2025 Novice Chasers

[Odin]

For future reference, when you get in a position like this it's always worth working out what would happen if ?
I've had Majborough at big odds cos i took a view pre season that paid off.

But never had Gino as a single only in some solid doubles (C Hill & Ballyburn) both obvious enough and solid enough for me to lay him at 7/10 to cover those stakes and a bit more.
I even cashed the C Hill double when news broke of his injury as I calculated that I could get back on nearer the day (expecting Majboroughs price to get closer), and the risk wasn't worth it.

And during this time when Gino was odds on, Jango was available at 380-1 + bigger, Only by Night 330-1 and bigger, Ballyburn was as big as 200+ who I'd also not backed for the arkle at any point. Not to mention Gidleigh at triple figures. Even Caldwell Potter was 400+ and I was able to lay off a bit on him this week at 60's.

So the moral of this story is watch the exchange more, as even a pound at some of these prices is good cover for most punters staking levels.

It does mean though, that if you get too creative with your thinking then you can spray money all over betfair. (guilty )-
I've come out smelling of roses on the arkle but that's not the same in other races.

But if you are focussing on a handful of races and building books then it sounds like you could definitely benefit from some small plays on betfair for cover.

Horses like Jango and Only by Night I've been able to trim down (lay at shorter) and squeeze up returns on all others.

This is 1000000000% where I've fucked it this year - not gonna do books next year anyway because it's not worth the hassle (I haven't found it fun and didn't last year but because I doubled my money I went again) - but anyone who is going to or does do books, I can't recommend this advice enough. Similarly Spectre advice regarding laying off stakes where you can. I didn't do either this year and I'm now scrambling around!

(I'll repeat though, I will be fine - just not as good as I was a week ago, and definitely not as good as I was two weeks ago pre-DRF and the Kopek/Gaelic debacle )

PS - tagging Rooster Booster for no reason other than because I know he loves the name Gaelic Warrior

[Quevega]

This is 1000000000% where I've fucked it this year - not gonna do books next year anyway because it's not worth the hassle (I haven't found it fun and didn't last year but because I doubled my money I went again) - but anyone who is going to or does do books, I can't recommend this advice enough. Similarly Spectre regarding laying off stakes where you can. I didn't do either this year and I'm now scrambling around!

(I'll repeat though, I will be fine - just not as good as I was a week ago, and definitely not as good as I was two weeks ago pre-DRF and the Kopek/Gaelic debacle )

It's a massive undertaking really and like spectre has mentioned, it's worth trialling it on one or two races only, if at all. He'll have been doing it for years.

I tend to fall into having a book every now and then, it is definitely not a plan to have a full book, my plan is more along the lines of having 2-6 key runners each race. I don't really chase the place money either.

Even what I do takes a hell of a lot of time. Probably not worth the effort to be honest, but I enjoy it mostly, and I think that's because I hedge and de-risk more than most, which means that I don't get the massive downers when the inevitable happens sometimes. Like when Gino came out, I was smug as fuck, but really disappointed from the racing point of view, as I'm there Tuesday and that race would have been great.

Obviously on the other side, my approach to be safer means the big highs are also fewer.
My personality lends itself more to not losing and winning smaller amounts. As opposed to the big highs and lows that some other strategies might bring.

I think it also keeps me in the game longer, as the guys that are shit or bust normally end up bust. In my experience.

[Rooster Booster]

Agree Maj looks winner

But will be his first time off levels against older horses (was only 2 pounds in Dublin) …,and fast as his jumping style is, it also opens up more possibility of clouting one

Still looks a good race ….lot of ones we are talking about as place potential are mid 150 RPR horses…,that still makes it a strong Arkle & with a potential superstar in

He’ll be giving wait to the winner …a little tongue in cheek obviously as I think he’s the real deal but she will give him a mighty race in receipt of weight if this is where they end up going. I really rate her and her run style and the jockeys style will suit how I expect this race to be run.

[TigerRolllllll]

It's a massive undertaking really and like spectre has mentioned, it's worth trialling it on one or two races only, if at all. He'll have been doing it for years.

I tend to fall into having a book every now and then, it is definitely not a plan to have a full book, my plan is more along the lines of having 2-6 key runners each race. I don't really chase the place money either.

Even what I do takes a hell of a lot of time. Probably not worth the effort to be honest, but I enjoy it mostly, and I think that's because I hedge and de-risk more than most, which means that I don't get the massive downers when the inevitable happens sometimes. Like when Gino came out, I was smug as fuck, but really disappointed from the racing point of view, as I'm there Tuesday and that race would have been great.

Obviously on the other side, my approach to be safer means the big highs are also fewer.
My personality lends itself more to not losing and winning smaller amounts. As opposed to the big highs and lows that some other strategies might bring.

I think it also keeps me in the game longer, as the guys that are shit or bust normally end up bust. In my experience.

Agree re highs & lows

I like to pick horses I want to cheer & go bigger on them, so least I have similar feeling

I’m retired tho so have time & do it more for fun than making money ….it keeps u really up to date with form & this also gives me edge in things like ten to follows , which I do with racing clubs & tote …,got really close to winning Tote one couple years ago…,went to final race

if anyone does try more of a book, I’d look at easier races like Arkle, Mares Chase, etc with less permutations…,and forget spuds race altogether..,,,but Novice hurdles races get super complicated at times

[That Horse]

I think it also keeps me in the game longer, as the guys that are shit or bust normally end up bust. In my experience.

Yeah, that wouldn't be my cup of tea either. More likely to fail as you say.

If it verges on not being enjoyable then I don't see the point. I tried doing a diary on here one year and even that was too much for me and sucked the enjoyment out - kudos to those who do.

The only book building I do is by accident usually and the year Galopin won his first gold cup, I felt smug as fuck as I realised I had him and all the main threats covered, so allowed myself to cover the also rans in Sounds Russian and Eldorado Allen, guaranteeing profit no matter what.

I don't use the exchange as Betfair were the first bookies to restrict me but I might look again at it after this Cheltenham.

[Lobos]

Anyone else feel like their Arkle position just fell apart this week (from a book building perspective)?

I started this week with the race completely sown up - Sir Gino/Maj/Leau/Mistergif/Ile Atlantique - convinced I had the winner and two places. I now find myself scrambling to cover horses like Jango Baie who isn't fast enough according to his own trainer, Only By Night who I'm sure isn't good enough so will almost certainly take on, and Gidleigh Park who wasn't going until yesterday but would be a threat at least in place terms. Bonkers situation...

Could happen again if BDA goes CH which would affect both races hugely. Also, if Corbetts bombs tomorrow then JP may feel he'll want F2F in the GC which would then blow the Ryanair open and also potentially change the look of the CC with IEF defecting. Final Demand could get injured meaning Kopek switching back to the Turners. So much could happen. Nothing written in stone.

[Big Bucks]

Jesus, you really have it in for Corbetts Cross Lobos

[Killiney]

Anyone else feel like their Arkle position just fell apart this week (from a book building perspective)?

I started this week with the race completely sown up - Sir Gino/Maj/Leau/Mistergif/Ile Atlantique - convinced I had the winner and two places. I now find myself scrambling to cover horses like Jango Baie who isn't fast enough according to his own trainer, Only By Night who I'm sure isn't good enough so will almost certainly take on, and Gidleigh Park who wasn't going until yesterday but would be a threat at least in place terms. Bonkers situation...

Did I miss something from the trainer about Gidleigh (I have him at 999/1 on Exchange) as I thought the intention was to bypass the Festival. I know Sir Gino defection may have caused a rethink but I have not read anything from Fry. I pretty much missed Sir Gino as I was against a 5 yr old but Mistergif was certainly a blow to my book.

[Odin]

Did I miss something from the trainer about Gidleigh (I have him at 999/1 on Exchange) as I thought the intention was to bypass the Festival. I know Sir Gino defection may have caused a rethink but I have not read anything from Fry. I pretty much missed Sir Gino as I was against a 5 yr old but Mistergif was certainly a blow to my book.

https://m.attheraces.com/news/2025/February/13/gidleigh-park-all-set-for-pendil-mission

Post 3266. I'm considering an NRNB bet as it's not certain he goes, but there's a logic to them rolling the dice if he wins easily at the Pendil and it would have been easy to completely rule the race out in that article like they essentially did pre-Gino defection if they were still thinking Kempton then Aintree was a foregone conclusion (equally, they could have taken Gidleigh out of the confirmations as they were post Gino defection)

[Lobos]

Jesus, you really have it in for Corbetts Cross Lobos

Yeah, that one belongs on Weston Super Mare Beach.

[chunker86]

Recurring line being trotted out is that the best horses don't always win the Browns, sometimes the classier horses are outstayed by plodders up the hill.

So i did a bit of a 10 year analysis on Browns / RSA winners and places.

In theory, without the Turners mid trip novice chase, there should be more higher rated horses running in this.

Form of SP Fav 1-2-1-1-3-3-1-1-3-1
Form of pre race top rated RPR 1-1/2-2-1-3-1-1-1-1-1 (Gerri Colombe and The Real Whacker were both 158 in 2023) (Gerri C, Ahoy Senor & Allaho the only 3 pre race top rated on RPRs not to win.

RPR 160 + - 7 Winners , 3 2nds, 3 3rds (F2F, LHP, Monkfish, TOTG, P Percy, Might Bite, Blaklion) (Ahoy Senor, Monalee, Whisper) (Allaho, Delta Work, More of That)
RPR 155 - 159 - 3 Winners, 4 2nds, 2 3rds (The Real Whacker, Champ, Don Poli) (Montys Star, Gerri C, Santini, Southfield Theatre) (Elegant Escape, Bellshill)
RPR 150-154 - 0 Winners, 3 2nds, 3 3rds, () (Fidlerontheroof, Minella Indo, Shaneshill) (GDM, The Big Breakaway, Wounded Warrior)
RPR 140-149 - 0 Winners, 0 2nds, 2 3rds () () (Giovinco, Bronn)

From a non exhaustive search of unplaced horses

Pre Race RPR 160 + - 2 - (Black Corton 5th, No More Heroes 4th)
Pre Race RPR 155-160 - 7 (Stay Away Faye PU, Sir Gerhard 9th, Thyme Hill 8th, Farouk D'Alene, Al Boum Photo, Acapella Bourgous 6th, Kings Palace 6th) (2 Fell when in contention)

Chase Starts
Winners - 3-2-4-3-3-2-5-4-5-2

Hurdles Form

I can only find 3 horses with a Hurdle RPR of 160+ that have run in this - Thyme Hill, Whisper & More of That - all beaten, all had more than 1 season hurdling.

5/10 winners had a hurdle best RPR of 153-156

However, the last 3 winners had a hurdle best RPR below 140 - (Fact to File didn't run over hurdles, Whacker 138 and LHP 129)

Horses at the top of the market

Ballyburn RPR 160 (Hurdle 163)
Springwell Bay RPR 158 (Hurdle 145)
Lecky Watson RPR 154 (Hurdle 144)
BDA RPR 152 (Hurdle 147)
Croke Park RPR 152 (Hurdle 136)
Jingo Blue RPR 150 (Hurdle 143)
Dancing City RPR 149 (Hurdle 151)
Gorgeous Tom RPR 147 (Hurdle 133)
Champ Keily RPR 145 (Hurdle 151)

Not Entered
Handstands RPR 158
Jango Baie RPR 158 (Hurdle 148)

In summary,

Ballyburn wins
Springwell Bay is an EW bet if he comes here
Dancing City place lay

[Saxon Warrior]

Great Summary
Pays to include a top rated fav, in this race, for sure.

chunker86

If anyone hasn't backed Ballyburn, he's the sort of horse, if I had missed him, that I would definitely consider backing in double(s) to get some benefit if he won (and beat my picks).

Even with following year Festival picks, that have been priced up.

for example
● Formal Demand may have BANC 2026 prices before Ballyburn runs in 2025, so I'd look at a double on those (or something similar)

[Benjy23]

I reckon Stellar Story is the each way value still... 20/1.

He'd fall into your RPR no winners and some places category above mind.

[Lobos]

I reckon Stellar Story is the each way value still... 20/1.

He'd fall into your RPR no winners and some places category above mind.

Is he going for the BANC ?

[Many Clouds]

Is he going for the BANC ?

Gordon said so in an interview I saw with him last night on YouTube. Mentioned BDA, Croke Park and Stellar Story for it.