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2025 Novice Chasers

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  • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
    Don't think either of them will trouble ballyburn and dancing city

    I'd be pretty surprised if the winner wasn't one of those two
    I’ll give you Ballyburn as he could just be the class angle in the race but proper stayers win this race more than classy ones. Not sure how you can say Dancing City has a better chance than Stellar Story as it stands?

    He’s beat that one at Cheltenham however way we look at it. I’d say as long as it’s soft Stellar Story has as much chance as Dancing city imo. I think the Xmas run you could just write off as it was on good to yielding which doesn’t suit him at all imo.

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    • Originally posted by Eggs View Post
      ….Stellar into as low as 12-1 NHC, BFSB hung onto 40-1 AP for a bit but have now cut to 16-1, 16-1 NRNB for BANC. BDA out to 10-1 BANC.
      If he were going BANC then no reason to hold him back from winning today. Think he'll go one of the Nationals

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      • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
        Don't think either of them will trouble ballyburn and dancing city

        I'd be pretty surprised if the winner wasn't one of those two
        Agree. If you've back those two you are laughing.

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        • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

          If he were going BANC then no reason to hold him back from winning today. Think he'll go one of the Nationals
          He's not in the UK one obviously,
          He's likely to get a mid 150's mark in Ireland also so would make the Irish difficult also.

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          • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post

            I’ll give you Ballyburn as he could just be the class angle in the race but proper stayers win this race more than classy ones. Not sure how you can say Dancing City has a better chance than Stellar Story as it stands?

            He’s beat that one at Cheltenham however way we look at it. I’d say as long as it’s soft Stellar Story has as much chance as Dancing city imo. I think the Xmas run you could just write off as it was on good to yielding which doesn’t suit him at all imo.
            His bartlett win was a fluke in a strangely run race

            None of his other form is much good imo

            Dancing city is just better than him ability wise from what iv seen

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            • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

              If he were going BANC then no reason to hold him back from winning today. Think he'll go one of the Nationals
              He’d be near top of the weights as it stands in an Irish National which surely isn’t great and pretty sure lower weights tend to do better in that race. Intense Raffles won it off 140 this year, Stellar Story maybe 8-10lbs higher than that?

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              • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                He's not in the UK one obviously,
                He's likely to get a mid 150's mark in Ireland also so would make the Irish difficult also.
                Can't see why they'd hold him back today?????Maybe to please owner of winner? No idea. All I know is, he could and should have won that.

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                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                  Can't see why they'd hold him back today?????Maybe to please owner of winner? No idea. All I know is, he could and should have won that.
                  They might be talking to the jockey about it as we speak.

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                  • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                    Can't see why they'd hold him back today?????Maybe to please owner of winner? No idea. All I know is, he could and should have won that.
                    Well backed stablemate fav like. They've not done that for a handicap mark have they. Finishing a head either way isn't fooling the handicapper when he's giving 5lb to the winner.

                    He'll be well above the NHC threshold and that antepost price from Betfair seems pretty cheeky... Although I don't mind that as much as most tbh

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                    • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

                      His bartlett win was a fluke in a strangely run race

                      None of his other form is much good imo

                      Dancing city is just better than him ability wise from what iv seen
                      A fluke in what way? That jukebox man probably threw it away? I’d agree with that a little, but he was 4 lengths down jumping the last and made up the ground to win.

                      Dancing City was 7 lengths back. If it’s heavy or soft at least then I’d say both have equally a good chance.

                      Dancing City maybe has better ability can’t argue with that but Stellar Story revered the DRF form at the place that matters, Cheltenham.

                      Ive backed Dancing City btw and not Stellar Story

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                      • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post

                        A fluke in what way? That jukebox man probably threw it away? I’d agree with that a little, but he was 4 lengths down jumping the last and made up the ground to win.

                        Dancing City was 7 lengths back. If it’s heavy or soft at least then I’d say both have equally a good chance.

                        Dancing City maybe has better ability can’t argue with that but Stellar Story revered the DRF form at the place that matters, Cheltenham.

                        Ive backed Dancing City btw and not Stellar Story
                        It was a fluke because absolutely nothing else he's ever done suggests he's a grade 1 horse

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                        • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                          They might be talking to the jockey about it as we speak.
                          Nah, that was perfect race planning Q and you know it. Ridiculously obvious though !

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                          • I'm just trying to stop myself backing SS as well for the BANC this season. Have already backed BDA via FOMO because of this thread against everything I'd thought. Today just highlighted I was right.

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                            • I think it's going to be the only race I actually find the winner in this year! Nightmare.

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                              • Elliott said: “Better Days Ahead wasn’t doing a stroke in front. It wasn’t ideal, he needs something to make it. Jordan (Gainford on Three Card Brag) took him along for as long as he could and probably ran a good race in his own right, Jordan’s lad.

                                “I was thrilled with Stellar Story. He keeps guessing at his fences and I told Danny (Gilligan) to try and get him around and try to get a bit of confidence into him. He gave him a brilliant ride – probably a bit unlucky. Number one, we had to try and get him around.

                                “I’d imagine it will be the Brown Advisory for Better Days Ahead and Stellar Story could go Brown Advisory as well. Three Card Brag needed that run to qualify for the Aintree Grand National.”

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