2025 Novice Chasers

[riccirich]

Don't personally feel there was much need for the novice chase changes to be so drastic, don't think changing two graded races to two handicaps is a positive change for what's supposed to be the Olympics.

I would have like three grade ones to remain, with just one novice chase becoming a handicap, and with some alterations to the three grade ones. The brown advisory trip being raised to 3m 2f, and possibly moved to the thursday/Friday course, so it's literally the novice gold cup. The arkle remains as it is,and the turners novice chase trip raised slightly to 2m 5f. That way I think it makes each race more unique of a test and a bit less interchangeable.

If that was the way the races were last year, I think the field sizes would have been fine. would have been something like....

BANC - last years NH chase field + the plodders from the banc (stay away fay, montys star, giovinco possibly)
Turners - same as last years lineup with probably fact to file and American Mike added in
Arkle - same as it was really

[Quevega]

Ye I’d be thinking along the same lines regarding Dancing City not showing up, good chance G3 at Naas could be his next target, they’d have have a bit more time to freshen him up for Cheltenham after that.

Yeah, I was probably thinking of that rather than the ten up, always get naas and navan mixed up.

[Chelterskelter]

I like those suggestions riccirich. Not sure what value a 4 mile (3m 6f) novice handicap really adds now, especially when you take away the element of tradition by changing the riders to professionals. Also, it steps on the toes of the Kim Muir and Irish National, probably other races too if I had longer to think about it.

It will be interesting to see what turns up in the longer race this year. i'm finding the scope to punt antepost to be limited this year, not just the usual poor value etc.. but The trainers still have plenty of options and pinpointing targets, to me, feels as hard as before, if not harder.

[Carnage at Taunton]

One thing I do know….. the turners was a race I enjoyed watching.
Not sure I can say the same about many rsa/banc races over the years.
I would rather have got rid of that race if I thought one had to go.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Don't personally feel there was much need for the novice chase changes to be so drastic, don't think changing two graded races to two handicaps is a positive change for what's supposed to be the Olympics.

I would have like three grade ones to remain, with just one novice chase becoming a handicap, and with some alterations to the three grade ones. The brown advisory trip being raised to 3m 2f, and possibly moved to the thursday/Friday course, so it's literally the novice gold cup. The arkle remains as it is,and the turners novice chase trip raised slightly to 2m 5f. That way I think it makes each race more unique of a test and a bit less interchangeable.

If that was the way the races were last year, I think the field sizes would have been fine. would have been something like....

BANC - last years NH chase field + the plodders from the banc (stay away fay, montys star, giovinco possibly)
Turners - same as last years lineup with probably fact to file and American Mike added in
Arkle - same as it was really

Actually quiet like that, change the BANC to longer, get rid of the NHC as it stands, and get the Turners back.
Yep, that’s ok imo.

[Runragged]

Why ?
It's a 0-145.

Exactly, that would rule out three of the seven runners last year from the race (All three Irish horses to compete) who I assume would therefore go/gone BANC. Year before, 4 of the 10 runners would have been ineligible whilst there is then the question of whether trainers would want their horse to carry top weight conceding pounds to the other runners. Limiting the race to one that is very similar to another handicap already at the Festival, one which has a very good record with novices, seems an odd move.

[Quevega]

Worth remembering that the 2m 4f Novice chase race is still there.
It might not be a grade 1, but better IMO because it gives all horses a chance and no odds on shots. The same will apply with the NH chase.

Not sure why it matters to punters that they are handicaps now.
The spectacle - and as a betting event it should be better on average most years.

People quickly forgetting the trauma of having four graded races for horses to target.

A graded level staying horse had 3 options before, now they have one. The pacier horses had the option of 2., now one.

[Quevega]

Exactly, that would rule out three of the seven runners last year from the race (All three Irish horses to compete) who I assume would therefore go/gone BANC. Year before, 4 of the 10 runners would have been ineligible whilst there is then the question of whether trainers would want their horse to carry top weight conceding pounds to the other runners. Limiting the race to one that is very similar to another handicap already at the Festival, one which has a very good record with novices, seems an odd move.

Gotcha, I thought you meant it would reduce the field in the RSA not the other way.
We'll have to wait and see what the entries are like for this years NH chase but if you're suggesting the numbers might be low, then I'd say it's likely opposite as many smaller yards will be encouraged that its a handicap and they have a chance vs previously when they had no chance against Gold cup horses from Ireland off level weights.
The top weight argument is irrelevant as that would be the same issue for them in the Muir anyhow.

The clash with the Kim Muir should be alleviated a little with the amount of runs novices need to run in that, being one more.
Also less "fancy" obvious novices in the open handicaps may encourage other trainers of older horses to have a go.

But I agree that both new handicaps are likely to have an effect on number of runners in the other open handicaps for sure.

However, this mainly due to the UK having no fucking horses anyhow. And there being too many races in general, including at the festival.
They should have fucked the Kim Muir off.

Maybe that might be the next raft of changes, along with tinkering with the mares races, and limiting number of runners in the handicap hurdles to 16/18, and making the pipe for novices only.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Be interesting to see how many runners and how competitive the races will be this year.
I think the Arkle will be small amount as usual.
Not that many good 2milers around imo.
Seem to be more that probably want further to enhance their chances.
Might get more in the BANC possibly, if trainers go for it with horses they ain’t sure will benefit from such a race as novices.
Way it’s going though it seems those sorts may run elsewhere.

[riccirich]

Worth remembering that the 2m 4f Novice chase race is still there.
It might not be a grade 1, but better IMO because it gives all horses a chance and no odds on shots. The same will apply with the NH chase.

Not sure why it matters to punters that they are handicaps now.
The spectacle - and as a betting event it should be better on average most years.

People quickly forgetting the trauma of having four graded races for horses to target.

A graded level staying horse had 3 options before, now they have one. The pacier horses had the option of 2., now one.

I think it matters to punters in terms of ante post, as when I look through the betting for the novice handicap and the nh chase right now, I couldnt pick out a single horse that I'd be confident will actually run in either race. Theyve always been hard to predict of course but its definitely harder now, Coupled with the fact that the plate and grand annual are worth more with only one more run needed for both. So in terms of ante post, those two races are near write offs now imo.

Nearer to the the time though I accept they will probably be far better from a betting perspective than they were for punters who just have a bet on the day and dont bother antepost. Which I'm happy about in one way because its a bit more exciting, but at the same time a bit unhappy that the days of waiting on gaillard du mesnil and stattler to beat small fields as fave for winning 16/1 slips are gone

[Runragged]

Gotcha, I thought you meant it would reduce the field in the RSA not the other way.
We'll have to wait and see what the entries are like for this years NH chase but if you're suggesting the numbers might be low, then I'd say it's likely opposite as many smaller yards will be encouraged that its a handicap and they have a chance vs previously when they had no chance against Gold cup horses from Ireland off level weights.
The top weight argument is irrelevant as that would be the same issue for them in the Muir anyhow.

The clash with the Kim Muir should be alleviated a little with the amount of runs novices need to run in that, being one more.
Also less "fancy" obvious novices in the open handicaps may encourage other trainers of older horses to have a go.

But I agree that both new handicaps are likely to have an effect on number of runners in the other open handicaps for sure.

However, this mainly due to the UK having no fucking horses anyhow. And there being too many races in general, including at the festival.
They should have fucked the Kim Muir off.

Maybe that might be the next raft of changes, along with tinkering with the mares races, and limiting number of runners in the handicap hurdles to 16/18, and making the pipe for novices only.

Hard to say for the NH Chase this year as the gap between the NH Chase and Irish National is decent so could potentially run in both. However, you go back to an early Easter and I think entries will be considerably low. Maybe more of a spectacle but then I expect the standard of both this and the Kim Muir will drop in quality.

Considering the Festival is the pinnacle of the sport then I would of dropped the novice element of the race and made it an open 4m race for amateur riders. There are very few marathon races (If any) that are not a handicap so why not let the best marathon horses compete off level weights to see who the best is. Either that, or keep the Cross Country as an open race. We already have two cross country handicaps in November and December so why not crown the best Cross Country horse at the Festival? Instead the early ones will be used by trainers to get their horses lower in the handicap ready for the Festival (Or higher if they are a long way out of the handicap).

[Quevega]

I think it matters to punters in terms of ante post, as when I look through the betting for the novice handicap and the nh chase right now, I couldnt pick out a single horse that I'd be confident will actually run in either race. Theyve always been hard to predict of course but its definitely harder now, Coupled with the fact that the plate and grand annual are worth more with only one more run needed for both. So in terms of ante post, those two races are near write offs now imo.

Nearer to the the time though I accept they will probably be far better from a betting perspective than they were for punters who just have a bet on the day and dont bother antepost. Which I'm happy about in one way because its a bit more exciting, but at the same time a bit unhappy that the days of waiting on gaillard du mesnil and stattler to beat small fields as fave for winning 16/1 slips are gone

The NH chase and X country were very useful "knowing" races. The nostalgia of some successes in those races will rise high in our memories. But this is kind of a false memory, the brain fooling itself into remembering the successes, which is common and almost a necessity when gambling as a pastime.

You have to weigh the positive memories against all the bullets sprayed over the years on the 4 novice chases in particular. Not one person will have successfully negotiated that problem on a regular basis in recent years and even when landing on winners, we'll all have used up plenty of ammo and time faffing about, along the way.

This should reduce now, unless you're backing any old shit.

Like the people saying that the arkle is lacking many decent 2 milers this season who only 5 weeks ago were saying that it;s going to be a really brilliant arkle and there's 2 milers coming out of their arses - You know who you are

[Benjy23]

21 for a Category C license in Ireland, which is what Patrick holds.

Fair play. Probably won't ride in every race then will he... Wonder how he'll use them.

Doesn't make the Kim Muir shout any worse mind. Might even make it better actually

[Quevega]

Hard to say for the NH Chase this year as the gap between the NH Chase and Irish National is decent so could potentially run in both. However, you go back to an early Easter and I think entries will be considerably low. Maybe more of a spectacle but then I expect the standard of both this and the Kim Muir will drop in quality.

Considering the Festival is the pinnacle of the sport then I would of dropped the novice element of the race and made it an open 4m race for amateur riders. There are very few marathon races (If any) that are not a handicap so why not let the best marathon horses compete off level weights to see who the best is. Either that, or keep the Cross Country as an open race. We already have two cross country handicaps in November and December so why not crown the best Cross Country horse at the Festival? Instead the early ones will be used by trainers to get their horses lower in the handicap ready for the Festival (Or higher if they are a long way out of the handicap).

Not having a go at you ragged - But fuck the Irish National.

None of the UK horses fucking bother with it anyhow so why should that be any issue at all.
All it impacts is the Irish Handicappers, and as antepost punters we have to navigate that as best as we can. Being wary that a horse may have another target is basic stuff for punters.

And with NRNB usually available before handicap markets are fully formed, What does it really matter ?

The idea of making it an open 4m race off levels is interesting.
Although I personally like the current plan and think this will provide opportunities for smaller stables to get a festival winner in both the NH chase and X country., they just need to shelve the Kim Muir, for a veterans (amateurs) or preferably nothing at all.

Best case scenario this year is the Muir is lacking numbers.

Which is much more likely, as the smaller yards that might have wanted a go in the past would have struggled to get a jockey they'd be happy with.

At least for novices they can use their own jockey in the new NH chase. It must take a great deal of trust to let probably the best horse in your small yard be ridden by an inexperienced amateur. And equally hard to jock off the regular jockey who has helped get the horse to this level anyway.
And for non novices they can go Ultima, if high enough.

[Quevega]

I think it matters to punters in terms of ante post, as when I look through the betting for the novice handicap and the nh chase right now, I couldnt pick out a single horse that I'd be confident will actually run in either race. Theyve always been hard to predict of course but its definitely harder now, Coupled with the fact that the plate and grand annual are worth more with only one more run needed for both. So in terms of ante post, those two races are near write offs now imo.

Nearer to the the time though I accept they will probably be far better from a betting perspective than they were for punters who just have a bet on the day and dont bother antepost. Which I'm happy about in one way because its a bit more exciting, but at the same time a bit unhappy that the days of waiting on gaillard du mesnil and stattler to beat small fields as fave for winning 16/1 slips are gone

To add to the earlier reply, one obvious point is that antepost betting is not time restricted.
You can bet antepost 3 days away from the race, it doesn't have to be months before.
In fact you'll probably more successful nearer the time, as more information is available.