2025 Champion Hurdle

[Wayward Lad]

I've taken the 50/1 for kargese in the champion hurdle with paddy, think she's overpriced.

There is a world where sir gino hacks up on Saturday and goes favourite for the champion hurdle, in which case I couldnt see the 50s lasting on kargese, having been beaten less than 4l by him at Aintree when the two pulled well clear.

They've voiced concerns about her settling over the mares hurdle trip, so if sir gino does look very impressive and gives her form a boost then you'd think they might fancy a crack at the big one.

There's bigger prices available on the exchange for her but with no cashout, ad i wouldnt be that interested in her if mystical power thumps sir gino.

Left field but interesting……..Maybe going at G1 open race pace might help her to settle better ?

[riccirich]

Left field but interesting……..Maybe going at G1 open race pace might help her to settle better ?

You'd imagine it could definitely help her. She was very keen at Aintree too and still only went down by 3.75l. If she could settle held up off a strong pace in a champion hurdle then she might have a chance of narrowing that gap between them. If they're actually good enough to line up in the first place obviously which we should find out Saturday.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Am I wrong to be a tad concerned re the going at Newcastle tomorrow?
Both Sir Gino and Mystical power may not want good ground, WM pulled a lot of his at Thurles and NH we know he can pull if he’s concerned.
Hopefully they have a good watering system as can’t see any rain forecast.
Feel free to dispel my concern!!

[Eggs]

Am I wrong to be a tad concerned re the going at Newcastle tomorrow?
Both Sir Gino and Mystical power may not want good ground, WM pulled a lot of his at Thurles and NH we know he can pull if he’s concerned.
Hopefully they have a good watering system as can’t see any rain forecast.
Feel free to dispel my concern!!

….from Mullins ATR stable tour;

“He runs in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle this weekend. I read that there are watering there. Nicky must have rang them before he ate his dinner! We wouldn’t want them putting down water for Mystical Power anyway. He’s fit and well and we’re delighted with the way the race has cut up the way it has. It’ll be a very informative race for everyone. To be honest, we had seriously thought about going novice chasing with him. We’ve schooled him a few times over fences and he’s a hell of a good jumper of them. So, if he doesn’t come up to the mark over hurdles this season, that will be an option for him next season. He might well turn out to be the best Galileo over fences!“

[Carnage at Taunton]

….from Mullins ATR stable tour;

“He runs in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle this weekend. I read that there are watering there. Nicky must have rang them before he ate his dinner! We wouldn’t want them putting down water for Mystical Power anyway. He’s fit and well and we’re delighted with the way the race has cut up the way it has. It’ll be a very informative race for everyone. To be honest, we had seriously thought about going novice chasing with him. We’ve schooled him a few times over fences and he’s a hell of a good jumper of them. So, if he doesn’t come up to the mark over hurdles this season, that will be an option for him next season. He might well turn out to be the best Galileo over fences!“

Thanks Eggs
Looking at MP’s form I’m a bit surprised.
Hes only ran once on good, in a bumper.
His best form is on soft.
Glad there’s watering going on, too many non runners happening for my liking.

[Runragged]

I would be in the Teahupoo camp. Unbeaten in 9 starts after a break of 52 days or more. Last two years has recorded his highest RPR on his first run of the season (Did match it 2 seasons ago in the Galmoy). Top 5 runs according to RPR all come after a 52 day gap also. Lossiemouth meanwhile I think will be building more through the season. This is her first time taking on a genuine grade 1 open performer and may benefit from the experience.

[Quevega]

I would be in the Teahupoo camp. Unbeaten in 9 starts after a break of 52 days or more. Last two years has recorded his highest RPR on his first run of the season (Did match it 2 seasons ago in the Galmoy). Top 5 runs according to RPR all come after a 52 day gap also. Lossiemouth meanwhile I think will be building more through the season. This is her first time taking on a genuine grade 1 open performer and may benefit from the experience.

52 days ??
Love a stat me, especially one based around 52 day breaks (or more).

[Runragged]

52 days ??
Love a stat me, especially one based around 52 day breaks (or more).

Was being lazy as that was the lowest stated by the RP. Maybe better to do his defeats? They have come after 37, 24, 45, 49 & 42 days.

[Quevega]

Was being lazy as that was the lowest stated by the RP. Maybe better to do his defeats? They have come after 37, 24, 45, 49 & 42 days.

Only having a laugh mate.
He's obviously got better form when given an above average break between races. (looking at it from as basic a view point)
Lossie will smash him though
fingers crossed

[opatcho]

I worry about the ground with teahupoo
best RPR on ground that is yielding or better is 159, 10lbs lower than his best in softer ground

[ComplyOrDie]

I worry about the ground with teahupoo
best RPR on ground that is yielding or better is 159, 10lbs lower than his best in softer ground

Yeah, ground definitely not in his favour, which would mean Lossiemouth would be the bet.

I'm going to give it a miss from a betting perspective, but that's the way I'd be leaning based on the weather/going.


Edit: Just seen potential rain overnight on Saturday. May come up soft enough for him.

[DenmanSacre]

Is there any actual reason why he runs best after a lay off, or did he just lose when he was young, immature and/or over an inadequate trip. No disgrace if he loses to Lossiemouth though. He's been beating more fancied horses through his career though. Glad Willie and Gordon aren't afraid to race their good ones against each other early on.

[opatcho]

They’ve been saving Lossiemouth for the CH hurdle year, and think there’s been a few smoke and mirrors already this season, despite that she remains fav for the race and I think she’ll put Teahupoo to bed on Sunday, winning fairly impressively

three time winner at the course, twice at the fez. Stays two and a half but has the pace and ability for 2 miles.

keen to get her back using TWAF this Sunday

[Carnage at Taunton]

They’ve been saving Lossiemouth for the CH hurdle year, and think there’s been a few smoke and mirrors already this season, despite that she remains fav for the race and I think she’ll put Teahupoo to bed on Sunday, winning fairly impressively

three time winner at the course, twice at the fez. Stays two and a half but has the pace and ability for 2 miles.

keen to get her back using TWAF this Sunday

Think the point you made re ground is key.
No doubt Teahupoo is better in soft, so conditions could well enable Lossiemouth to win this.
On ratings she still has to improve to win, but the ground may mean the improvement needed might not be as much.
If we got significant rain then all that changes for me, plus of course the fitness of both horses is unknown, although I suspect Teahupoo will be pretty sharp going on his two victories in this race.
Still no a no bet race for me, but a fascinating watch for sure.

[opatcho]

A few 50/50 heads up races today

i do think Lossiemouth will step forward and win tomorrow, she was very impressive first time out last season in the international, and in a 4 horse race, over what looks to be quickish ground, I have to side with the quicker of the two horsss