2025 Novice Chasers

[TigerRolllllll]

Also Paggane for Willie tomorrow might be worth small NRNB for Mares Chase

[Eggs]

Brides Hill entered Thursday

Still 20-1 NRNB is great price

Needs good ground, but if gets it then one of highest rated in race

…today’s Cromwell stable tour;

She is probably going to run in a Listed mares’ chase at Huntingdon on Thursday. That will hopefully put her spot on for the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but she likes a sounder surface and wouldn’t be likely to run if it came up testing.

[TigerRolllllll]

…today’s Cromwell stable tour;

She is probably going to run in a Listed mares’ chase at Huntingdon on Thursday. That will hopefully put her spot on for the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but she likes a sounder surface and wouldn’t be likely to run if it came up testing.

NRNB NO brainer - one of best value bets about at mo

[Wayward Lad]

Brides Hill entered Thursday

Still 20-1 NRNB is great price

Needs good ground, but if gets it then one of highest rated in race

Could well be the value as this race does look wide open IMO, with only Biolum showing form, but maybe too reliant on soft/heavy ground conditions?

What’s the ground normally like on the last day at Cheltenham?……regardless of weather conditions then I’d have thought it would be pretty churned up with how many races already have been run on it by the Mares race?

Cromwell could have both extremes of ground conditions covered with his entries in this race

[TigerRolllllll]

Worth chancing Zenta NRNB too at 40-1

[Wayward Lad]

Worth chancing Zenta NRNB too at 40-1

Not sure she’s taken to fencing very well, based upon her two runs so far this season ?

[Quevega]

If we really want to have a conversation about bias I’m not sure highlighting one of the very few that demonstrate a British bias is necessarily the fairest way to do it. It is however safer

I think you understood the point I made. But if not.

Having a bias towards Irish or Mullins trained horses is completely natural, on an antepost discussion thread for the Cheltenham festival in the year 2025.
And is probably less likely to have any serious detriment in general/overall - In view of the likely objectives. IMO

Not sure what safe or fairness has to do with anything.

Pointing out the dangers of bias and providing an example of one's own weakness in that regard is surely not harming anyone ?
Certainly not intending to do so, in fact it's the opposite.

[Rooster Booster]

I think you understood the point I made. But if not.

Having a bias towards Irish or Mullins trained horses is completely natural, on an antepost discussion thread for the Cheltenham festival in the year 2025.
And is probably less likely to have any serious detriment in general/overall - In view of the likely objectives. IMO

Not sure what safe or fairness has to do with anything.

Pointing out the dangers of bias and providing an example of one's own weakness in that regard is surely not harming anyone ?
Certainly not intending to do so, in fact it's the opposite.

Happy to discuss further over private message

[Quevega]

Happy to discuss further over private message

[TigerRolllllll]

Not sure she’s taken to fencing very well, based upon her two runs so far this season ?

Agree totally & prob be same

But if she does with hurdle form then could have great 40-2 bet and if she’s still rubbish then won’t go & money back

Mullins yard in form now

[Quevega]

In the Pocket looks pretty weak on exchange.
Might reflect his chances and the strong front 2 in the betting but been matched at triple figures and 70's most recently.

[ComplyOrDie]

In the Pocket looks pretty weak on exchange.
Might reflect his chances and the strong front 2 in the betting but been matched at triple figures and 70's most recently.

The fact he got entered in the handicap at the DRF tells me all I needed to know about him. I cashed what I could of him off the back of that.

Suspect the JR Novice Handicap Chase could be on the cards for him (not priced up yet).

At the very least he'd keep the weights down for the other JP runners, but could actually go with a chance stepping up in trip.

[FinalFurlong91]

In the Pocket looks pretty weak on exchange.
Might reflect his chances and the strong front 2 in the betting but been matched at triple figures and 70's most recently.

I'd imagine he's going to run in the 2m4f novice handicap

[Kevloaf]

I see Handstands isn't going to the festival
Shock
Almost like he's not good enough
Imagine being beaten by him but single figures for the BANC

[DenmanSacre]

https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/bl...chase-(grade-1)

Not sure why I even read this but this must be the shittest argument I've ever seen for picking a horse to win at Cheltenham (I'm knocking the argument and not the pick of Ballyburn).

BALLYBURN raised plenty of clockwatching eyebrows when he won last year’s Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle in a time 9.48 seconds faster than friend-of-this-column Langer Dan managed in the Coral Cup on the same card almost an hour and a half later.
Like all time references, this needs to be put into context and when it is it begins to look seriously impressive.

In the last 20 years, and by my calculations, the Gallagher - the Ballymore or indeed Sun Alliance Hurdle if you are as old as me - has been run faster than the Coral Cup (same track, distance and day obvs! ) on 13 occasions and mostly by a relatively insignificant margin of up to and around two seconds.

The outliers are Faugheen (4.62 secs faster in 2014), No Refuge (4.8 secs in 2005) and Envoi Allen (6.67 secs in 2020). No Refuge turned out not to be as good as he could have been, but Envoi Allen was a subsequent Ryanair winner and Faugheen of course went on to win the following year’s Champion Hurdle.

Illustrious company indeed and even better when you factor in the bigger differential that Ballyburn recorded. And just to add further context, turn-of-the-millennium greats like Istabraq and Hardy Eustace didn’t manage to get close to those 9.48 seconds either.

So he beat Langer Dan by 9.48 seconds which is historically brilliant. Mentions the time differentials with Faugheen, Envoi Allen etc.

What he doesn't state is that Jimmy du Seuil beat Langer Dan by 6.2 seconds (Envoi Allen-esque!), Ile Atlantique beat Langer Dan by 5.35 seconds (move out the way Faugheen you boat) and Mercurey a lowly 3.86 seconds.

I'm sure he's lining up for the combo multiples across those in the race this year as they're all historically great.

He got paid to write that. Unbelievable.