2025 Champion Hurdle

[Durham Edition]

I think they have already decided that SG stays hurdling, and will be going CHurdle.
Just cannot see them starting a chase career halfway through the season with a 4/5 year old.
And to be fair, he’s earned the right to go for the CH, especially this one.
The current champ has been beaten and the best hurdler is still out.
The race as it stands is now much more open.

I agree with this, I cannot see them starting down the chasing route now. Who knows we may never SG him chasing if he goes and wins the CH. As for the owners having multiple runners from what most people are saying the Donnellys leave this up to the trainer so I think Henderson will have both CH and SG running if CH proves to be fit.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Well said Q. Just increase the Mares rating or reduce the Geldings rating. Either way will do. Whatever way you look at it, the 7lbs for Mares as good as Lossiemouth or BDA is not fair at all and puts them at a serious advantage and is hard to overcome. I'm not complaining though !!

Are you Rich Ricci?

[Carnage at Taunton]

I agree with this, I cannot see them starting down the chasing route now. Who knows we may never SG him chasing if he goes and wins the CH. As for the owners having multiple runners from what most people are saying the Donnellys leave this up to the trainer so I think Henderson will have both CH and SG running if CH proves to be fit.

Yep absolutely.
And if CH does prove to be fit he still has to show the necessary form to convince them.
Sir Gino can go chasing at 5 next season. That would be more typical of the trainer.
If he win the CH I guess it could change, but you would not mind that as an owner!!

[Runragged]

I must be missing something with Anzadam, other than the price and a potential “why run three when you have two”

he’s won a race for 4 year olds, yeah it was a good performance 1st time out, but still…

if the international is his next target then, he’ll only jump twice outside of France here before the CH.

as for Sir Gino? I just hope they make a decision sooner rather than later re: CH or Arkle or skip, but we all know they’ll leave it late.

little tried of this atm, you have trainers that are too dominate (Willie can send 3-4 here), and similar with some owners

aware this is the current state of play, but as a race goer, how can anyone get excited about a race when we all know half of them won’t turn up and opt for easier opportunities to spread trainer/owners chances of winning. Don’t blame them, but still….

Sir Gino should be on the arkle, but likley to mess him up

Lossiemouth should be in this race, simple as that
BDA just beat the current CH champ, but likely to be in the mares

**yeah.. just one of those mornings lol. Rant over :-)

Agree with you regarding Anzadam. Great performance but it was a 4yo grade 3 on only his 3rd start and a massive improvement on anything he had done before after over a years absence (Could be a bounce candidate). The International hurdle is a grade 2 so could be turning up in a Champion Hurdle having not even run in a grade 1 race (Unless went Irish Champion Hurdle a week later...) let alone winning one. Willie has shown he can be patient so doubt they will give him too hard a season, just try and get through it injury free and gain experience. Looking through the calendar then you have the Red Mills Hurdle as a possible as another grade 3. Could always still go grade 1 at Punchestown if all goes smoothly.

[Rooster Booster]

All those that still think Sir Gino will line up in the Arkle….i firmly believe the trainer will not run a 5 year old in the Arkle having had only a maximum of two previous chase outings and I think it highly unlikely he will get three in before the festival. It is so far out of his usual MO that he simply will not do this imo. He is far too protective of a horses long term career. IF he does decide to go chasing this season my view is it will not be with the Arkle in mind but next years champion chase. He values championship races a good deal more than novice races (particularly novice chases). We are fixated on novice races on here because we are Cheltenham fanatics. Many trainers do not share our fixation and we get somewhat triggered as a consequence.

If he believes Sir Gino is the real deal there are two races he will be fixated on , the 2024 champion hurdle or the 2025 champion chase and he will work backwards from these races and maximise his chance of success in these. It is entirely possible he may already think conceding weight to the mare for him as a 5yo will be a next to impossible task. This could easily result in a shift back to fences but the Arkle will not be significant in this thinking imo.

[BookieBasher]

All those that still think Sir Gino will line up in the Arkle….i firmly believe the trainer will not run a 5 year old in the Arkle having had only a maximum of two previous chase outings and I think it highly unlikely he will get three in before the festival. It is so far out of his usual MO that he simply will not do this imo. He is far too protective of a horses long term career. IF he does decide to go chasing this season my view is it will not be with the Arkle in mind but next years champion chase. He values championship races a good deal more than novice races (particularly novice chases). We are fixated on novice races on here because we are Cheltenham fanatics. Many trainers do not share our fixation and we get somewhat triggered as a consequence.

If he believes Sir Gino is the real deal there are two races he will be fixated on , the 2024 champion hurdle or the 2025 champion chase and he will work backwards from these races and maximise his chance of success in these. It is entirely possible he may already think conceding weight to the mare for him as a 5yo will be a next to impossible task. This could easily result in a shift back to fences but the Arkle will not be significant in this thinking imo.

Hope Nicky’s not fixating to strongly on the 2024 Champion Hurdle

[DeeBee]

I noticed Constitution Hill was a sea of blue on oddschecker last night but I couldn’t work out why. Did I miss something relating to him being said? Or is just people thinking Sir Gino goes a Arkle after the Anzadam news and 2+2 is 5

[Carnage at Taunton]

All those that still think Sir Gino will line up in the Arkle….i firmly believe the trainer will not run a 5 year old in the Arkle having had only a maximum of two previous chase outings and I think it highly unlikely he will get three in before the festival. It is so far out of his usual MO that he simply will not do this imo. He is far too protective of a horses long term career. IF he does decide to go chasing this season my view is it will not be with the Arkle in mind but next years champion chase. He values championship races a good deal more than novice races (particularly novice chases). We are fixated on novice races on here because we are Cheltenham fanatics. Many trainers do not share our fixation and we get somewhat triggered as a consequence.

If he believes Sir Gino is the real deal there are two races he will be fixated on , the 2024 champion hurdle or the 2025 champion chase and he will work backwards from these races and maximise his chance of success in these. It is entirely possible he may already think conceding weight to the mare for him as a 5yo will be a next to impossible task. This could easily result in a shift back to fences but the Arkle will not be significant in this thinking imo.

So basically, if he thinks SG can’t cope with Lossiemouth, then he can give SG some experience this season over fences without going too deep with him?
Thus starting off the following season with that experience to campaign towards the CChase.
Well the way they are talking it does seem that he’s really schooled well, so I can see that making sense.
In that scenario also, a decision don’t need to be made for a while, so he can continue with hurdling, see how things are looking?

[Carnage at Taunton]

I noticed Constitution Hill was a sea of blue on oddschecker last night but I couldn’t work out why. Did I miss something relating to him being said? Or is just people thinking Sir Gino goes a Arkle after the Anzadam news and 2+2 is 5

Don’t think Anzadam has anything to do with it personally.
But you never know .
Not been any news re Con Hill that I’ve been aware of.
The bookies would probably know before us though!!

[Quevega]

All those that still think Sir Gino will line up in the Arkle….i firmly believe the trainer will not run a 5 year old in the Arkle having had only a maximum of two previous chase outings and I think it highly unlikely he will get three in before the festival. It is so far out of his usual MO that he simply will not do this imo. He is far too protective of a horses long term career. IF he does decide to go chasing this season my view is it will not be with the Arkle in mind but next years champion chase. He values championship races a good deal more than novice races (particularly novice chases). We are fixated on novice races on here because we are Cheltenham fanatics. Many trainers do not share our fixation and we get somewhat triggered as a consequence.

If he believes Sir Gino is the real deal there are two races he will be fixated on , the 2024 champion hurdle or the 2025 champion chase and he will work backwards from these races and maximise his chance of success in these. It is entirely possible he may already think conceding weight to the mare for him as a 5yo will be a next to impossible task. This could easily result in a shift back to fences but the Arkle will not be significant in this thinking imo.

I agree, and have said similar the other week.
The only nagging doubt is the money for him for the arkle, and the way he's talked about him.
added to the constitution hill money also.
Might be peanuts but I really thought he'd drift for the arkle after winning a grade 1 over hurdles in that manner, but that has not happened.
I find it hard to believe that this is just people doubling up on their previous conviction.
But it could be as simple as deebee has just said.

They may also think that he beat fucking handicappers in a grade one and a big under performer.
Pretty sure Nico would be happy to go chasing so Henderson will have him in his ear and if owner also likes the idea then it may still happen.

Owners in a tricky spot because if Con Hill don't make it to the champion hurdle then Nicky and Nico will no doubt want to go for it with him. even if hes had a couple of novice chases.

[Rooster Booster]

So basically, if he thinks SG can’t cope with Lossiemouth, then he can give SG some experience this season over fences without going too deep with him?
Thus starting off the following season with that experience to campaign towards the CChase.
Well the way they are talking it does seem that he’s really schooled well, so I can see that making sense.
In that scenario also, a decision don’t need to be made for a while, so he can continue with hurdling, see how things are looking?

Kind of. I think it’s less about not going too deep as I think he has huge faith in the horse. I think it’s more about mapping out his path to the 2025 Champion Chase if he does choose to go chasing and as a consequence work back from that in a way that maximises his chance of success in that race. I do not think he will feel that having three chases between now and the Arkle. or running in the Arkle after just two chases are the best way to maximise success for next years Champion Chase.

Put it another way. The fighting faith was opportunistic. It was not the original plan. Sacrificing the Arkle for the Fighting Faith would have felt like a no brainer. As soon as he ran in the fighting faith he was essentially telling the world he is not fussed about the Arkle. It was not telling us he is not fussed about the champion chase.

[ComplyOrDie]

RPR:

Lossiemouth 151.

The same rating as she got first time out last season.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I agree, and have said similar the other week.
The only nagging doubt is the money for him for the arkle, and the way he's talked about him.
added to the constitution hill money also.
Might be peanuts but I really thought he'd drift for the arkle after winning a grade 1 over hurdles in that manner, but that has not happened.
I find it hard to believe that this is just people doubling up on their previous conviction.
But it could be as simple as deebee has just said.

They may also think that he beat fucking handicappers in a grade one and a big under performer.
Pretty sure Nico would be happy to go chasing so Henderson will have him in his ear and if owner also likes the idea then it may still happen.

Owners in a tricky spot because if Con Hill don't make it to the champion hurdle then Nicky and Nico will no doubt want to go for it with him. even if hes had a couple of novice chases.

I think the owners will be fine with either to be honest
State Man is vulnerable with a defeat this season, so SG gives them another shot at another CHurdle.
He starts chasing he becomes potentially a shot at the C Chase the following year.
I also think the Arkle is gone now for SG.

[Brooksie]

All those that still think Sir Gino will line up in the Arkle….i firmly believe the trainer will not run a 5 year old in the Arkle having had only a maximum of two previous chase outings and I think it highly unlikely he will get three in before the festival. It is so far out of his usual MO that he simply will not do this imo. He is far too protective of a horses long term career. IF he does decide to go chasing this season my view is it will not be with the Arkle in mind but next years champion chase. He values championship races a good deal more than novice races (particularly novice chases). We are fixated on novice races on here because we are Cheltenham fanatics. Many trainers do not share our fixation and we get somewhat triggered as a consequence.

If he believes Sir Gino is the real deal there are two races he will be fixated on , the 2024 champion hurdle or the 2025 champion chase and he will work backwards from these races and maximise his chance of success in these. It is entirely possible he may already think conceding weight to the mare for him as a 5yo will be a next to impossible task. This could easily result in a shift back to fences but the Arkle will not be significant in this thinking imo.

He could take two runs over fences still, Hendo openly telling us he's not seen anything jump a fence better, by the sounds of it they've done a lot of schooling already. Usually their first run fencing is a non event ran at a canter basically a schooling session, he probably gained more experience in a real race at Newcastle. The Arkle would be very much on his mind, you only get one chance at 2 miles over them fences in novice company. If they're already leaning that way then I'd expect he'll be entered at Kempton on the 27th and then could be seen taking in the game spirit at Newbury. A route taken by Sprintre Sacre and Altior on their way to the Arkle. Tried and tested.

Everything still hinging on Con Hill though really.

[Lobos]

Re the CH, the Donnelly's may make a decision after SG's and Anzadam's next race to see which one they want to run in it as back up to State Man. Both are in a very similar position ATM and are hard to split.