2025 Novice Chasers

[Quevega]

Back to ratings again but isn't meh a bit harsh when ITP has the highest debut RPR of all the Arkle contenders?

Not being rude to you.
But Fuck RPR's. (especially in beginner chases)

[Imperial Commander]

Not being rude to you.
But Fuck RPR's. (especially in beginner chases)

Ha ha, each to their own method obv.

I like ITP though so to put it another way, isn't a 15 length defeat of Farren Glory in a canter quite encouraging?

[Quevega]

Ha ha, each to their own method obv.

I like ITP though so to put it another way, isn't a 15 length defeat of Farren Glory in a canter quite encouraging?

encouraging yes, given he spent a few months injured.

But also - 100% definitely not the best debut over fences this season, for a horse having it's second beginners chase (so wanting to tick that box asap) at "Wexford" with 2 fences omitted against one serious rival making it's first start (Farren Glory) and is pretty much already earmarked for handicaps in Spring.
He was clearly fit and well and did what was expected in a taking manner.

Quite obviously I could be wrong, and prices drive my decision making so he's never been a price I've been interested in.

Down Memory Lane looked real good on debut but look what happened when he stepped into graded races.
He got 148 rpr in a much better and more competitive beginners race then was considered to have ran to the same level when getting well beaten by horses that look short of arkle level at Sandown.

[Craigy14]

Have to agree with Q about Inthepocket, his form ain’t great.

Even his 2m novice Grade 1 hurdle win, beating strong leader a length or 2 who’s obviously been running over trips far too short as a hurdler.

Facile Vega did nothing for the beginners chase form albeit if you want to say ITP was tenderly handled that day.

Hes 7 going 8 as well which isn’t ideal for me, rather a younger horse over 2m as a
novice chaser. He was out for a season as well so will he retain whatever potential ability he does have when upped in grade and as Q also says his price has been shit all year for a horse coming back from such a long lay off.

[Imperial Commander]

The age thing is interesting too.

I would see that as a negative for the future as ITP wouldn't have long at the top in open company (if he gets there).

But for this year I would have no problem with him being an 8yo at the Festival, maybe he's stronger and more developed than the younger types at this stage.

Not actually putting up ITP as the winner of the Arkle as this stage, I actually preferred Maj's debut over fences recently (lower RPR at 151).

But more than happy to have ITP in the book as a player at this stage.

[Quevega]

A bit more perspective on the RPR of 154.
Leau du sud got 155 RPR for winning a grade 1 at sandown.

Even if Inthepocket steps up well into graded company that RPR is very much guesswork, especially at a track like Wexford.

A lot of the ratings are untrustworthy and get changed at a later date in those low grade novice race maidens etc.

I'm more inclined to trust RPR's in higher grade races than maidens. And/Or when the timing of a race is clearly standout.

[Imperial Commander]

A bit more perspective on the RPR of 154.
Leau du sud got 155 RPR for winning a grade 1 at sandown.

Even if Inthepocket steps up well into graded company that RPR is very much guesswork, especially at a track like Wexford.

A lot of the ratings are untrustworthy and get changed at a later date in those low grade novice race maidens etc.

I'm more inclined to trust RPR's in higher grade races than maidens. And/Or when the timing of a race is clearly standout.

Pretty much agree with all of that.

For novices, ratings are always more of a guess than later when there's more collateral form to refer to.

Early ratings are just one piece of information in the incomplete jigsaw so worth taking note of with everything else.

[ComplyOrDie]

Just because RPR's are the talk of the town, currently.

Lecky Watson got a 137 for his win at Naas on Monday.

[Lobos]

Back to ratings again but isn't meh a bit harsh when ITP has the highest debut RPR of all the Arkle contenders?

That belongs to Jango Baie. ITP has had 2 runs over fences.

[ComplyOrDie]

Nothing wrong with Inthepocket form, IMO.

Fourth in a Supreme, a G1 winning novice hurdler at Aintree, beating a now G1 winning staying hurdler and also beating a horse who placed in last season Champion Hurdle.

His novice chase run last season was definitely a ride to remember, being tenderly handled, as Craigy14 said, but in 4th that day was none other than Spillanes Tower, now rated 165 having just finished a close up 2nd in the John Durkan, contested by a load of Gold Cup favourites.

His seasonal debut this time around, hammering Farren Glory, who has close enough form ties with Touch Me Not (won a G2 in Ireland) who in turn has close ties with L'eau Du Sud (won an Arkle trial).

If we are talking form, then we can go back to beating Tullyhill & Asian Master, getting weight, if you want.

I know which form I prefer!

[Imperial Commander]

That belongs to Jango Baie. ITP has had 2 runs over fences.

True, I wasn't counting ITP's run last season.

And personally I wouldn't be including JB for the Arkle, maybe his high debut RPR is a good sign for those that are including him!

[Lobos]

True, I wasn't counting ITP's run last season.

And personally I wouldn't be including JB for the Arkle, maybe his high debut RPR is a good sign for those that are including him!

Dangerous to discount him. He could easily turn out to be Nicky's number 1 Arkle horse should SG stick to Hurdles.

[Quevega]

Nothing wrong with Inthepocket form, IMO.

Fourth in a Supreme, a G1 winning novice hurdler at Aintree, beating a now G1 winning staying hurdler and also beating a horse who placed in last season Champion Hurdle.

His novice chase run last season was definitely a ride to remember, being tenderly handled, as Craigy14 said, but in 4th that day was none other than Spillanes Tower, now rated 165 having just finished a close up 2nd in the John Durkan, contested by a load of Gold Cup favourites.

His seasonal debut this time around, hammering Farren Glory, who has close enough form ties with Touch Me Not (won a G2 in Ireland) who in turn has close ties with L'eau Du Sud (won an Arkle trial).

If we are talking form, then we can go back to beating Tullyhill & Asian Master, getting weight, if you want.

I know which form I prefer!

The point is that form in a beginners race (most of them anyway) has to be taken with a pinch. So any RPR's in these races are particularly unreliable.
It's when they step into graded company against other previous winners that matters.

If you can't see that Majborough is a better horse than Inthepocket then I can't help you any further

[Lobos]

The point is that form in a beginners race (most of them anyway) has to be taken with a pinch. So any RPR's in these races are particularly unreliable.
It's when they step into graded company against other previous winners that matters.

If you can't see that Majborough is a better horse than Inthepocket then I can't help you any further

If JD is right, we'll find out on Jan 5th !

[Imperial Commander]

Dangerous to discount him. He could easily turn out to be Nicky's number 1 Arkle horse should SG stick to Hurdles.

Happy to run that risk as I see him over further for now.

You can't back them all although I seem to have had a good go in this year's Arkle!

Also a little odd that Iberico Lord has been declared as topweight in a 2m1f handicap on Friday!