2025 Novice Chasers

[jrjr]

Thought Dancing City did that very well today, hard not to see him in the mix coming up the hill in the BANC. Just wonder if something a bit ‘classier’ (possibly the wrong word) will just pip him.

I’d say that’s Dancing City and QDB booked their seats on the boat, and at least one of Ballyburn/Champ Kiely, possibly both. Of those two, I’d expect CK to perform solidly next weekend - appears to be a good jumper and dependable yardstick. Ballyburn could be more feast or famine over the longer distance. Gut feeling is he will be fine.

As an IEP fan, not sure where this leaves him. If he goes to Sandown and Ballyburn runs well then I fear he will miss out.

Obv pure speculation and I know it has been discussed at length on here before.

One thing I’m not sure about is the influence the double green have with Willie. Do they leave it to him or ‘suggest’ targets etc?

[Eggs]

Thought Dancing City did that very well today, hard not to see him in the mix coming up the hill in the BANC. Just wonder if something a bit ‘classier’ (possibly the wrong word) will just pip him.

I’d say that’s Dancing City and QDB booked their seats on the boat, and at least one of Ballyburn/Champ Kiely, possibly both. Of those two, I’d expect CK to perform solidly next weekend - appears to be a good jumper and dependable yardstick. Ballyburn could be more feast or famine over the longer distance. Gut feeling is he will be fine.

As an IEP fan, not sure where this leaves him. If he goes to Sandown and Ballyburn runs well then I fear he will miss out.

Obv pure speculation and I know it has been discussed at length on here before.

One thing I’m not sure about is the influence the double green have with Willie. Do they leave it to him or ‘suggest’ targets etc?

…Lecky Watson (10-1) is shorter in PP list than Champ Kiely (16-1) & QDB (25-1).

[Odin]

Paul will sit on the one he thinks is best, and whilst he doesn't get it right 100% of the time, if he's on Ballyburn, it'll be because Ballyburn has won at the DRF, it'll likely be the strongest bit of form

Be interesting to see if the percentage that Paul gets it right changes for novice chases now they have to go 2m or 3m and a lot more will face up against each other.

Have to agree with the second part - winning at DRF would be strongest piece of form (assuming Gordy sends at least one there), but with the loss of the turners and national hunt as graded races, there are likely to be a few different formlines coming in so it might not necessarily work out that Paul picking the best horse (potentially over a slightly shorter distance) proves the best on the day at Cheltenham over 3m I'd say

[somer1]

As it stands at the mo i would'nt throw fake money at Ballyburn for the BANC. Just got the feeling 1. Wont stay. 2 Cant jump a fence.3 we are all seeing things we want to see. So happy to be on Dancing City.

[Runragged]

As it stands at the mo i would'nt throw fake money at Ballyburn for the BANC. Just got the feeling 1. Wont stay. 2 Cant jump a fence.3 we are all seeing things we want to see. So happy to be on Dancing City.

I think he will just end up being a horse that bugs me. If we still had the 2 1/2m open novice he would of gone for that. Connections first instinct was to then drop him back to 2m at Kempton. That just doesn't sound like a horse you would be confident on in a 3m chase in what you imagine would be a decent test all being well with the main opposition. Assuming Impaire Et Passe doesn't turn up here then he is easily the classiest horse on hurdles form but just can't have a 3m BANC bringing out the best in him (If even needed...)

[SeanRock]

I think he will just end up being a horse that bugs me. If we still had the 2 1/2m open novice he would have gone for that. Connections first instinct was to then drop him back to 2m at Kempton. That just doesn't sound like a horse you would be confident on in a 3m chase in what you imagine would be a decent test all being well with the main opposition. Assuming Impaire Et Passe doesn't turn up here then he is easily the classiest horse on hurdles form but just can't have a 3m BANC bringing out the best in him (If even needed...)

Why are you assuming Impaire Et Passe won’t go, Anthony Bromley literally name dropped the race on Friday & with the Scilly Isles looking like his next outing it’s likely he’ll be going there unbeaten but untried at the trip.

There will be a mixture of types in the BANC field classier sorts that have versatility & tactical speed for the intermediate trip like IEP, Bally & The Jukebox Man

vs.

The dour stayers like Dancing City, Better Days Ahead & Quai De Bourbon


Obviously way the race is ran will have a huge impact on who fairs better. But then again if Ballyburn or Impaire settle in midfield they could cruise along & still do the dours for a turn of foot!

[Kevloaf]

As it stands at the mo i would'nt throw fake money at Ballyburn for the BANC. Just got the feeling 1. Wont stay. 2 Cant jump a fence.3 we are all seeing things we want to see. So happy to be on Dancing City.

1. Willie thinks his pedigree means he will stay
2. Come off it, he can't jump a fence? Just because Sir Gino was superb doesn't mean Ballyburn can't jump, he wasn't exactly tailed off
3. I assume most people want Dancing City to win .... Ballyburn never really been a price for this

Certainly a better result for me .... all of this chatter around Ballyburn and being negative is because people wanted him to win the Arkle, Champion Chase ... they've lost money already and are looking for reasons he's not as good as they thought

Last year he was being talked up SO much it was insane. Despite being beaten by Firefox he was talked up as an absolute good thing, would win wherever he went .... and he won the 'Turners' as he liked



Nonsense to write him off .... you wouldn't throw fake money at a festival winner? School boy approach IMO


hope you're well by the way haha

[Kevloaf]

Why are you assuming Impaire Et Passe won’t go, Anthony Bromley literally name dropped the race on Friday & with the Scilly Isles looking like his next outing it’s likely he’ll be going there unbeaten but untried at the trip.

There will be a mixture of types in the BANC field classier sorts that have versatility & tactical speed for the intermediate trip like IEP, Bally & The Jukebox Man

vs.

The dour stayers like Dancing City, Better Days Ahead & Quai De Bourbon


Obviously way the race is ran will have a huge impact on who fairs better. But then again if Ballyburn or Impaire settle in midfield they could cruise along & still do the dours for a turn of foot!

I think it's quite clear Willie doesn't want to run in protest about no longer having the G1 2m4f race ... no benefit to him, he'd clearly mop that up with Ballyburn and IEP .... and still have a great BANC and Arkle chance...


I hope the owners make sure he runs though, he'd clearly have the talent to have a say wherever he went

Sciliy Isles and Aintree is a bit, meh

[Kevloaf]

I'd say 5/1 for Dancing City is better than 7/2 Ballyburn at the moment. I may say differently next week even if Ballyburn is shorter. My main worry is the opposite to what they've done to Lossiemouth - they've tried to see if he's a 2 miler and got him to race with his keenness and now he's going to have to go up a mile in trip and race within himself. Possibly it won't matter over the shorter trip at the DRF.

FWIW I'm on Better Days Ahead and The Jukebox Man. Better Days Ahead I think we'll only see the best of him at Cheltenham. He may not be good enough but we'll see. The Jukebox Man was good on debut but keen. Settled much better at Kempton and so I wouldn't be worried about him settling at Cheltenham. I've read some thoughts that he may not be a sure stayer but the Albert Bartlett is a bigger test of stamina than the BANC.

This will be the most competitive grade 1 of the week though. I can see arguments for Impaire Et Passe, Croke Park, Jango etc QDB is a live outsider as well stepping up to 3m. Hard to be confident of one at 7/2 at this stage when you've got a fair few who are likely to be 160+ over fences.

The two you're on I do like as well

I actually really like The Jukebox Man but his price isn't one you'd take now relative to the others, he's likely to be bigger given the races to come

Lecky Watson wins it I love what he finds off the bridle.

I do kind of want Ballyburn to flop at the DRF, despite what I've just said to somer1 be better for my book for sureee!

[BuckingThe Trend]

The two you're on I do like as well

I actually really like The Jukebox Man but his price isn't one you'd take now relative to the others, he's likely to be bigger given the races to come

Lecky Watson wins it I love what he finds off the bridle.

I do kind of want Ballyburn to flop at the DRF, despite what I've just said to somer1 be better for my book for sureee!

Come on Kev. Any sensible punter knows Croke Park wins it.

[SeanRock]

I think it's quite clear Willie doesn't want to run in protest about no longer having the G1 2m4f race ... no benefit to him, he'd clearly mop that up with Ballyburn and IEP .... and still have a great BANC and Arkle chance...


I hope the owners make sure he runs though, he'd clearly have the talent to have a say wherever he went

Sciliy Isles and Aintree is a bit, meh

I’m convinced Willie is just firing warning shots over the Irish Sea in response to being utterly furious at the new festival structure.

You won’t get to see all these top class horses now with your stupid restructure.

Like the lad that takes his football home from heads & volleys because things aren’t going his way.

[SeanRock]

The two you're on I do like as well

I actually really like The Jukebox Man but his price isn't one you'd take now relative to the others, he's likely to be bigger given the races to come

Lecky Watson wins it I love what he finds off the bridle.

I do kind of want Ballyburn to flop at the DRF, despite what I've just said to somer1 be better for my book for sureee!

I’d have Lecky as Willies Fairyhouse/Aintree 2.4 miler now. It’s pointless trying to settle him to see out 3m. The intermediate trip is perfect to just let him buck out attack his races like he wants to.

[nortonscoin200]

3. I assume most people want Dancing City to win .... Ballyburn never really been a price for this

PP had Ballyburn at 33-1 for this year's BA the day before he won the Gallagher at long odds on.

But I agree with you that there's every chance Lecky Watson grinds them all into submission just like Cliff Thorburn did at the Crucible in 1980

[Kevloaf]

Come on Kev. Any sensible punter knows Croke Park wins it.

On at 100/1 so I hope so

[Kevloaf]

PP had Ballyburn at 33-1 for this year's BA the day before he won the Gallagher at long odds on.

But I agree with you that there's every chance Lecky Watson grinds them all into submission just like Cliff Thorburn did at the Crucible in 1980

Did they! I'd have taken that if I 'd have seen - so easy to miss during the week!

Well fair play to whoever is on that.... I doubt many are or they'd be on here banging the drum about how much of a cert he is haha