2025 Gold Cup

[Durham Edition]

Not interested?

If Galopin comes out and gets beat again in the Savills chase would you still be interested in backing him for the Gold Cup?

[Carnage at Taunton]

I’ve been around long enough and tossed enough vouchers away to know that the extra distance, on the New Course, at championship pace, takes some getting so if there is any stamina question then it’s best to wait until the horse has proved that before parting with cash.
These ‘up and coming’ types are usually 6/1 or bigger at this stage of the season, F2F is less than half that price….

Very hard to prove that as he won’t be going the distance before the race. I suppose if he runs in the Savills and finishes strongly you would have a good idea.
But yes, at this stage his price does not reflect that.

[Craigy14]

25th November 2024

11/4 - Fact To File
4/1 - Galopin des Champs
14/1 - Spillanes Tower
14/1 - Fastorslow
16/1 - Grey Dawning
16/1 - Gerri Colombe
20/1 - Montys Star
25/1 - bar



If you had to have a bet now, who would it be and why

It would purely be a price thing for me but I reckon Monty’s Star. Although beat by both Fact To File and Spillanes Tower, I can see Henry getting improvement out of him. Both have only enhanced the form so if there is improvement to come he could also bridge the gap from novice to open company. I think the gold cup trip will be ide for him too. I do think it will between WPM’s 2 that will actually win but my approach couldn’t justify those prices at the minute, it’d need to be a chunky wager which isn’t likely until the week itself on any horse I was that confident about.

[Carnage at Taunton]

25th November 2024

11/4 - Fact To File
4/1 - Galopin des Champs
14/1 - Spillanes Tower
14/1 - Fastorslow
16/1 - Grey Dawning
16/1 - Gerri Colombe
20/1 - Montys Star
25/1 - bar



If you had to have a bet now, who would it be and why

GDC to win, good reappearance and know he stays well , fair price too
E/W Gerri Colombe , ran well last year, could do the same again, not a good reappearance I know, but we know he’s better than that, and I think he’s a fair shout of placing again

[Eggs]

….i wonder if there’s a ‘changing of the guard’ and F2F is leading the newcomers. Out with old and in with the new.

I thought Gerri C held a bit of e/w value, he and GDC were some way clear in this years GC but on reflection perhaps they should have been.

[Wayward Lad]

….i wonder if there’s a ‘changing of the guard’ and F2F is leading the newcomers. Out with old and in with the new.

I thought Gerri C held a bit of e/w value, he and GDC were some way clear in this years GC but on reflection perhaps they should have been.

Watch out for the Ageist police Eggs !

Winning 2m 3f race for the first race of the season is a world away from winning a 3m 2f race around Cheltenham methinks

I’d even go as far as saying it’s a different discipline……..a bit like comparing a 800m/1500m runner against a 5000m/10000m runner……..yes the 800m/1500m would run well in the 5000m/10000m race, but when the race starts in earnest over the last few laps then he/she will struggle……apart from Kauto then very rare for a horse to have a high level of speed and stamina

I thought GDC ran a perfect first race of the season and warranted a price cut not the opposite

Let’s wait and see FTF in open company over at least 3m

Us Oldies still can some ‘led in our pencils’ and can still ‘run with the hounds’……don’t give up on us yet !

[Lobos]

If Galopin comes out and gets beat again in the Savills chase would you still be interested in backing him for the Gold Cup?

Already backed him in a big roll up so he's in the bag.

[Runragged]

25th November 2024

11/4 - Fact To File
4/1 - Galopin des Champs
14/1 - Spillanes Tower
14/1 - Fastorslow
16/1 - Grey Dawning
16/1 - Gerri Colombe
20/1 - Montys Star
25/1 - bar



If you had to have a bet now, who would it be and why

At those prices I would go in again on Fastorslow. Assume because he was 'only' 4th then he has been written off again. However, he was only 4lb off the rating he got last year in the race and was eased off here for the final 100 yards when it was clear what his finishing position would be. This years renewal looks a lot stronger whilst he jumped and travelled well up until the 3rd last where he seemed to be done for pace. Driven along upon landing after the 3rd last he was still only 1 1/2 lengths down jumping the last which to me suggests he just wasn't quick enough. Possibly, as he gets older and trained more with the Gold Cup in mind that he is losing a yard of pace?

Then we have other factors, the change in jockey from regular partner JJ Slevin to experienced amateur Derek O'Connor wouldn't of helped matters with JJ having ridden the horse in all his previous chase starts. Plus there is the questionable yard form. Just one winner for the yard since May and another 2 finishing in the places from 30 to have run. Fastorslow was also pulled from the Savills Chase last year due to the late rain turning the ground soft, heavy in places so not sure he would of appreciated the rain that Punchestown had albeit would of helped turn the race into more of a stamina test.

I can understand the argument for both horses at the head of the market. I put up an argument about novice horses going straight into grade 1 open company and he defied that emphatically. Mullins didn't seem overly confident either in his Sportinglife column so for the horse to do what he did suggests he is special. However, he now has to prove this at 3m+. The Gold Cup is a completely different test to the John Durkan, a race many use to give their horse a comfortable start.

This was an improvement in ratings for Galopin Des Champs from last years race and having jumped with enthusiasm there was plenty to take as a starting point for the season with the goal being to win 3 Gold Cups. Jumping the last still in the lead, he was outpaced by the quicker pair of Fact To File and Spillane's Tower, who it should be remembered was a winner over 2m last season and a G1 winner over 2 1/2m. To be honest, I'm not sure you could of asked for much more from GDC as a starting point for the season.

[Wayward Lad]

At those prices I would go in again on Fastorslow. Assume because he was 'only' 4th then he has been written off again. However, he was only 4lb off the rating he got last year in the race and was eased off here for the final 100 yards when it was clear what his finishing position would be. This years renewal looks a lot stronger whilst he jumped and travelled well up until the 3rd last where he seemed to be done for pace. Driven along upon landing after the 3rd last he was still only 1 1/2 lengths down jumping the last which to me suggests he just wasn't quick enough. Possibly, as he gets older and trained more with the Gold Cup in mind that he is losing a yard of pace?

Then we have other factors, the change in jockey from regular partner JJ Slevin to experienced amateur Derek O'Connor wouldn't of helped matters with JJ having ridden the horse in all his previous chase starts. Plus there is the questionable yard form. Just one winner for the yard since May and another 2 finishing in the places from 30 to have run. Fastorslow was also pulled from the Savills Chase last year due to the late rain turning the ground soft, heavy in places so not sure he would of appreciated the rain that Punchestown had albeit would of helped turn the race into more of a stamina test.

I can understand the argument for both horses at the head of the market. I put up an argument about novice horses going straight into grade 1 open company and he defied that emphatically. Mullins didn't seem overly confident either in his Sportinglife column so for the horse to do what he did suggests he is special. However, he now has to prove this at 3m+. The Gold Cup is a completely different test to the John Durkan, a race many use to give their horse a comfortable start.

This was an improvement in ratings for Galopin Des Champs from last years race and having jumped with enthusiasm there was plenty to take as a starting point for the season with the goal being to win 3 Gold Cups. Jumping the last still in the lead, he was outpaced by the quicker pair of Fact To File and Spillane's Tower, who it should be remembered was a winner over 2m last season and a G1 winner over 2 1/2m. To be honest, I'm not sure you could of asked for much more from GDC as a starting point for the season.

Agree…….GDC A++

Fastorslow……no worse a chance in the GC than before Sundays race

Maybe one of the few times bookmakers offer some value is when they ‘knee jerk’ react to some results in prep races before the festival?

[chunker86]

Done a bit on GDCs form and RPRs over his chasing career

Sept - Nov //3/3
Dec - Mar 11F/111/111/
Apr - Sept 1/2/2/

Sept - Nov //161/163
Dec - Mar 163,168,175/172,174,183/184,178,183/
Apr - Sept 177/172/168/

Seasonal Debuts of 163, 172,161 (The 172 when the John Durkan was delayed until 19th December) - Sunday was 163
Second Run of 168,174,184
Cheltenham Runs of 175,183,183

Although last year he was beaten by Fastorslow in the John Durkan, he was also beaten by Appreciate It, who is miles off Gold Cup standard, so imo the John Durkan form is to be taken with a pinch of salt when looking at the Gold Cup.

Historically we can see GDC improves 15-20lb from the John Durkan to the Gold Cup and is going down the tried and tested path, and is unbeaten between December and 1st April - apart from tipping up in the Turners.

He's only going to be 9 and based on Sunday i see no reason why he won't run to high 170s/180s at Christmas in the Savills and 180s in the Gold Cup.

Fact to Files debut chasing season, he also showed a marked improvement from seasonal debut to Cheltenham, but from a much lower base.

140,162,166.

140 was on soft/heavy over 2m4 at Navan, he then improved significantly from debut to Christmas to Cheltenham, but off a much lower base then GDC.

His RSA win was rated 166 compared to Galopins Turners race where he was given a RPR of 175.

On Sunday he got a RPR of 169, so a career best on seasonal debut, would suggest there is more to come., but he'll need to find a stone to beat GDC at his best.

If he can live with GDC at the Savills, then we have a Gold Cup contender on our hands - but until then - long live the King!

[Kevloaf]

Some interest data to back up what seems to be a fair assessment!

[DenmanSacre]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/watch-and-learn-graeme-north-timefigure-analysis/222067

Article on the time performances

[Istabraq]

so imo the John Durkan form is to be taken with a pinch of salt when looking at the Gold Cup.

I'm surprised so few realise this.
Does anyone in here take 2m 1f form literally when trying to find the Stayers winner ?
There is very close to a mile difference between the John Durkan and the Gold Cup and the November race is often a seasonal reappearance, we all know Mullins gets his horses back later than most so it's unlikely they'll be fully wound up so early in the season, March is a long way off and let's not forget Punchestown is a fairly big event in Ireland too, the horses will be trained to peak for the big festivals...

[Quevega]

I get that the trip is very different.

But when you get 2 horses coming out of novice seasons and running like that first time up in open company of that calibre, especially one like Fact to File who is very lightly raced then I'd say that;s a big dent in the older horses armour. And a massive positive for the potential for even more improvement from the front 2.

Not so much GDC IMO as he has clearly shown how good he is in March over the Gold cup trip, and has previously shown to be vulnerable at this course and this time of the year, and this year they openly said he was behind in his work. So he gets a pass from me and I very much like his price now, although I do fear for what Fact to File might do to him at Leopardstown in the savills. So have held off from backing him.

I can see the excuses for Fastorslow with the jockey and all that - but his chances took a more severe dent in my head anyhow.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Thing is that FTF and ST have both won over 3m and beaten the same horse. Not convinced one is a better stayer than the other on evidence and not convinced Their should be that much difference in their current prices.
So imo FTF is now too short and ST is probably a bit of value at 12/1?
To be honest with FTF I just keep thinking that GDC will be too strong for him at the finish, but with ST I’m not so sure.
If GC turns up on his game I can see him beating FTF as well.
Anyway lots still to happen yet.