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2025 Novice Chasers

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  • Originally posted by darlojim View Post

    Majborough is just so much more unexposed than what Fakir what at their relative stages of their careers. For him to have done what he did on what was his 3rd lifetime start in the Triumph, followed by his 4th the other day, he has such a high ceiling, whereas you kind of seen what Fakir was about in his juvenile year and not quite top of the crop.

    Would have been great to see Sir Gino against Maj in the Triumph, as I'm not certain which one I would have favoured if the 2 of them ran, saying that, we were robbed of what could have been an absolute classic with Anzadam not making the race either.
    Oh, I agree about Majborough's ceiling. But even if I factor in for the unknown, I still have to remember how hard it is for 5 year olds to race in open company without an allowance.

    My god, that would have been some race. I think I would have favoured Sir Gino, just! Wouldn't like to call it for 2nd or 3rd.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

      Oh, I agree about Majborough's ceiling. But even if I factor in for the unknown, I still have to remember how hard it is for 5 year olds to race in open company without an allowance.

      My god, that would have been some race. I think I would have favoured Sir Gino, just! Wouldn't like to call it for 2nd or 3rd.
      What 5yos have actually attempted it?

      I wouldnt know without looking


      ** Just had a quick scan through

      Much of a muchness really in terms of comparable ability to what Majborough has - I wouldn't have the likes of Riviere D'etel, Haut En Couleurs, Saint Sam, Allmankind etc in the same bracket
      Last edited by darlojim; 17 December 2024, 02:11 PM.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

        I think the comparison is more than fair. Fakir was a very good juvenile, as I've just noted to Rooster. He was also rated 150 at the time of the Supreme, Majborough finished the season rated 150, albeit 'could' have gone higher had he carried on racing at the end of the season.

        Melon was also once rated 165 over hurdles, 159 when he went chasing, Tullyhill is rated 147 over hurdles. If anything Fakir had the more difficult race. It doesn't matter where Melon ended up, he was still placed in two Champion Hurdles over 2m.

        My point about Fakir was, despite how good he was, he still couldn't win an Arkle. Yes, PTKO was a decent enough mare, but it wasn't a stellar period for 2m chasers, IMO. She beat Nube Negra in the QMCC, FFS!

        This seasons Arkle, on paper, at least, is looking a whole lot hotter than previous years, and is going to take some winning.

        I really hope Majborough goes well, I have him E/W at least, but I'd not be quite as bullish as quite a few on here seem to be!

        Well done on your big prices / guaranteed profit though, that's some proper work done
        Even if we disagree on how good a juvenile was vs another.

        The fact remains that they are not the same horse or in the same season/era.
        All arkles look exciting at this time of the year and most turn out not to be, although with no turners then this years might end up decent. fingers crossed.

        I repeat.
        very few really good ones try.
        Fakir was 1 and a half lengths from being successful.
        I'm not sure any comparisons matter in this context, especially all the fucking numbers

        His price now is shite, the boat has sailed.
        People should wait it out and hope he's not good enough, or doesn't participate for some reason

        Comment


        • Originally posted by darlojim View Post

          What 5yos have actually attempted it?

          I wouldnt know without looking


          ** Just had a quick scan through

          Much of a muchness really in terms of comparable ability to what Majborough has - I wouldn't have the likes of Riviere D'etel, Haut En Couleurs, Saint Sam, Allmankind etc in the same bracket
          Which is why I also used Fakir as a comparison, he's about as close as we've had in recent years.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

            I would say Maj has cemented his place in the Arkle.
            I think Ballyburn is still to convince either way.
            His next run imo may well sort out his destination.
            I'm with you on this one Carnage. Arkle is not a done deal . He may need Ballyburn to win the BANC as well.

            Comment


            • Must admit I’ve never been one to use …..well this horse did this the other year etc etc, just don’t really mean much imo, comparing all that. But each to their own of course.

              Sometimes you just get this feeling that we may have an exceptional year, and with Maj and Sir G I get that feeling we have two special talented 4 year olds, one of which we have seen can jump fences at speed and another that apparently does, but yet to be seen by us as doing so.

              I’ve been quiet excited for this race for a while now, and been watching each horse really closely as to how they are travelling and jumping.
              Im largely ignoring their respective hurdle ratings and achievements and pretty much concentrating on their respective chase performances.
              Not taking too much notice of stable politics either.
              I think that if a horse is deemed to be good enough with his performances to have a good chance in the Arkle he or she will run in the race, irrespective of what they did hurdling or how many the stable has.
              I really think this race will be decided by the speed in jumping and any horse that impresses me in that dept during the build up will be one I will look at.
              For me, Maj, ITP, CP and Jango stand out thus far, and all are covered.
              Sir Gino I am keeping an eye on things.
              Ballyburn is the one that screws me completely, but at least he’s one that has not impressed me with his jumping, but I do accept that if he does nto, then that’s a problem for me.

              Comment


              • 5yo's actually have a very decent record in the Arkle don't they? May have to go back some years and they did get an allowance then but they were still 5yo's.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                  5yo's actually have a very decent record in the Arkle don't they? May have to go back some years and they did get an allowance then but they were still 5yo's.
                  Yeah, I think we went through this before, it was when the allowance was given.

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                  • 14 5yo winners of the Arkle

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                    • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                      14 5yo winners of the Arkle
                      8 of which were before 1960, f**k, we've gone to a whole new level going back that far

                      How many in the last 15 seasons?

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                      • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                        14 5yo winners of the Arkle
                        Thats it then
                        ​​​​​​
                        Majborough and Sir Gino dead heat.

                        Job done

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                        • I think when trainers that have produced so many good 2 milers as WM and NH have, you have to take note when they go Nov chasing with 4 year olds.
                          They wouldn’t do it with any old 4 year old imo.
                          Simple as that for me.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                            14 5yo winners of the Arkle
                            Most fascinating Fact that not many people will know or realise.

                            Arkle never even won the fucking arkle.

                            He won the Broadway Novices (BANC) instead.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post
                              I think when trainers that have produced so many good 2 milers as WM and NH have, you have to take note when they go Nov chasing with 4 year olds.
                              They wouldn’t do it with any old 4 year old imo.
                              Simple as that for me.
                              Really?

                              Haut En Coleurs, Saint Sam?

                              Maybe WPM doesn't feel he has a great Arkle squad, and so Majborough is slotting into that. A bit like the two above did.

                              FWIW Saint Sam was very impressive on his chase debut too getting 4lbs from his main rivals.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                                Really?

                                Haut En Coleurs, Saint Sam?

                                Maybe WPM doesn't feel he has a great Arkle squad, and so Majborough is slotting into that. A bit like the two above did.

                                FWIW Saint Sam was very impressive on his chase debut too getting 4lbs from his main rivals.
                                Maybe he thought they were both better than ordinary?
                                They did both run in the Arkle though.
                                Then it’s how good they are compared to opponents .
                                Those two weren’t good enough, these might be.

                                Comment

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