2025 Novice Chasers

[AaronLad]

It's not often mentioned but Gino was getting 6lbs that day too, but i do think he had an awful lot left in the tank, he sauntered home after the last.

I think it's more a case of Maj's performance on Saturday not getting the recognition it should - he was 4s slower the Solness, but those 2 races the only 2 on the whole card that were faster than standard. His appearance of scruffy jumping, even though the IQ Data suggests he was gaining at every fence, probably makes that performance look a little less polished than it was.

They are far and away the best 2 mile novice chasers about and it should be a cracking battle.

The cross border form line through Touch Me Not shows L'Eau Du Sud is best of the rest but still a fair way off the front 2.

I'm not sure comparing 2 races from different days will give you a true indication of how horses compare and being 4secs slower than solness isn't something I'd personally use to blow Majboroughs trumpet.

There was a handicap chase over the same course and distance on the same day as the arkle which was slower by just over 2 seconds.
Majborough has carried 2lb less than mymatemozzie( 2nd by 7lengths) but he's probably finished 15 lengths clear of him when comparing the two races. My mate mozzie is a 148 rated chaser.
Make of that what you will.

[thorne365]

It's not often mentioned but Gino was getting 6lbs that day too, but i do think he had an awful lot left in the tank, he sauntered home after the last.

I think it's more a case of Maj's performance on Saturday not getting the recognition it should - he was 4s slower the Solness, but those 2 races the only 2 on the whole card that were faster than standard. His appearance of scruffy jumping, even though the IQ Data suggests he was gaining at every fence, probably makes that performance look a little less polished than it was.

They are far and away the best 2 mile novice chasers about and it should be a cracking battle.

The cross border form line through Touch Me Not shows L'Eau Du Sud is best of the rest but still a fair way off the front 2.

Just on the times - Ruby did say on ruk that the hurdles course was far slower than the chase course (due to being shared with the flat and a summer of watering apparently ) - probably not a good idea to make cross discipline comparisons even against par

[Quevega]

I'm not sure comparing 2 races from different days will give you a true indication of how horses compare and being 4secs slower than solness isn't something I'd personally use to blow Majboroughs trumpet.

There was a handicap chase over the same course and distance as the arkle which was slower by just over 2 seconds.
Majborough has carried 2lb less than mymatemozzie( 2nd by 7lengths) but he's probably finished 15 lengths clear of him when comparing the two races. My mate mozzie is a 148 rated chaser.
Make of that what you will.

I'd rate him 1lb a length better than My Mate Mozzie and put him on an offical mark of 162 in Ireland, and also raise My Mate Mozzie 2lb to 150 for his effort.

[AaronLad]

I'd rate him 1lb a length better than My Mate Mozzie and put him on an offical mark of 162 in Ireland, and also raise My Mate Mozzie 2lb to 150 for his effort.

Sounds about right to me Q
But hes got more.
not sure it'll be enough to get to gino.

Looks like he'll have one less challenger, no Gidleigh park in the kingmaker. Looks like kemptin on 22nd February, highly unlikely he'll be going to the arkle now. Shame

[Quevega]

Sounds about right to me Q
But hes got more.
not sure it'll be enough to get to gino.

Looks like he'll have one less challenger, no Gidleigh park in the kingmaker. Looks like kemptin on 22nd February, highly unlikely he'll be going to the arkle now. Shame

yeah, wondered why he was available at 150+ on exchange.
Added him to my team of "non runners", unless we get some defections, then I'm on some contenders at massive odds for pounds and pence.

[Quevega]

Sounds about right to me Q
But hes got more.
not sure it'll be enough to get to gino.

Looks like he'll have one less challenger, no Gidleigh park in the kingmaker. Looks like kemptin on 22nd February, highly unlikely he'll be going to the arkle now. Shame

It is right by the way, I forgot to add that's exactly what the Irish capper has done.

[riccirich]

Without looking a world beater?
Not sure it's his perfect trip either, that's ignoring the evidence of the race we've just seen

To answer, I think Sir Gino would've finished ahead of Majborough yesterday, and quite easily.

I also think Nico is just going to be better in the finish than Mark Walsh, if it came to that, and that Nico is just better for the Arkle and 2 mile chasers than Mark Walsh

For me, Majborough just makes the market. He's not a bad result for me by any stretch, but one of the matches I'm confident on



Without Sir Gino, Majborough would be as equally strong an opinion to win the Arkle.

He's beaten croke park by 5l? I think croke park is a good horse with solid form, but I dont think he's a top notcher, would be very surprised if better days ahead doesn't turn around the form of they're previous run in future. Impaire didn't seem himself so hard to take the distance to him literally, struggling to keep up with croke park at the halfway point doesn't seem like the best he's capable of.
It was the same trip as ballyburns turners win where he was flawless, so I'd say yesterday's trip was pretty ideal for him. Although sure it's possible he may improve over 3m, in which case sir gino beating him over 2m on a sharp track would be slightly less impressive again.

Hard to be conclusive, but i think majborough would have beaten ballyburn over 2m in pretty similar fashion to sir gino. Adding in other slight advantages that sir gino had, getting 6lb whereas majborough was only getting 2lb on Saturday, and kempton not being seen as stiff a track as leopardtown which was further against ballyburn, and I think the odds are a bit more in sir ginos favour than they should be.

[Quevega]

He's beaten croke park by 5l? I think croke park is a good horse with solid form, but I dont think he's a top notcher, would be very surprised if better days ahead doesn't turn around the form of they're previous run in future. Impaire didn't seem himself so hard to take the distance to him literally, struggling to keep up with croke park at the halfway point doesn't seem like the best he's capable of.
It was the same trip as ballyburns turners win where he was flawless, so I'd say yesterday's trip was pretty ideal for him. Although sure it's possible he may improve over 3m, in which case sir gino beating him over 2m on a sharp track would be slightly less impressive again.

Hard to be conclusive, but i think majborough would have beaten ballyburn over 2m in pretty similar fashion to sir gino. Adding in other slight advantages that sir gino had, getting 6lb whereas majborough was only getting 2lb on Saturday, and kempton not being seen as stiff a track as leopardtown which was further against ballyburn, and I think the odds are a bit more in sir ginos favour than they should be.

Definitely agree.
The prices are too far apart.
Typical with a Henderson chaser as they tend to be under priced (often proven right mind).
I'b be wary enough at even money each of 2 to side with Gino (but would)
But at the prices I'd be going heavy on Majborough for sure.
Already have both covered and laid Gino at 7/10.
They might even get further apart after the weekend if he beats them handicappers in an open grade 1.

If so then I think I'll have a good go on Majborough again, nearer the day.

[Kevloaf]

Yeah fair enough riccirich and Quevega - I see what you're saying...

I just disagree, I think if Sir Gino wins this weekend in open company it's absolutely miles clear of what Maj has done.... the price you're getting for 'hoping' Maj 'could or would have done the same' is exactly that, a leap of faith and for me in this circumstance I'd take the shorter price for the proven over the hope. Don't do that in every situation of course, hence me coming back to seeing what you dweebs are saying

It is still an if before he does it, but the extra experience, racing more established open company handicappers, and the jockey all give me massive confident that it's a 2 horse market, 1 horse race


What you should do is ask me if I'm that confident if I'll cash my Majborough bets

[Quevega]

Yeah fair enough riccirich and Quevega - I see what you're saying...

I just disagree, I think if Sir Gino wins this weekend in open company it's absolutely miles clear of what Maj has done.... the price you're getting for 'hoping' Maj 'could or would have done the same' is exactly that, a leap of faith and for me in this circumstance I'd take the shorter price for the proven over the hope. Don't do that in every situation of course, hence me coming back to seeing what you dweebs are saying

It is still an if before he does it, but the extra experience, racing more established open company handicappers, and the jockey all give me massive confident that it's a 2 horse market, 1 horse race


What you should do is ask me if I'm that confident if I'll cash my Majborough bets

I think your opinion is this anyway isn't it ? even Before he runs at the weekend.
Mine could definitely change/sway after the weekend.

But What has made you so confident in him before the weekend would be my question. It's that I don't get as on form there is very little between them, and both have excellent handlers etc.
Surely - right now, today, with everything we know. Majborough is the bet at the prices ?

Or is Posh Boy really moving prices that much ?

[Quevega]

I think in these close to call races it's foolish to take too strong a view (especially when finances are involved)

At 4/6 vs 9/4 I think I'd rather back myself to be right at around 33% of the time, than having to be right close to 60% of the time. Give or take one or two percentage points.

It's a given that opinions will differ on the respective chances on horses and the perceived value of course.
But IMO if you come across a position like this where there is no real substantive and objective evidence to say one is better than the other, it's better to go with the price. Again this will differ per individual.

[Kevloaf]

I think your opinion is this anyway isn't it ? even Before he runs at the weekend.
Mine could definitely change/sway after the weekend.

But What has made you so confident in him before the weekend would be my question. It's that I don't get as on form there is very little between them, and both have excellent handlers etc.
Surely - right now, today, with everything we know. Majborough is the bet at the prices ?

Or is Posh Boy really moving prices that much ?

Visual impression
'my' experience reading confidence around horses from the trainers
It's not an exact science
The 'gallop' with Con Hill

Just loads of the none form related bits

I think Sir Gino is going to be better than Jonbon
I don't think Majborough will be better than Jonbon


I have the right to change my mind if that's proven wrong of course, but that's my git feeling now and I would definitely back Sir Gino at the price now before Maj

In fact, I am incredible likely to take a WTAF for Sir Gino to increase stake on him, before I consider backing Majborough



Obviously it's the Arkle so got the book nicely in place but Sir Gino I want to extend the gap rather than level it off

[Kevloaf]

I think in these close to call races it's foolish to take too strong a view (especially when finances are involved)

At 4/6 vs 9/4 I think I'd rather back myself to be right at around 33% of the time, than having to be right close to 60% of the time. Give or take one or two percentage points.

It's a given that opinions will differ on the respective chances on horses and the perceived value of course.

and it's not foolish to take a strong view and back it
Otherwise everyone would try and build a 100% book beating SP .... at some point everyone takes a strong view, don't they?


I think I've seen enough




and I get them right more often than I don't

[Runragged]

Impaire En Passe has been beaten 4 times in his career, 3 at Leopardstown (The other a length behind Teahupoo in the Hattons Grace at Fairyhouse). We know Gaelic Warrior doesn't seem to act at the track as elsewhere, maybe it is the same for IEP? Certainly didn't seem happy and though several were inconvenienced by the ground on the chase course, he has form elsewhere on quicker to suggest it shouldn't of been a problem.

[ComplyOrDie]

Croke Park not certain to go to the BANC, Gordon has told Nick Luck.

Thinks he's a two and half mile horse not 3m.