2025 Champion Hurdle

[EnvoiAlien]

Just imagine being a marathon runner,you've trained as much as possible for your race,then when you come out of that race you have another marathon 8 weeks away,would you need to train yourself hard again or would the previous marathon have made you fitter by having ran in it.

You can ready a horse for a race but you only truely get race fit from racing,some trainers are masters at this,others not so good,a lot of it has to do with having horses good enough at home to push each other in gallops,work.

[Quevega]

So the wording was incorrect in your opinion?

But do you not believe trainers know a horses level of fitness based on previous workouts etc... especially one as high profile as Constitution Hill.

Of course this could get mistaken for fitness when it's true regression.

We won't know if he is correct until his next run.

He'll have to come on a fair bit for the festival, IMO, which I hope is just fitness as opposed to regressing.

Agree regarding Kempton not being suitable for both Constitution Hill & Lossiemouth, but even so, 9 lengths to a 142 rated hurdler, having needed to be ridden to sustain, tells me it's either a fitness thing or regression.

Horses can have off days and not perform to their top level but horses coming back from a lay off are given the benefit of doubt for me and I'd put it more down to race fitness, until proven otherwise.

It's obviously a bullshit piece of guesswork. The 85% part at least.
It's typical "horse racing speak" bollocks.
We'll never know, cos there's no way of knowing.

Even if he beats Burdett Road by much further the next day, that might be because Burdett road wasn't as fit as he could be ? or the track, pace and ground was different.

I accept there are reasons to suggest he may not have been as fit as he could possibly be.

My point was that he can say a similar thing without talking bollocks. Only an idiot would believe the fitness percentage stuff that these guys come out with sometimes, because it's just impossible to gauge, and that's a fact.

It would be far more palatable to say that his run suggested that he might not have been as fit as we can get him, or that the track, run of the race and ground wasn't optimum for him.

He's much more likely to improve for the different track in my opinion although there is also a chance he may be fitter on the 11th March. We'll just never know for sure.

[Quevega]

Just imagine being a marathon runner,you've trained as much as possible for your race,then when you come out of that race you have another marathon 8 weeks away,would you need to train yourself hard again or would the previous marathon have made you fitter by having ran in it.

You can ready a horse for a race but you only truely get race fit from racing,some trainers are masters at this,others not so good,a lot of it has to do with having horses good enough at home to push each other in gallops,work.

But unless there's a machine or some form of measurement.
No one will ever be able to be certain in percentage terms on how fit a horse is on any given day, whether they've ran six weeks ago, six months ago or last week.
It's impossible to gauge for certain.

The marathon example can go both ways though, as the run may well have taken away some things also, so then you have to judge the recovery time vs the gains it provided.
Not every marathon runner will run his best time the second marathon he runs in that season. Fact.

You might be able to tell a horse is not as fit/good as they've been in the past and can tell this by their work at home. But not accurately in "fitness" percentage terms.

[Lobos]

Did Nico say that they were going straight to the Festival now with him ?

[Quevega]

Did Nico say that they were going straight to the Festival now with him ?

Kind of, but not categoric.

[ComplyOrDie]

It's obviously a bullshit piece of guesswork. The 85% part at least.
It's typical "horse racing speak" bollocks.
We'll never know, cos there's no way of knowing.

Even if he beats Burdett Road by much further the next day, that might be because Burdett road wasn't as fit as he could be ? or the track, pace and ground was different.

I accept there are reasons to suggest he may not have been as fit as he could possibly be.

My point was that he can say a similar thing without talking bollocks. Only an idiot would believe the fitness percentage stuff that these guys come out with sometimes, because it's just impossible to gauge, and that's a fact.

It would be far more palatable to say that his run suggested that he might not have been as fit as we can get him, or that the track, run of the race and ground wasn't optimum for him.

He's much more likely to improve for the different track in my opinion although there is also a chance he may be fitter on the 11th March. We'll just never know for sure.

I never take the percentages literally but I would be inclined to believe he wasn't at 100% put it that way, which, reading the above, you agree with.

He should have worded it more sensibly, but then he'd probably get asked the 'how fit was he?' question!

There's no gauge to know how fit he was, so for that reason I can understand where you're coming from, but how many people hang on to the exact 85% he was quoted as saying?

If you take the ratings and form at face value then you could come up with multiple variables as to why he underperformed, one of which would be race fitness!

[Lobos]

Kind of, but not categoric.

Cheers Q. Thought they might. Too much of a risk trying anything else .

[Quevega]

I never take the percentages literally but I would be inclined to believe he wasn't at 100% put it that way, which, reading the above, you agree with.

He should have worded it more sensibly, but then he'd probably get asked the 'how fit was he?' question!

There's no gauge to know how fit he was, so for that reason I can understand where you're coming from, but how many people hang on to the exact 85% he was quoted as saying?

If you take the ratings and form at face value then you could come up with multiple variables as to why he underperformed, one of which would be race fitness!

That's was my original point.

People do hang off these people's words and for that reason when they come out with these throwaway pieces of shit, they should be called out.
They'd maybe stop spouting as much nonsense going forward and have more respect for the people who are listening.

He could easily have answered the "how fit is he ?" question sensibly.
Like -
"He seemed as fit as we could imagine given the circumstances - lack of run for a year and stop start training recently etc.
But after having ran, we think he could have been fitter" etc etc.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Cheers Q. Thought they might. Too much of a risk trying anything else .

Said what the trainer said after the Xmas race…..the horse may possibly show them he needs another run, but probably go straight there.

[ComplyOrDie]

That's was my original point.

People do hang off these people's words and for that reason when they come out with these throwaway pieces of shit, they should be called out.
They'd maybe stop spouting as much nonsense going forward and have more respect for the people who are listening.

He could easily have answered the "how fit is he ?" question sensibly.
Like -
"He seemed as fit as we could imagine given the circumstances - lack of run for a year and stop start training recently etc.
But after having ran, we think he could have been fitter" etc etc.

Yeah, but you're the voice of reason, Nico is not!

Fancy a job at Seven Barrows?

[Carnage at Taunton]

With regards the fitness thing ….im pretty sure he was as fit as they could get him, trainer said as much when he said they were quite hard on him to get him in the best shape.
Like everyone else I have no idea how fit he was, but I do know that his horses do improve from their first run as a general rule. Both Sir Gino and Jonbon eg this season.
When it comes to jockeys answering question after question on the same subject,I personally tend to not take their answers as literally as I might do in other situations.
I suspect he doesn’t know exactly what percent of fitness CH was at, and just plucked an amount to tell us he has more to come next time.
Not the best answer if that’s true, but time has taught me not to take it too literally anyway ,as I said.
Hes not the only one in this game that’s done that, there’s shed loads have and do!!
We should now in this game by now imo.

[Quevega]

Yeah, but you're the voice of reason, Nico is not!

Fancy a job at Seven Barrows?

Yeah, to be fair, it was more of a dig at the presenter, Nico has no real obligation to be foot perfect in his communications, other than being polite and honest and understandable.
It was Bell I had most issue with and other presenters who never ask the awkward questions. They could do this without upsetting them if they phrase it right.

Like when a horse wins a big handicap on "unsuitable ground".
I.E trainer has said he needs Good Spring ground all winter to be at his best then wins the County in Heavy Ground.

My first question would be " Congratulations on a great win today ! but you've been telling us he'll be better on good ground, How do you explain this excellent performance ? "

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeah, to be fair, it was more of a dig at the presenter, Nico has no real obligation to be foot perfect in his communications, other than being polite and honest and understandable.
It was Bell I had most issue with and other presenters who never ask the awkward questions. They could do this without upsetting them if they phrase it right.

Like when a horse wins a big handicap on "unsuitable ground".
I.E trainer has said he needs Good Spring ground all winter to be at his best then wins the County in Heavy Ground.

My first question would be " Congratulations on a great win today ! but you've been telling us he'll be better on good ground, How do you explain this excellent performance ? "

Totally agree
Ive lost count of the amount of times I’ve shouted at the Tv(sad bastard)because the presenter has not asked the right question or an important follow up question.
In this case he could easily have expanded the fitness thing to Luke and Fitzy as well, that would have been interesting for me as to get an understanding from people that would know about that sort of thing.

[Exar Essay]

Is any horse with a Spring target 100% at this time of year? I’d be surprised. Whilst Nick’s percentages are guesswork, it isn’t a revelation that Constitution Hill wasn’t trained to peak for the Christmas Hurdle.

[Lobos]

Is any horse with a Spring target 100% at this time of year? I’d be surprised. Whilst Nick’s percentages are guesswork, it isn’t a revelation that Constitution Hill wasn’t trained to peak for the Christmas Hurdle.

Can train them to peak or near peak then ease off and bring them back again if sufficient time between races.