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2025 Novice Chasers

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  • Originally posted by AaronLad View Post

    Finish closer to the front two than most anticipate
    I just meant on ratings it may be a bit closer

    As for the Arkle I still think SG beats Maj but would not be shocked if LDS with his experience proves me wrong

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    • As a graded snob I never really saw leau du sud as a contender

      Perhaps he will prove me wrong as edwardstone did

      This though does look a better renewal than the one edwardstone won

      I'm a firm believer in latent ability and LDS had plenty of opportunity over hurdles to show he had genuine grade 1 ability and did not

      Like third time lucki I expect he will fall short
      Last edited by FinalFurlong91; 9 February 2025, 01:07 AM.

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      • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
        As a graded snob I never really saw leau du sud as a contender

        Perhaps he will prove me wrong as edwardstone did

        This though does look a better renewal than the one edwardstone won

        I'm a firm believer in latent ability and LDS had plenty of opportunity over hurdles to show he had genuine grade 1 ability and did not

        Like third time lucki I expect he will fall short
        I’m confident he’s a better horse than third time.
        Yes, I think he will fall short as well, but I’m a little wary of him for SG.
        The extra experience is useful in this race.

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        • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

          I’m confident he’s a better horse than third time.
          Yes, I think he will fall short as well, but I’m a little wary of him for SG.
          The extra experience is useful in this race.
          LDS really is a spectacular jumper of a fence. Brilliant. He also showed yesterday that he can keep up a searching pace for the whole 2m. They really went for it didn't they. Great to watch.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

            LDS really is a spectacular jumper of a fence. Brilliant. He also showed yesterday that he can keep up a searching pace for the whole 2m. They really went for it didn't they. Great to watch.
            Yes, I thought so as well was no hiding place as they say!!

            I always think with the Arkle that it’s dangerous to simply dismiss a good jumper at speed.
            These novices over 2m are never far away from a mistake or two and imo the more experienced the better.
            At the prices I just think it wise to have LDS onside.

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            • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

              LDS really is a spectacular jumper of a fence. Brilliant. He also showed yesterday that he can keep up a searching pace for the whole 2m. They really went for it didn't they. Great to watch.
              I thought that as well mate, they were doing low 13s furlongs all the way down the back (I’m sure one was 12s as well, hoping the timer was correct) which was a crazy pace and impressive over fences. Possibly tired and idled a little up the run in so the finishing distance was probably worth more than it ended up.

              Agree he probably won’t be able to live with the 2 five year olds but you never know.

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              • Don't know if this has been covered, but thoughts on the ground having an effect in the Arkle?

                Sir Gino very much looks mostly all speed to me, think Majborough would prefer some cut in the ground.

                Obviously can't predict the weather but IF conditions came up Soft/Heavy or worse I do think Majborough would come in for plenty of support, and could see a flip flop in the market.

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                • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                  Don't know if this has been covered, but thoughts on the ground having an effect in the Arkle?

                  Sir Gino very much looks mostly all speed to me, think Majborough would prefer some cut in the ground.

                  Obviously can't predict the weather but IF conditions came up Soft/Heavy or worse I do think Majborough would come in for plenty of support, and could see a flip flop in the market.
                  It'll be soft at best on the chase course for the first race of the festival.
                  Natural or not.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                    Don't know if this has been covered, but thoughts on the ground having an effect in the Arkle?

                    Sir Gino very much looks mostly all speed to me, think Majborough would prefer some cut in the ground.

                    Obviously can't predict the weather but IF conditions came up Soft/Heavy or worse I do think Majborough would come in for plenty of support, and could see a flip flop in the market.
                    Totally agree. Majborough will be the better stayer of the two . Guaranteed pace so if Soft it'll take some getting.

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                    • Majborough will be favourite by the end of the day the way Nicky's sounding

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                      • someone got dirty hands

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                        • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                          It'll be soft at best on the chase course for the first race of the festival.
                          Natural or not.
                          I totally agree Q, and the 13/8 price for ‘soft’ for the first day of the festival with Unibet (as opposed to 8/15 good to soft) is a stand out price. The water table in Gloucestershire is still very high, and I was as gutted as I’ll ever be last year when I’d invested a very good amount of money on heavy at 16/1, with the saver being soft at 7/4 only for it to be declared heavy after the Arkle. That’ll haunt me for a good few years yet. I got whinged at on here for talking about weather and the length of grass - but if the bookmakers are going to challenge me on giving me a generous ‘odds against’ price of soft, then I’m going to use the fact my liability against them is in my favour. Let’s just see, but if it’s good to soft on the first day (the odds on price quoted), I’ll be mildly surprised.

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                          • Disappointed with Better Days Ahead there like. Looked like Stellar Story could've won if they wanted him to. And was giving him 5lb.

                            They seemed to go very slow though.

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                            • Think BDA needed that race.
                              He’s a proper stayer for sure.

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                              • Originally posted by Benjy23 View Post
                                Disappointed with Better Days Ahead there like. Looked like Stellar Story could've won if they wanted him to. And was giving him 5lb.

                                They seemed to go very slow though.
                                Not winning the BANC on that evidence is he

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