth having a read around the forum, as to targets for Lossie

I’m sure she’s being aimed at the CH Jim, have read a number of times that’s the word from Closutton and I believe it, but I don’t think she’ll prove better than State Man.

If Willie knows State Man is better, then it wouldn’t surprise me if she’s switched to run in the mares…besides which, if she can’t beat State Man, I’m not concerned about her in relation to CH.

[Zachx02]

I’m sure she’s being aimed at the CH Jim, have read a number of times that’s the word from Closutton and I believe it, but I don’t think she’ll prove better than State Man.

If Willie knows State Man is better, then it wouldn’t surprise me if she’s switched to run in the mares…besides which, if she can’t beat State Man, I’m not concerned about her in relation to CH.

I agree with this, I just can't see her being good enough. With mares allowance she's equal on ratings with IEP. Yes, she can improve but I don't believe she can beat state man or CH

[Lobos]

If any horse is to beat CH this season then it'll be Lossiemouth. IMO she'll prove better than State Man. She should be unbeaten but for an uncharacteristically poor ride from PT. She does it all so easily. Travels and jumps beautifully and quickens so effortlessly. She oozes class and has so much more to come. If there's any chink in the CH armour then she'll expose it. She is hugely exciting.

[charlie]

Fair enough Garrison, but just on a point of clarification I was talking about rprs not official ratings.

Constitution Hill’s latest 3 runs (all last year) earned rprs of 177, 167 and 163.
State Man’s last 3 runs ( all this year) earned rprs of 170, 160 and 170.
Lossiemouth’s 3 latest runs (all this year) earned rprs of 155, 156 and 150.
So I agree she has at least 7lbs plus to find. But she’s only 5 and I get the impression she could find that improvement this season and with the mares allowance could be a big contender. She too had it to prove and I imagine Willie will be guided by her prep races as to which race to target.
But we just have to agree to differ on whether Constitution Hill is a good thing. good luck withe bets. I’m not yet invested.

I'm all for challenging the shorties and trying to find cracks NC, but I think thats a very hard thing to do re Con Hill.

There are two conversations going on here aren't there. The price now is there to be attacked (wasn't at 5/2 mind). Anyone can credibly make the case that 11/8 this far out with all the things that can go wrong is not worth it. I think thats fair and something we all have different views on, but most will see both sides of the coin.

In terms of ability though, I think it's a hard sell. If you're using RPR's (some do some don't) Con Hill has posted the best RPR in the Supreme by a mile. He posted the best RPR in the Champion Hurdle in the last 10 year with complete ease. Lossiemouth is clearly very good, but she's in a different parish to Con Hill IMO based on what we know now.

As a 5yo in the hands of WPM she will no doubt improve, but she will have to significantly. Beating Gala Marceau 2L in the Triumph, or Love Envoi 9L pre festival or TMSG 3L (albeit super easily) at Cheltenham is a world apart from what Con Hill has done at Cheltenham.

He beat Jonbon 22L in basically a canter. He made a mockery of State Man winning 9L with Nico easing him down. It looks like he'd be capable of running into 180+ if really asked and for all Lossiemouth is exciting and progressive, on RPR's she's never run past 155. She gets the mares allowance which is a big plus, but even with that and a stone of improvement she isn't beating Con Hill based on what we know now.

Honeysuckle is the only mare to record better RPR's than Lossiemouth in the mares hurdle and she opted for the easier option vs facing constitution hill because connections knew there was no point taking him on.

If something happens to Con Hill then yes, Lossiemouth will go CH and prob take all the beating, but, if he stays sound and you are WPM, do you forgo an easy winner on day one of the festival or go for second in a CH?

The answer, regardless of how much we want these big clashes and proper rivals to Con Hill, is almost certainly no IMO. Willie wants Cheltenham winners, so does RR. Winning the mares will mean more to them than finishing 2nd in a CH, which no one will remember.

Also, most people are having this conversation under the assumption Lossiemouth will improve at least a stone. She might, but she might not. Con Hill could retain his ability, or even be a little bit worse and still win the CH IMO.

[Odin]

If something happens to Con Hill then yes, Lossiemouth will go CH and prob take all the beating, but, if he stays sound and you are WPM, do you forgo an easy winner on day one of the festival or go for second in a CH?

The answer, regardless of how much we want these big clashes and proper rivals to Con Hill, is almost certainly no IMO. Willie wants Cheltenham winners, so does RR. Winning the mares will mean more to them than finishing 2nd in a CH, which no one will remember.

I don't think I Lossie will beat CH, but I don't necessarily agree with this part.

It feels like getting Lossie to the Champion Hurdle has been a 2 year plan, first mentioned by Willie on 29th April 2023, then repeated January 2024, March 2024 and May 2024 with the specific plan of Mares Hurdle then Champion (or even Stayers Hurdle mentioned initially FWIW). Add to that the certainty with which the owners have described her plans in OJA: "Our great white hope, she will follow a Champion Hurdle campaign this year. We think she's top class", compared to what they say about Gaelic Warrior (as another of their big hopes for this year): "There are very few horses with as much natural ability as him. We haven't made any plans, but it wouldn't surprise me if Willie aims him at the QMCC", and it just feels like they want her to have a go.

I think the only thing that stops her going Champion Hurdle is either her completely bombing out, which is definitely possible, or Willie not thinking one of his others can win the Mares Hurdle. I'm not convinced finishing second to CH will be a factor at all if they think she's better than State Man.

[charlie]

I don't think I Lossie will beat CH, but I don't necessarily agree with this part.

It feels like getting Lossie to the Champion Hurdle has been a 2 year plan, first mentioned by Willie on 29th April 2023, then repeated January 2024, March 2024 and May 2024 with the specific plan of Mares Hurdle then Champion (or even Stayers Hurdle mentioned initially FWIW). Add to that the certainty with which the owners have described her plans in OJA: "Our great white hope, she will follow a Champion Hurdle campaign this year. We think she's top class", compared to what they say about Gaelic Warrior (as another of their big hopes for this year): "There are very few horses with as much natural ability as him. We haven't made any plans, but it wouldn't surprise me if Willie aims him at the QMCC", and it just feels like they want her to have a go.

I think the only thing that stops her going Champion Hurdle is either her completely bombing out, which is definitely possible, or Willie not thinking one of his others can win the Mares Hurdle. I'm not convinced finishing second to CH will be a factor at all if they think she's better than State Man.

I see where you're coming from and it's a case well made, but these are often happy post win quotes where owners and trainers aim high. It does look like it's been the plan for a while though tbf, but Willie almost always opts for the lowest hanging fruit and I would add to that, that he's a creature of habit. What worked last year was campaigning Lossiemouth lightly. Letting her develop and progress slowly with one run before March. If they opt for a CH campaign then I suspect they will have to adopt a different approach. Worth noting thats exactly what they did with Annie Power, so it has been done, but, and its a big but, that was a piss weak CH and there was no CH or State Man. That means Lossiemouth either starts earlier and gets thrown in the deep end early where we learn if she's proper G1 class in open company, or, they campaign her similarly and we dont learn much and are kept guessing. We're doing a lot of talking about Con Hill but State Man is also a big factor here too. Same connections, CH winner (albeit due to Con Hill absence), so there are lots of moving parts that IMO mean those long term plans could easily change for Lossiemouth. I mean, she'd win the mares on rails and could always take in the CH at 7yo when Con Hill is a year older.