2025 Champion Hurdle

[ComplyOrDie]

“He could still be at the same level as he has shown. Does he have to get any better? No, he doesn’t. I could tell you that because Luccia was only beaten three and a half lengths in the Champion Hurdle. With all respect to her, I know where Constitution Hill would have finished if she is the benchmark.

“We know her, I know what she can and can’t do, but it tells me that if those two [State Man and Irish Point] can beat her by three and a half lengths then Constitution Hill would’ve been back in his box having dinner by the time they finished because he’s that far ahead of her. It was bad luck that we couldn't go.”



Of course, the problem is that Luccia categorically isn't the benchmark and horses only have to beat the opposition. State Man just did what he had to do on the day, and that's the way he was ridden as well...

The thing is, Henderson isn't wrong, is he. Constitution Hill has already slaughtered State Man in a Champion Hurdle, and has a line through Luccia, who he knows better than us.

The problem is he should have phrased it better than the way he did. That said, the British are shite, and Constitution Hill is the stand out star and I kinda like the fact it's a bit of fighting talk from him, Nicholls would have probably swerved Cheltenham altogether with him

State Man is a good horse, but he got his arse handed to him in the Champion Hurdle by Constitution Hill and even when winning it last season, it was hardly with ease. Irish Point made him battle all the way to the line. On ratings alone it wasn't even close to a decent running of the Champion Hurdle, with only 1 horse in the 160's making the line up. State Man should have been dotting up, IMO.

I'll put my tin hat on and say State Man has taken advantage of a woeful division in Ireland. The only horse of note he's beat is Honeysuckle and she was 9 when he did he beat her, so maybe a little harsh on her. For all that, he's consistent and keeps running for connections, of which I tip my proverbial hat to.

[Magpie]

Whilst State Man was never put in the race against CH, I think most would agree that a 90% fit CH would win, so can’t say I mind Henderson’s comments as it factual and personally I like some fighting talk, and if people start talking about the race, it can only be good for racing IMO.

[Odin]

The thing is, Henderson isn't wrong, is he. Constitution Hill has already slaughtered State Man in a Champion Hurdle, and has a line through Luccia, who he knows better than us.

The problem is he should have phrased it better than the way he did. That said, the British are shite, and Constitution Hill is the stand out star and I kinda like the fact it's a bit of fighting talk from him, Nicholls would have probably swerved Cheltenham altogether with him

State Man is a good horse, but he got his arse handed to him in the Champion Hurdle by Constitution Hill and even when winning it last season, it was hardly with ease. Irish Point made him battle all the way to the line. On ratings alone it wasn't even close to a decent running of the Champion Hurdle, with only 1 horse in the 160's making the line up. State Man should have been dotting up, IMO.

I'll put my tin hat on and say State Man has taken advantage of a woeful division in Ireland. The only horse of note he's beat is Honeysuckle and she was 9 when he did he beat her, so maybe a little harsh on her. For all that, he's consistent and keeps running for connections, of which I tip my proverbial hat to.

I strongly agree that Constitution will beat State Man, but I'd also strongly contest some of your other points.

SM probably has taken advantage of a weak Irish division, but I'd argue the UK division is even weaker (which you allude to tbf). SM also only seems to do what is required of him, so it's harder to know how good he actually is. Take the Champion Hurdle - watch it back, there's no way he was battling all the way to the line there having been on the bridle until after the last, he was just doing what was necessary and/or idling, and that's the crux of my point about the form against Luccia meaning nothing. It doesn't change the fact that we both believe Constitution will beat him, but I think the nuance is important. Particularly if Constitution isn't the horse he was by even half a stone, it could matter. Particularly if SM was off colour last time they met, which Mullins and Townend both believe. For all that though, I've no intention of backing SM in case anyone thinks I'm setting up a fan club

The other thing about the fighting talk is fine, but Henderson has always been known for being bullish without necessarily having the actions to back it up in recent years (rightly or wrongly). He didn't lose the Fighting Fifth like he's said in another article, he chose not to run in it. He can also say what he wants about probably winning the Champion Chase but the fact is he didn't run. When he stops ducking and diving before Cheltenham, that's when I'll enjoy the fighting talk, win or lose.

[Quevega]

I strongly agree that Constitution will beat State Man, but I'd also strongly contest some of your other points.

SM probably has taken advantage of a weak Irish division, but I'd argue the UK division is even weaker (which you allude to tbf). SM also only seems to do what is required of him, so it's harder to know how good he actually is. Take the Champion Hurdle - watch it back, there's no way he was battling all the way to the line there having been on the bridle until after the last, he was just doing what was necessary and/or idling, and that's the crux of my point about the form against Luccia meaning nothing. It doesn't change the fact that we both believe Constitution will beat him, but I think the nuance is important. Particularly if Constitution isn't the horse he was by even half a stone, it could matter. Particularly if SM was off colour last time they met, which Mullins and Townend both believe. For all that though, I've no intention of backing SM in case anyone thinks I'm setting up a fan club

The other thing about the fighting talk is fine, but Henderson has always been known for being bullish without necessarily having the actions to back it up in recent years (rightly or wrongly). He didn't lose the Fighting Fifth like he's said in another article, he chose not to run in it. He can also say what he wants about probably winning the Champion Chase but the fact is he didn't run. When he stops ducking and diving before Cheltenham, that's when I'll enjoy the fighting talk, win or lose.

I think you've summed it up perfectly why his comments seem a little hollow.
And I think it's 10 grade 1's to 7 now and almost double the prize money won. £1.3 v £700k I reckon.

There's no doubt who's the better horse.
And no doubt who's the better trainer either.

Lets hope he runs his horses more this year and has a clear run.

[Quevega]

Was there anything of genuine interest Q or was it just the usual vagaries?

Think everyone has added the extra context mate.
I think he talked up a few of his younger horses that JP has given him and Minella etc. But didn't pay much attention.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/new-faces-and-highly-exciting-talent-set-to-feature-among-nicky-hendersons-novice-hurdle-line-up-adGDP8X8dooo/

[Quevega]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/last-season-was-very-unlucky-in-many-ways-lots-of-people-thought-it-was-a-disaster-but-it-wasnt-a44pL0I9Iby1/

Then he also had a moan

[HesTheOne]

Him trying to flog off 10 unraced yokes in the young horse preview says it all haha

I'm firmly in the camp CH is a busted flush and has been since the start of last year. Happy to be proven wrong (if he ever runs) but for now that's the position I'm taking.

From the printer being fired up again, the wind op, the "very hopeful" comments & Sir Gino staying back - all help compound the issues that have been there some time

[Zachx02]

I think you've summed it up perfectly why his comments seem a little hollow.
And I think it's 10 grade 1's to 7 now and almost double the prize money won. £1.3 v £700k I reckon.

There's no doubt who's the better horse.
And no doubt who's the better trainer either.

Lets hope he runs his horses more this year and has a clear run.

Henderson and running his horses more, don't joke with that one

[charlie]

I strongly agree that Constitution will beat State Man, but I'd also strongly contest some of your other points.

SM probably has taken advantage of a weak Irish division, but I'd argue the UK division is even weaker (which you allude to tbf). SM also only seems to do what is required of him, so it's harder to know how good he actually is. Take the Champion Hurdle - watch it back, there's no way he was battling all the way to the line there having been on the bridle until after the last, he was just doing what was necessary and/or idling, and that's the crux of my point about the form against Luccia meaning nothing. It doesn't change the fact that we both believe Constitution will beat him, but I think the nuance is important. Particularly if Constitution isn't the horse he was by even half a stone, it could matter. Particularly if SM was off colour last time they met, which Mullins and Townend both believe. For all that though, I've no intention of backing SM in case anyone thinks I'm setting up a fan club

The other thing about the fighting talk is fine, but Henderson has always been known for being bullish without necessarily having the actions to back it up in recent years (rightly or wrongly). He didn't lose the Fighting Fifth like he's said in another article, he chose not to run in it. He can also say what he wants about probably winning the Champion Chase but the fact is he didn't run. When he stops ducking and diving before Cheltenham, that's when I'll enjoy the fighting talk, win or lose.

This is a really good post!

[Carnage at Taunton]

He did say IF Luccia is the benchmark, I suspect though that he doesn’t actually think that.
As far as next March, it’s really all about whether to take the current price available for Con Hill.
A run that suggests he’s around the same level then he goes odds on I imagine.
Like many others i have him in a few multiples and really hope he’s as good or even better in time.
For me the odds are too short for any horse to back in single bets this far out, but I can understand people going in at current prices, they could be sitting very pretty come March.
Fascinating stuff however one looks at it imo.

[Ice]

He did say IF Luccia is the benchmark, I suspect though that he doesn’t actually think that.
As far as next March, it’s really all about whether to take the current price available for Con Hill.
A run that suggests he’s around the same level then he goes odds on I imagine.
Like many others i have him in a few multiples and really hope he’s as good or even better in time.
For me the odds are too short for any horse to back in single bets this far out, but I can understand people going in at current prices, they could be sitting very pretty come March.
Fascinating stuff however one looks at it imo.

For me the 5/2 could look massive after his first run and i would be so pissed off with myself if i hadn't taken it, i accept it's a risk and I'm not overly keen on backing at such odds this far out but i just had to do it ! I have used quite a few of the few free bets i still get on him, not just cash so that will soften the blow a little if he's not the same horse or doesn't make the gig !

[ComplyOrDie]

Just been thinking about Lossiemouth and I wonder if Ricci will be keen for Lossiemouth to come over for the Christmas Hurdle @ Kempton on boxing day.

I don't think he's made it any secret that he likes attending the meeting, and they brought Faugheen over twice for the race. They could have her primed for the day and hope Constitution Hill either doesn't turn up or isn't fully wound up, and could take advantage of this. It would give them an idea of where they stand (should Con Hill turn up) and would keep her apart from stablemates, Mystical Power & State Man too.

[HoldenTheReins]

Just been thinking about Lossiemouth and I wonder if Ricci will be keen for Lossiemouth to come over for the Christmas Hurdle @ Kempton on boxing day.

I don't think he's made it any secret that he likes attending the meeting, and they brought Faugheen over twice for the race. They could have her primed for the day and hope Constitution Hill either doesn't turn up or isn't fully wound up, and could take advantage of this. It would give them an idea of where they stand (should Con Hill turn up) and would keep her apart from stablemates, Mystical Power & State Man too.

Let's also not forget Ricci also has a percentage in Mystical Power. He could still technically win the CH with him just not in his own silks.

[Killiney]

Seemingly. ‘ big bet ‘ placed with Ladbrokes has led to CH shortening to 7/4 it would seem all bookies have followed suit with that price which now is best price.

[Ice]

Seemingly. ‘ big bet ‘ placed with Ladbrokes has led to CH shortening to 7/4 it would seem all bookies have followed suit with that price which now is best price.

Gotta love the bookies, one big bet placed with Ladbrokes and all bookies shorten their prices, makes me smile that does !