2025 Novice Chasers

[Carnage at Taunton]

The NH chase and X country were very useful "knowing" races. The nostalgia of some successes in those races will rise high in our memories. But this is kind of a false memory, the brain fooling itself into remembering the successes, which is common and almost a necessity when gambling as a pastime.

You have to weigh the positive memories against all the bullets sprayed over the years on the 4 novice chases in particular. Not one person will have successfully negotiated that problem on a regular basis in recent years and even when landing on winners, we'll all have used up plenty of ammo and time faffing about, along the way.

This should reduce now, unless you're backing any old shit.

Like the people saying that the arkle is lacking many decent 2 milers this season who only 5 weeks ago were saying that it;s going to be a really brilliant arkle and there's 2 milers coming out of their arses - You know who you are

It did look like it might be a good one then though.
But since then SG and Maj have blown it apart, particularly SG. Now it will probably be a small field again with what were potential runners going elsewhere. Unless trainers decide to take them on.
But that can happen anyway whatever the race planning was,when outstanding ones appear.

[Quevega]

It did look like it might be a good one then though.
But since then SG and Maj have blown it apart, particularly SG. Now it will probably be a small field again with what were potential runners going elsewhere. Unless trainers decide to take them on.
But that can happen anyway whatever the race planning was,when outstanding ones appear.

It wasn't a dig at changing opinions. That's normal behaviour.
It was more a dig at people thinking every beginners chase winner is the next big thing, and worthy of a bet.
They always thin out, especially if extremely talented horses emerge.
And thinking the ones that turn out not to be so good, simply need further to become better. Rather than thinking they're just not as good as the best in class that year.

To put it simply, what price would Sir Gino be if the Turners was still a grade 1 and it was named as his target ??

Big field arkles are normally a bunch of handicappers chancing their arm.

[Istabraq]

To add to the earlier reply, one obvious point is that antepost betting is not time restricted.
You can bet antepost 3 days away from the race, it doesn't have to be months before.
In fact you'll probably more successful nearer the time, as more information is available.

This is almost certainly likely to be true, but we've seen it here countless times, as soon as horse (particularly a novice) gets an entry people try getting ahead and force the price down.
Penty of people in here have the advantage of cashout so when when said novice turns out to be no good you press a button and get your money back, it's kind of like having endless free bets.
Of course every now and then the noise is right and the price of a horse that probably halved leading up to his/her debut will contract further.
Look at what's happened to this Hendo Triumph thing this week.
What was the name of that Group 1 flat winner that was sent to Hendo and got backed into Triumph fav only to find out he'll stick to the flat for a year.
Basically, it's punters who fuck the market and I've felt for some years now that if cashout didn't exist people would fire less darts and prices would hold more...

[Quevega]

This is almost certainly likely to be true, but we've seen it here countless times, as soon as horse (particularly a novice) gets an entry people try getting ahead and force the price down.
Penty of people in here have the advantage of cashout so when when said novice turns out to be no good you press a button and get your money back, it's kind of like having endless free bets.
Of course every now and them the noise is right and the price of a horse that probably halved leading up to his/her debut will contract further.
Look at what's happened to this Hendo Triumph thing this week.
What was the name of that Group 1 flat winner that was sent to Hendo and got backed into Triumph fav only to find out he'll stick to the flat for a year.
Basically, it's punters who fuck the market and I've felt for some years now that if cashout didn't exist people would fire less darts and prices would hold more...

Cashout is over rated these days.
If you have the option with PP or B365.
B365 are quick to reprice and grey out and it's rare you can get out with all your money back these days.
Personally with PP I can never get money back, it is always smaller than stake even if price has crashed (I understand that this is likely due to restrictions on me personally)
Definitely better than nothing though.

But I wouldn't describe it as having endless free bets these days.
Which as a shop dweller should make you feel a bit better.

[Istabraq]

Cashout is over rated these days.

But I wouldn't describe it as having endless free bets these days.

It may not be quite where it was a few years but it is still a benefit, as you said.
I've never book built but I know those in here who adopt that strategy often have 10+ horses in a race, if cashout has become less valuable/available I would have thought the book builders have adjusted their approach and no long fire as many darts ?
It may take a few years of losses/reduced profits to realise this perhaps...

[Run4Home]

Fair play. Probably won't ride in every race then will he... Wonder how he'll use them.

Doesn't make the Kim Muir shout any worse mind. Might even make it better actually

The 21 rides only applies to Irish rides, he has no limit in England. (Fairly sure on that..)

[That Horse]

Basically, it's punters who fuck the market and I've felt for some years now that if cashout didn't exist people would fire less darts and prices would hold more...

Quevega's post on big field arkles prompted me to go and look to see if I could find one as I don't remember ever seeing one in the last 15 odd years I've been into racing.

I couldn't find one looking at the last 10 years of RP data but did notice that Sir Gino's current arkle price is the same as Sprinter Sacre's SP when he won it.

[Carnage at Taunton]

It wasn't a dig at changing opinions. That's normal behaviour.
It was more a dig at people thinking every beginners chase winner is the next big thing, and worthy of a bet.
They always thin out, especially if extremely talented horses emerge.
And thinking the ones that turn out not to be so good, simply need further to become better. Rather than thinking they're just not as good as the best in class that year.

To put it simply, what price would Sir Gino be if the Turners was still a grade 1 and it was named as his target ??

Big field arkles are normally a bunch of handicappers chancing their arm.

Yeah, I don’t really think the Arkle will ever have a field of say half a dozen top contenders , in fact what graded race actually does?
I can’t think of too many.
It’s very rare to have a wide open market come March in the graded races and quite often antepost as well.

It don’t help when the real good graded horses stem from a small selection of stables,resulting in lack of competition and the search for alternative races to win more races,but that’s something else and not much anyone can do about that.

Sir Gino in the former Turners, rather short!!

[Quevega]

Quevega's post on big field arkles prompted me to go and look to see if I could find one as I don't remember ever seeing one in the last 15 odd years I've been into racing.

I couldn't find one looking at the last 10 years of RP data but did notice that Sir Gino's current arkle price is the same as Sprinter Sacre's SP when he won it.

Depends what you call big.
Relatively, for an arkle I'd say owt above 8 personally

I had in mind Duc Des Genievres and Edwardstone's arkle when I wrote that.
Both had 10 plus runners.

Think the favs were 5/2 and 10/3.
Vast majority of other renewals would have had even 6/4 or shorter priced favs which would have scared the handicappers off.

[Big Bucks]

One thing I do know….. the turners was a race I enjoyed watching.
Not sure I can say the same about many rsa/banc races over the years.
I would rather have got rid of that race if I thought one had to go.

In what way? Not to say you are right or wrong obviously as opinions can differ, but just that I would be the opposite and enjoyed watching the RSA more over the years, I can recall more of them in a way they had an exciting/memorable race (finish) which I can still play back in my mind. Although probably looking back at the Turners winners i had a good record punting in the race, surprisingly the RSA still imo the better of them to watch. I definitely would have kept the Turners as it was but I think that's from a betting perspective rather than a productive one to the system. I can see why they did what they did, but points alot of you guys have discussed are very valid and don't see it going the way they had planned, but they will probably argue it will take time.

[Ice]

Might bite vs whisper is the race i think off when thinking rsa/banc, absolutely loved it !

[Quevega]

Might bite vs whisper is the race i think off when thinking rsa/banc, absolutely loved it !

Watched that on you tube the other day.
Fucking mad.
Horse and race both.

[Ice]

Watched that on you tube the other day.
Fucking mad.
Horse and race both.

As i typed the lat post i thought finish this and go watch it again on YouTube, i still don't think might bite is gonna get back up and I've seen about twelve times !

[Carnage at Taunton]

In what way? Not to say you are right or wrong obviously as opinions can differ, but just that I would be the opposite and enjoyed watching the RSA more over the years, I can recall more of them in a way they had an exciting/memorable race (finish) which I can still play back in my mind. Although probably looking back at the Turners winners i had a good record punting in the race, surprisingly the RSA still imo the better of them to watch. I definitely would have kept the Turners as it was but I think that's from a betting perspective rather than a productive one to the system. I can see why they did what they did, but points alot of you guys have discussed are very valid and don't see it going the way they had planned, but they will probably argue it will take time.

Same way I enjoy watching the Ryanair, that mixture of speed with a bit of stamina I guess.
I’m probably in a minority but I really like the mid distance races as opposed to the 3m races, quicker jumping and more exciting imo.
I was at Ascot when imo Kauto Star put in his best wow performance over the mid distance, but that’s controversial I know!! Considering his performances at Chelt and Kempton.
Same year he got done by Denman in the Gold Cup. I often wondered if that Ascot performance hindered his Gold Cup chances. It was something special.

[DenmanSacre]

I never minded the Turners. We had some superstars in it like Vautour but a lot of the years it was quite competitive or a short odds Irish horse losing.

We had the drama of GDC falling at the last and a few on here cheering on whoever it was that finished 2nd after backing them days before under antepost rules at stupid odds.

Samcro Vs Melon Vs Faugheen was a great race.

Mighty Potter Vs Appreciate It and Stage Star bossing them from the front.

Last year was decent with the Nicholls Vs Skelton race and Facile Vega bombing out.

I do think though that making it a handicap won't do it any harm. Willie can cry all he wants but most years he just threw in whoever failed over shorter and further. He very rarely targeted one of his best at the race and he's only moaning this year because it would have suited two of his best. If it would have been removed last year, you wouldn't have heard much dissent from him.

Most winners of it have ended up being disappointing in open company so it wasn't really much of a grade 1 when looking at future prospects.