2025 Champion Hurdle

[Quevega]

The first point is a good one. We don't really have any wellbeing question marks and it looked like not running him was precautionary. Classic Nicky.

I think it's a stretch putting her on a par with State Man though. Barring Con Hill, State Man is just a Grade 1 machine capable of running to an RPR of 170. I would agree that Lossiemouth's performances have been under rated due to how easy she wins, but, IMO there is a world apart from being a good novice and consistently beating the same fillies 2-3L, to then rising to reach the heights State Man has (which I think have been generally under appreciated)

Not being tested prior to March is a big issue for most horses but thats not a negative that can be levelled at Con Hill. He raced twice before the Supreme and twice before the CH, winning all those races by an average margin of 14L and barely coming out of second gear, so he has proven he doesn't need a test prior to March.

Would be entirely fair to counter and say that doesnt apply to Lossiemouth. If Willie gives her an easy season then not being tested properly is far more likely to be an issue if she were to go CH.

Yeah the problems more from a betting perspective I suppose.
Lossiemouth wasn't a novice last year btw, and easily beat a decent field in the Mares as a 5 yr old after one prep race.
She has all the hallmarks of another very classy mare along the lines of Quevega, Annie P and Honeysuckle.

Problem for her is that Constitution Hill probably has more to give also.
She's better than State Man though IMO.
Just needs to prove it.

[charlie]

Yeah the problems more from a betting perspective I suppose.
Lossiemouth wasn't a novice last year btw, and easily beat a decent field in the Mares as a 5 yr old after one prep race.
She has all the hallmarks of another very classy mare along the lines of Quevega, Annie P and Honeysuckle.

Problem for her is that Constitution Hill probably has more to give also.
She's better than State Man though IMO.
Just needs to prove it.

Lol you know I know she wasn't a novice last season!! (although thats how it reads) - 'there is a world apart from being a good novice then going on to consistently beating the same fillies 2-3L'. Point stands though. She might indeed be better than State Man but on what they've achieved the lad has it, but I agree, she could be very special indeed and one of Willies very best mares. She could also just be a really good mare thats about at the wrong time. Honeysuckle and Annie Power wouldn't have beaten CH

[Odin]

Aww of course she could become fav agree on that but her price now is based on what Lossiemouth did last year imo.

Aye the juvenile form can be hard to weigh up, I suppose I’m more going on connections as well as what we’ve seen. I don’t get the feeling from WPM that Kargese is at the same level as Lossiemouth was, obviously that’s mostly pure speculation on my part but I don’t think he will or has ever mentioned her being a future champion hurdle horse which I’m hoping Lossiemouth proves herself to have a crack at that and he has alluded to several times. You could be right and the juveniles were just a cut above Lossiemouths year but I still wouldn’t have Kargese at her level.

Shes probably on a par with Gala Marceau which is no shame as she was a Grade 1 winning juvenile as well.

For what it’s worth, I do like Kargese haha!

Haha - I love an edit like that after you've written it all

I think Gala Marceau is a very fair comparison at the minimum (not least due to running style and owners). Just in case you hadn't seen it though, I'd argue Willie does have quite a lot of love for Kargese (with an obvious caveat):

"She has some engine! She pulled so hard at Aintree, and we’re going to have to change a few things with her. If we can get her to settle and race, then she is a real machine, I’d say."
https://www.racingtv.com/news/willie...erstars-update

Will be fun watching it all play out over the season though

[Lobos]

Does a keen Kargese get home in the mares? Do you think she’s as good as Lossiemouth as a juvenile?

If either of those are no then surely 7/1 is not a great price about a juvenile going into open company. Lossiemouth is much better imo, maybe WPM has found the trick into them going into open company but I’d be surprised if they all hit the heights Lossiemouth was able to.

a) definitely a doubt which is why I hesitate backing her

b) definitely not

[Craigy14]

Haha - I love an edit like that after you've written it all

I think Gala Marceau is a very fair comparison at the minimum (not least due to running style and owners). Just in case you hadn't seen it though, I'd argue Willie does have quite a lot of love for Kargese (with an obvious caveat):

"She has some engine! She pulled so hard at Aintree, and we’re going to have to change a few things with her. If we can get her to settle and race, then she is a real machine, I’d say."
https://www.racingtv.com/news/willie...erstars-update

Will be fun watching it all play out over the season though

Haha had to mention it mate, sounds like I’m bashing her, she was my main Triumph bet other than Sir Gino and she nearly did it. I think it’s bookies taking advantage of lazy comparisons is all imo.

Let’s be honest if Lossiemouth was taken out the race how silly would Kargese price be then!

I suppose we’ll have to wait to see how the form stacks and also how they all do when going into open company over hurdles or novice chasing. I would just be surprised if we have another juvenile come out and be as good and exciting as Lossiemouth, the season after her. Sort of goes back to my initial point of bookies being very lazy!

[Runragged]

I'm loving how State Man is continually underestimated. I think he is a bet to nothing each way at 5/1 albeit factoring in that he has to get there. However, he has proven time and time again that he is a reliable type when it comes to staying sound and for doing what's required. Two defeats in 14 starts for Mullins, with one being yard debut when falling when every chance and the other in the Champion Hurdle when connections believe he was below par behind Constitution Hill. He is consistently good at what he does and that is win races! Have we really seen what State Man is really capable of as I'm not sure, he just does what it takes to win races and nothing more.

Constitution Hill has run just 8 times in almost 3 years and pulled twice on account of the ground with his one run last year producing his lowest RPR since novice days. Lossiemouth has an RPR peak of just 156 at the moment and though is surely capable of better than that, we never saw it last year. There is a lot of guesswork and could she be the type who was very good as a juvenile and doesn't improve a great deal on that? At least we should find out this year... Either way, she could still end up in the Mares Hurdle where she would be a strong favourite.

Where is State Man going though? Well, the only option is the Champion Hurdle as defending champion. Is there three horses/mares capable of running better than State Man in the race? No is the simple answer to me. He is the current title holder and the one they have to beat. If you want to win the Champion Hurdle you will have to beat State Man as he won't just let you have it. I think Lossiemouth would have to do something incredible for Townsend to pick her over State Man with the knowledge that State Man is the 'Now' horse.

Unsurprising that all the talk about Lossiemouth has been Champion Hurdle, there would be a distinct lack of ambition from both trainer and owner if they turn around and say "we've got a great prospect for the Mares hurdle for the next few years." It's also playing mind games with the connections of Constitution Hill. Just look at the comments after Impaire Et Passe won the Ballymore a couple of seasons ago. They thought he was good enough to beat Constitution Hill after the race.

The 5/1 is available with a couple of companies, though with William Hill proving renown for poor ante post prices then not sure how long they will stay joint best price. May get a few more weeks out of it and with an expected positive report for Lossiemouth in the Stable Tours then that should aid the price holding.

[opatcho]

Really like Stateman, proper hardened horse

but this is his 4 season, and I would expect him to be a little exposed now. I do think he’ll be beaten, but if I didn’t have con hill back, I’d be backing this lad at the price

[charlie]

Runragged I agree with a lot of what you have said, but 1pt EW @ 5/1 would most likely mean you get your money back if Con Hill lines up, so staking 2pts now to get your money back is something that wont appeal to most punters. Also, State Man has to make it too. I love State Man, I think he's an under appreciated talent and if the race were tomorrow you'd bet your house on him finishing top 3, but with Con Hill there and potential improver Lossiemouth also in the mix (she's not in his bracket yet), you are betting now for most likely place money which is just so risky. That being said, he looks superb price at 5/1 for a day one place acca at that price.

[BigL]

Could mystical power improve enough to be competitive in this ?

[Spectre]

Could mystical power improve enough to be competitive in this ?

I think he'll line up as the understudy to State Man, and he'll place in a not very deep renewal. I also think that Mullins might travel him over the the UK to take Constitution Hill, so Henderson can't cruise through the season with him. If he does, the Fighting Fifth all of sudden become an interesting race rather than a one horse show.

[BigL]

I think he'll line up as the understudy to State Man, and he'll place in a not very deep renewal. I also think that Mullins might travel him over the the UK to take Constitution Hill, so Henderson can't cruise through the season with him. If he does, the Fighting Fifth all of sudden become an interesting race rather than a one horse show.

You don't think lossie turns up ?

[Spectre]

See my response in your Lossie thread

[Runragged]

Runragged I agree with a lot of what you have said, but 1pt EW @ 5/1 would most likely mean you get your money back if Con Hill lines up, so staking 2pts now to get your money back is something that wont appeal to most punters. Also, State Man has to make it too. I love State Man, I think he's an under appreciated talent and if the race were tomorrow you'd bet your house on him finishing top 3, but with Con Hill there and potential improver Lossiemouth also in the mix (she's not in his bracket yet), you are betting now for most likely place money which is just so risky. That being said, he looks superb price at 5/1 for a day one place acca at that price.

At this stage of the season we are predicting what will be happening. My prediction is that State Man will most likely line up and having never fully been tested may be capable of a little better than what he has done. I think there is a doubt as to whether Con Hill will turn up and also a doubt as to whether he retains all the ability and potential that he possessed two years ago. Assuming Con Hill coasts through the season with a couple of runs and State Man does his usual mopping up of Morgiana, Matheson & Irish Champion then what price will they be? Even if we say Con Hill is 1/3 then the betting suggests 1 in every 3 times he won't win. If we look at their best RPR's (Without factoring any potential improvement both may be capable of) then Con Hill needs to perform within 7lb of his best.

Now, each to their own, it's not my style as a fairly small stakes punter then the reward isn't really there. However, like you suggested I have backed it in a couple of e/w multis where the place potential could help accumulate the place return if all were to make their respective races.

As a racing fan however I hope all the horses get there fit and well and we get a cracker of a race with no excuses!

[Quevega]

At this stage of the season we are predicting what will be happening. My prediction is that State Man will most likely line up and having never fully been tested may be capable of a little better than what he has done. I think there is a doubt as to whether Con Hill will turn up and also a doubt as to whether he retains all the ability and potential that he possessed two years ago. Assuming Con Hill coasts through the season with a couple of runs and State Man does his usual mopping up of Morgiana, Matheson & Irish Champion then what price will they be? Even if we say Con Hill is 1/3 then the betting suggests 1 in every 3 times he won't win. If we look at their best RPR's (Without factoring any potential improvement both may be capable of) then Con Hill needs to perform within 7lb of his best.

Now, each to their own, it's not my style as a fairly small stakes punter then the reward isn't really there. However, like you suggested I have backed it in a couple of e/w multis where the place potential could help accumulate the place return if all were to make their respective races.

As a racing fan however I hope all the horses get there fit and well and we get a cracker of a race with no excuses!

What makes you think State Man has never been fully tested ?
I have him as a very good, consistent and reliable horse that has shown his form and is unlikely to improve (much) further.

[charlie]

At this stage of the season we are predicting what will be happening. My prediction is that State Man will most likely line up and having never fully been tested may be capable of a little better than what he has done. I think there is a doubt as to whether Con Hill will turn up and also a doubt as to whether he retains all the ability and potential that he possessed two years ago. Assuming Con Hill coasts through the season with a couple of runs and State Man does his usual mopping up of Morgiana, Matheson & Irish Champion then what price will they be? Even if we say Con Hill is 1/3 then the betting suggests 1 in every 3 times he won't win. If we look at their best RPR's (Without factoring any potential improvement both may be capable of) then Con Hill needs to perform within 7lb of his best.

Now, each to their own, it's not my style as a fairly small stakes punter then the reward isn't really there. However, like you suggested I have backed it in a couple of e/w multis where the place potential could help accumulate the place return if all were to make their respective races.

As a racing fan however I hope all the horses get there fit and well and we get a cracker of a race with no excuses!

I could have done without the first sentence because thats obvious, but other than that it's a great reply GLGL