2025 Novice Chasers

[Carnage at Taunton]

Maybe never happen of course

Just saying, judge when we actually see him jump fences.
If he never does it won’t really matter.
Bloody unlikely though!!

[Lobos]

Just saying, judge when we actually see him jump fences.
If he never does it won’t really matter.
Bloody unlikely though!!

I'm not so sure. If CH blows out and State Man gets beat again then he could end up Nicky and Donnelly's number 1 Hurdler. That's why I don't believe he'll jump a fence until we know more. Be stupid not to wait. Nicky won't be without a CH horse.

[Lobos]

Jack Keane in the Sun reported on Thursday evening that Sir Gino had pleased connections when schooling over fences and was pencilled in for the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at the same meeting where he could face a mouthwatering clash with Ballyburn.

[Lobos]

Seen Ruby Walsh on the Rosd To Cheltenham Suggesting Impaire Et Passe might go to the Faugheen Novice over 2M 3 Rather than the long Distance Novice chase over 3M
Any thoughts as I thought he would have been Stepped up to avoid Possibly running against Ballyburn

Looks like Ruby was right from the betting today. PP shortened him right up.

365 are still 4/1

[Carnage at Taunton]

Ruby very confident of Majborough going Arkle, and I’m not at all surprised.
Think they already know he’s their best 2m novice.
Only have to watch him and Ballyburn race to see who the 2miler is.
Be interesting to see what they do with Ballyburn.
Maybe give him another chance to show he’s quick enough, or needs stepping up.

[DenmanSacre]

Not sure how anyone can be so confident who is the best 2m chaser - Willie doesn't even know who his best is yet and he'll let them sort it out on the track.

They've all had one run. We regularly see horses jump well first time up and then after that, their jumping regresses.

Johnnywho jumped brilliantly first time up, jumped not as well last time and was bad yesterday.

Marine Nationale jumped immaculately in his beginners and people on here were making him a cert for the Arkle and a contender for the QMCC. Didn't jump well the next 2 times.

Down Memory Lane jumped well on debut - at Sandown, it was like he'd never seen a fence before.

Majborough has to step up to get to Ballyburns level, not the other way round. At the moment, he's beat Kargese less convincingly than Sir Gino did and beat Tullyhill, who was well beat at Cheltenham and Punchestown.

Both Majborough and Ballyburn were given an easy time of it in front and we need to see how they cope when upped in grade over fences and either have to take a lead, get taken on or need to go a stride quicker. Not sure where they both go next but hopefully they pass the test and face off in the Irish Arkle or at Cheltenham with Sir Gino and we get a proper competitive race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Not sure how anyone can be so confident who is the best 2m chaser - Willie doesn't even know who his best is yet and he'll let them sort it out on the track.

They've all had one run. We regularly see horses jump well first time up and then after that, their jumping regresses.

Johnnywho jumped brilliantly first time up, jumped not as well last time and was bad yesterday.

Marine Nationale jumped immaculately in his beginners and people on here were making him a cert for the Arkle and a contender for the QMCC. Didn't jump well the next 2 times.

Down Memory Lane jumped well on debut - at Sandown, it was like he'd never seen a fence before.

Majborough has to step up to get to Ballyburns level, not the other way round. At the moment, he's beat Kargese less convincingly than Sir Gino did and beat Tullyhill, who was well beat at Cheltenham and Punchestown.

Both Majborough and Ballyburn were given an easy time of it in front and we need to see how they cope when upped in grade over fences and either have to take a lead, get taken on or need to go a stride quicker. Not sure where they both go next but hopefully they pass the test and face off in the Irish Arkle or at Cheltenham with Sir Gino and we get a proper competitive race.

You make fair points.
And I do say novices deserve another chase before judging completely.
But in this case I’m not so sure we need to.
Just watching both horses it just seems so clear the way they run and jump that Maj is a much more natural 2 miler and Bally is a stayer.
Still no doubt I will be proved right or wrong at some point soon.

[Rooster Booster]

Not sure how anyone can be so confident who is the best 2m chaser - Willie doesn't even know who his best is yet and he'll let them sort it out on the track.

They've all had one run. We regularly see horses jump well first time up and then after that, their jumping regresses.

Johnnywho jumped brilliantly first time up, jumped not as well last time and was bad yesterday.

Marine Nationale jumped immaculately in his beginners and people on here were making him a cert for the Arkle and a contender for the QMCC. Didn't jump well the next 2 times.

Down Memory Lane jumped well on debut - at Sandown, it was like he'd never seen a fence before.

Majborough has to step up to get to Ballyburns level, not the other way round. At the moment, he's beat Kargese less convincingly than Sir Gino did and beat Tullyhill, who was well beat at Cheltenham and Punchestown.

Both Majborough and Ballyburn were given an easy time of it in front and we need to see how they cope when upped in grade over fences and either have to take a lead, get taken on or need to go a stride quicker. Not sure where they both go next but hopefully they pass the test and face off in the Irish Arkle or at Cheltenham with Sir Gino and we get a proper competitive race.

Ballyburn received an rpr of 150 on chase debut as a 6yo ex point to pointer having his 8th start under rules. Majborough received an rpr of 151 on chase debut as a 4 yo on only his 4th ever run under rules. Majborough rprs are on a clear upward trajectory, Ballyburns have gone in the opposite direction. Also people are understandably questioning whether last years novice hurdlers were overrated and whether last years juveniles were possibly underrated based upon subsequent evidence in both spheres. I’m not as convinced as you are that Majborough has all that much stepping up to do, certainly not over 2 miles anyhow. Add to that the fact that Majborough debut was more pleasing on the eye and was over the Atkle trip I can understand why folks are seeing Majborough as a more likely candidate for the Arkle as things stand.

Of course you are absolutely correct to point out that these are initial data points and things can and very often do change from race to race. But if you put a gun to my head I would say without much hesitation that Ballyburn looks more like a staying chaser than a two mile chaser and the change we need to see from him is significant compared to Majborough. Also it’s worth noting that Ballyburn is half the price of Majborough with some firms so he is priced up already more to your thinking (in terms of last seasons juveniles needing to step up) than mine. I think this is another reason why Majborough and potentially Sir Gino are getting so much attention.

[darlojim]

Ballyburn received an rpr of 150 on chase debut as a 6yo ex point to pointer having his 8th start under rules. Majborough received an rpr of 151 on chase debut as a 4 yo on only his 4th ever run under rules. Majborough rprs are on a clear upward trajectory, Ballyburns have gone in the opposite direction. Also people are understandably questioning whether last years novice hurdlers were overrated and whether last years juveniles were possibly underrated based upon subsequent evidence in both spheres. I’m not as convinced as you are that Majborough has all that much stepping up to do, certainly not over 2 miles anyhow. Add to that the fact that Majborough debut was more pleasing on the eye and was over the Atkle trip I can understand why folks are seeing Majborough as a more likely candidate for the Arkle as things stand.

Cracking case made that Exactly how I see it.

[DenmanSacre]

Ballyburn received an rpr of 150 on chase debut as a 6yo ex point to pointer having his 8th start under rules. Majborough received an rpr of 151 on chase debut as a 4 yo on only his 4th ever run under rules. Majborough rprs are on a clear upward trajectory, Ballyburns have gone in the opposite direction. Also people are understandably questioning whether last years novice hurdlers were overrated and whether last years juveniles were possibly underrated based upon subsequent evidence in both spheres. I’m not as convinced as you are that Majborough has all that much stepping up to do, certainly not over 2 miles anyhow. Add to that the fact that Majborough debut was more pleasing on the eye and was over the Atkle trip I can understand why folks are seeing Majborough as a more likely candidate for the Arkle as things stand.

Of course you are absolutely correct to point out that these are initial data points and things can and very often do change from race to race. But if you put a gun to my head I would say without much hesitation that Ballyburn looks more like a staying chaser than a two mile chaser and the change we need to see from him is significant compared to Majborough. Also it’s worth noting that Ballyburn is half the price of Majborough with some firms so he is priced up already more to your thinking (in terms of last seasons juveniles needing to step up) than mine. I think this is another reason why Majborough and potentially Sir Gino are getting so much attention.

I think RPRs for beginners chases and maiden hurdles aren't worth anything tbh. I'll take notice of the RPR when they step up to graded races.

TS is more worthwhile for those races IMO (although you still have to be careful with those as they'll use the official times which can be nonsense at times) - Ballyburn got a TS of 122 (157 over hurdles) and Majborough 114 (137 over hurdles). Both not great but at least gives a hint at the pace of the race. Majborough beat Tullyhill, who frankly is shit, and Asian Master, who I don't like either. Ballyburn beat a load of rubbish as well, but the only one who tried to go with him fell into a hole late on and he had a RPR of 144 over hurdles.

At the moment, they've both won beginners chases. Let's see how they get on next time.

[Rooster Booster]

I think RPRs for beginners chases and maiden hurdles aren't worth anything tbh. I'll take notice of the RPR when they step up to graded races.

TS is more worthwhile for those races IMO (although you still have to be careful with those as they'll use the official times which can be nonsense at times) - Ballyburn got a TS of 122 (157 over hurdles) and Majborough 114 (137 over hurdles). Both not great but at least gives a hint at the pace of the race. Majborough beat Tullyhill, who frankly is shit, and Asian Master, who I don't like either. Ballyburn beat a load of rubbish as well, but the only one who tried to go with him fell into a hole late on and he had a RPR of 144 over hurdles.

At the moment, they've both won beginners chases. Let's see how they get on next time.

Yep will be fascinating, though of course each new data point comes with a price (literally)

[Lobos]

Ruby very confident of Majborough going Arkle, and I’m not at all surprised.
Think they already know he’s their best 2m novice.
Only have to watch him and Ballyburn race to see who the 2miler is.
Be interesting to see what they do with Ballyburn.
Maybe give him another chance to show he’s quick enough, or needs stepping up.

Yes, he thought his debut was the tops didn't he.

He was very convinced that Impaire Et Passe wouldnt go 3m at Leopardstown as he said Willie just doesn't do that with a horse that has never gone that trip before. Sounds like Ballyburn will go Wayward Lad so IEP can just slot into Faugheen Chase with either High class Hero or QDB or both going the long distance chase.

Makes sense.

[Rooster Booster]

Cracking case made that Exactly how I see it.

Thanks Jim ….hope we aren’t both eating humble pie anytime soon

[Lobos]

365 have cut IEP to 3/1 for Faugheen Chase and pushed Ballyburn out to 4/5

IEP also pushed out by everyone for the long distance chase with Croke Park the one going the other way.

[darlojim]

365 have cut IEP to 3/1 for Faugheen Chase and pushed Ballyburn out to 4/5

IEP also pushed out by everyone for the long distance chase with Croke Park the one going the other way.

Gordon said Croke Park was going Limerick - BDA was the one going for Leopardstown