2025 Novice Chasers

[Carnage at Taunton]

I don't believe they ever thought Majborough would be a serious Arkle dart because they had that race on the radar for Ballyburn and any 5yo season is likely to be an educating one, but like all things Mullins nothing is decided in Summer/Autumn, what the horses do on a racecourse will determine their target.
Some may not have been massively impressed with Dancing City's chase debut but it looked respectable enough to me for a horse probably no more than 80% fit, and Dancing City is not his only staying horse.
Right now I'd say Ballyburn Arkle is still likely and if that plays out Majborough either stays at home or could be one for the new handicap race assuming he doesn't go and put up a 160 performance between now and March.

I will raise a controversial flag given so many in here were gushing at Majboroughs chase debut, he was getting weight from Tullyhill and that one disappointed massively at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season, also right on his tail was Asian Master, another failed festival performer who may never be better than a handicapper, it was a solid performance but I wouldn't be getting carried away and certainly not joining the queue to get the 4/1 on offer...

All about opinions on what you see I guess.
I saw a horse(Maj) that jumped and travelled like a 2 miler, much like Caldwell and Jango.
When I watched Ballyburn I didn’t see that at all.
Be interesting to see how it all pans out, but personally I will be amazed if Maj doesn’t line up in the Arkle.
I said after the race he should be fav and I stand by that.
CP will be a big runner if it comes up soft, or worse.
Jango is a big runner if they choose this race for him and imo worth a go at the prices .

[Rooster Booster]

I don't believe they ever thought Majborough would be a serious Arkle dart because they had that race on the radar for Ballyburn and any 5yo season is likely to be an educating one, but like all things Mullins nothing is decided in Summer/Autumn, what the horses do on a racecourse will determine their target.
Some may not have been massively impressed with Dancing City's chase debut but it looked respectable enough to me for a horse probably no more than 80% fit, and Dancing City is not his only staying horse.
Right now I'd say Ballyburn Arkle is still likely and if that plays out Majborough either stays at home or could be one for the new handicap race assuming he doesn't go and put up a 160 performance between now and March.

I will raise a controversial flag given so many in here were gushing at Majboroughs chase debut, he was getting weight from Tullyhill and that one disappointed massively at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season, also right on his tail was Asian Master, another failed festival performer who may never be better than a handicapper, it was a solid performance but I wouldn't be getting carried away and certainly not joining the queue to get the 4/1 on offer...

The folks that are gushing I suspect are doing so not because they are wanking themselves silly will over him beating Tullyhill but because of the overall impression he generated together with the inability of both jockey and trainer to hide their delight and admiration post race as well as his obvious upward potential. Recognising his scope and potential I think it is reasonable to overlay his current ability with that anticipated improvement and when you do that he feels like a formidable player. Put it this way I’d be feeling VERY vulnerable if I had the field bar him atm.

[ComplyOrDie]

The folks that are gushing I suspect are doing so not because they are wanking themselves silly will over him beating Tullyhill but because of the overall impression he generated together with the inability of both jockey and trainer to hide their delight and admiration post race as well as his obvious upward potential. Recognising his scope and potential I think it is reasonable to overlay his current ability with that anticipated improvement and when you do that he feels like a formidable player. Put it this way I’d be feeling VERY vulnerable if I had the field bar him atm.

I remember there being some very bullish comments on Fakir D'Oudairies for the Arkle after he beat Melon, just as easy as Majborough beat Tullyhill et al. Melon was a better animal than the lot Majborough beat too. He just got touched off in the JLT Novice Chase. I couldn't see Tullyhill etc... upholding that level of form.

He got a slightly bigger age allowance than Majborough did the other day, but even so, it's something he won't be getting come March.

Fakir D'Oudairies still failed to win that seasons Arkle, which wasn't exactly a stellar renewal, either.

I feel the 4 going on 5 year olds are a lot more ready to go, to take advantage of said allowance early on in the season than those who don't have that allowance.

I have Majborough covered, so it's most certainly not 'pocket talk' but I do think, IF they all turn up and perform, he'll struggle to make the frame, let alone win it.

I have Sir Gino as a better horse than Majborough and he if turns up that's one of his own age I don't think he'll be finishing ahead of.

I don't think anyone should feel 'vulnerable' because they don't have one horse backed!

[Rooster Booster]

I remember there being some very bullish comments on Fakir D'Oudairies for the Arkle after he beat Melon, just as easy as Majborough beat Tullyhill et al. Melon was a better animal than the lot Majborough beat too. He just got touched off in the JLT Novice Chase. I couldn't see Tullyhill etc... upholding that level of form.

He got a slightly bigger age allowance than Majborough did the other day, but even so, it's something he won't be getting come March.

Fakir D'Oudairies still failed to win that seasons Arkle, which wasn't exactly a stellar renewal, either.

I feel the 4 going on 5 year olds are a lot more ready to go, to take advantage of said allowance early on in the season than those who don't have that allowance.

I have Majborough covered, so it's most certainly not 'pocket talk' but I do think, IF they all turn up and perform, he'll struggle to make the frame, let alone win it.

I have Sir Gino as a better horse than Majborough and he if turns up that's one of his own age I don't think he'll be finishing ahead of.

I don't think anyone should feel 'vulnerable' because they don't have one horse backed!

If you truly believe that Majborough/Fakir D’oudaries is a reasonable comparison then it’s no wonder you think he’ll struggle to make the frame.

Could you expand on your statement about not thinking anyone should feel vulnerable about not having one horse backed please …thanks

[Quevega]

I remember there being some very bullish comments on Fakir D'Oudairies for the Arkle after he beat Melon, just as easy as Majborough beat Tullyhill et al. Melon was a better animal than the lot Majborough beat too. He just got touched off in the JLT Novice Chase. I couldn't see Tullyhill etc... upholding that level of form.

He got a slightly bigger age allowance than Majborough did the other day, but even so, it's something he won't be getting come March.

Fakir D'Oudairies still failed to win that seasons Arkle, which wasn't exactly a stellar renewal, either.

I feel the 4 going on 5 year olds are a lot more ready to go, to take advantage of said allowance early on in the season than those who don't have that allowance.

I have Majborough covered, so it's most certainly not 'pocket talk' but I do think, IF they all turn up and perform, he'll struggle to make the frame, let alone win it.

I have Sir Gino as a better horse than Majborough and he if turns up that's one of his own age I don't think he'll be finishing ahead of.

I don't think anyone should feel 'vulnerable' because they don't have one horse backed!

I think the big issue here is that most have written off 5 yr olds for the arkle, when in reality, very few have tried over the years, especially the really good ones (champion juveniles).

The really good ones often stay over hurdles for another year before going chasing as the attraction of becoming a champion 2 miler and wanting them to develop more is much more in most trainers minds rather than getting on with chasing.

Majborough on a line through Kargese and as a triumph hurdle winner on his third ever race start is certainly one of them (a really good one).

Sir Gino, the same, although he's yet to see a fence in public and might not this season. But he also won an open grade one on his first start in open company over hurdles (shit field but he did it easily) -

Sir Gino's price for the arkle has not been good value for weeks though as he has been talked up as the best jumper of a fence in the history of the world from the best talker up of a horse in the history of the world, and people couldn't get the "Majborough is a Gold cup horse and will stay in time" out of their heads. Both these aspects, taken as a major factor when betting for this seasons arkle are clearly ridiculous. But many have done so.

These horses are both already exceptional 4 yr olds, that's fucking obvious.

So talk of other 4yr olds like Fakir (who was a decent 4yr old but not exceptional) is superfluous.

And it's worth remembering that Melon never ran in an arkle as he got his arse handed to him in Dublin, by horses he was far superior to over hurdles (mainly cos he spent more seasons hurdling)

Fakir did run in THE arkle though, and finished second, a good 20 lengths or so clear of the other 9 runners, 7 of which were rated in the 150's.

He lost to a surprisingly good mare who improved plenty for chasing and seemed to love the course, and obviously went on to win a Queen mother the following year.
So Fakir is actually a bad example as he did rather well for a 5 year old.

I agree that feeling vulnerable is not necessary, I would be more ashamed of myself

That's not saying he's definitely going to win or even run in an arkle. But only idiots make antepost bets thinking along those lines in novice divisions at this stage of the season, with so much to play out.
The game right now is getting the right prices for the right races, and this horse was a value bet for the arkle for weeks up until the day he ran. He isn't now, for sure.

Anyone that thinks the 6lb allowance made much difference needs to watch the race again. IMO.

[darlojim]

Hard to make comparisons between Fakir D'oudaries and Majborough

Fakir had 5 starts in FR, 1 on the flat, 2 over hurdles and 2 over fences failing to win in any of those.

He then went to Joseph where he won easy on IRE debut and followed that up with a smooth win in the Triumph trial at Chelt. They opted to go for the Supreme where he was only 4th, outpaced before running on again in receipt of the age allowance. He was then moved back into his own company for Aintree and Punchestown run credibly without winning either race.

Majborough came from FR with a huge reputation after winning the Prix Grandak for Daniela Mele which is often a very strong juvenile contest and one to follow through seasons. He then went to Leopardstown for the DRF and after running free for the whole race still managed a gallant 3rd staying on stoutly against horses that had race fitness on side. I believe he won the Triumph very easily indeed and still looked as green as anything between the last 2 before getting well on top beating Kargese who had since franked the form in Punchestown.

Fakir D'oudaries win over Melon was similar but not exactly copy book stuff, Majborough won with a whole load more authority than what FD beat Melon. I believe Majborough brings enough potential into the race and would be very wary of the horse (as I am of Sir Gino if they send him chasing) if I didn't have him in the book.

For all you RPR lovers - Majboroughs chase debut was 5lb clear of FD also (not that I give a fuck )

If I were to rank the market right now in order of where I think they would finish in an Arkle, I'd have it

Inthepocket
Majborough / Sir Gino (SG on potential obviously as yet to see a fence, good ol' Nicky saying he's never seen 1 jump aswell as him)
Ballyburn
Leau du Sud

[Exar Essay]

darlojim You say you don't care about ratings, but your ranking reflects their seasonal debut RPRs ...

[darlojim]

darlojim You say you don't care about ratings, but your ranking reflects their seasonal debut RPRs ...

Do they actually

I can't say I've checked

Maybe I'm the RPR man?!

[Runragged]

I don't believe they ever thought Majborough would be a serious Arkle dart because they had that race on the radar for Ballyburn and any 5yo season is likely to be an educating one, but like all things Mullins nothing is decided in Summer/Autumn, what the horses do on a racecourse will determine their target.
Some may not have been massively impressed with Dancing City's chase debut but it looked respectable enough to me for a horse probably no more than 80% fit, and Dancing City is not his only staying horse.
Right now I'd say Ballyburn Arkle is still likely and if that plays out Majborough either stays at home or could be one for the new handicap race assuming he doesn't go and put up a 160 performance between now and March.

I will raise a controversial flag given so many in here were gushing at Majboroughs chase debut, he was getting weight from Tullyhill and that one disappointed massively at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season, also right on his tail was Asian Master, another failed festival performer who may never be better than a handicapper, it was a solid performance but I wouldn't be getting carried away and certainly not joining the queue to get the 4/1 on offer...

Interesting. Why do you think he won't run Ballyburn and Majborough in the Arkle given the chance? He had the fav and 2nd fav last year and the fav and 3rd fav the year before so not afraid to pitch two with good chances in the same race. As to the form of their respective chase debuts, we can assess it however we like. Tullyhill was a listed winner over hurdles with an RPR of 145 who did disappoint at the end of the season. Asian Master was 4th in the Supreme with a peak RPR of 142. Ocastle Des Mottes was only 5th in a Martin Pipe off 133 and had an RPR peak of 131. We won't talk about the 3rd to Ballyburn who was 24 lengths behind "handicapper" Asian Master when last seen over hurdles...

[ComplyOrDie]

If you truly believe that Majborough/Fakir D’oudaries is a reasonable comparison then it’s no wonder you think he’ll struggle to make the frame.

Fakir was actually a very good juvenile, not many juveniles place in a Supreme when they should have been running in a Triumph. I think the comparison is fair.

[ComplyOrDie]

So talk of other 4yr olds like Fakir (who was a decent 4yr old but not exceptional) is superfluous.

And it's worth remembering that Melon never ran in an arkle as he got his arse handed to him in Dublin, by horses he was far superior to over hurdles (mainly cos he spent more seasons hurdling)

Fakir did run in THE arkle though, and finished second, a good 20 lengths or so clear of the other 9 runners, 7 of which were rated in the 150's.

He lost to a surprisingly good mare who improved plenty for chasing and seemed to love the course, and obviously went on to win a Queen mother the following year.
So Fakir is actually a bad example as he did rather well for a 5 year old.

I think the comparison is more than fair. Fakir was a very good juvenile, as I've just noted to Rooster. He was also rated 150 at the time of the Supreme, Majborough finished the season rated 150, albeit 'could' have gone higher had he carried on racing at the end of the season.

Melon was also once rated 165 over hurdles, 159 when he went chasing, Tullyhill is rated 147 over hurdles. If anything Fakir had the more difficult race. It doesn't matter where Melon ended up, he was still placed in two Champion Hurdles over 2m.

My point about Fakir was, despite how good he was, he still couldn't win an Arkle. Yes, PTKO was a decent enough mare, but it wasn't a stellar period for 2m chasers, IMO. She beat Nube Negra in the QMCC, FFS!

This seasons Arkle, on paper, at least, is looking a whole lot hotter than previous years, and is going to take some winning.

I really hope Majborough goes well, I have him E/W at least, but I'd not be quite as bullish as quite a few on here seem to be!

Well done on your big prices / guaranteed profit though, that's some proper work done

[Leman14]

Fakir was actually a very good juvenile, not many juveniles place in a Supreme when they should have been running in a Triumph. I think the comparison is fair.

Still wasn't good enough to beat Pentland Hills though
(Seen through lilac and black tinted glasses...)

[ComplyOrDie]

Hard to make comparisons between Fakir D'oudaries and Majborough

It wasn't hard, at all.

Both were top juveniles of their year, maybe not the best, but right up there. Both were given ratings of 150 at some point during their juvenile seasons.

I realise their profiles were not identical, that's hard to achieve, but it's who Majborough reminded me of on chase debut.

Fakir beat a better horse, in Melon, so if anything could be upgraded over what Majborough done.

[ComplyOrDie]

Still wasn't good enough to beat Pentland Hills though
(Seen through lilac and black tinted glasses...)

Haha love it

[darlojim]

It wasn't hard, at all.

Both were top juveniles of their year, maybe not the best, but right up there. Both were given ratings of 150 at some point during their juvenile seasons.

I realise their profiles were not identical, that's hard to achieve, but it's who Majborough reminded me of on chase debut.

Fakir beat a better horse, in Melon, so if anything could be upgraded over what Majborough done.

Majborough is just so much more unexposed than what Fakir what at their relative stages of their careers. For him to have done what he did on what was his 3rd lifetime start in the Triumph, followed by his 4th the other day, he has such a high ceiling, whereas you kind of seen what Fakir was about in his juvenile year and not quite top of the crop.

Would have been great to see Sir Gino against Maj in the Triumph, as I'm not certain which one I would have favoured if the 2 of them ran, saying that, we were robbed of what could have been an absolute classic with Anzadam not making the race either.