2025 Novice Chasers

[luisgarciaisgod]

As to the question of clouding judgement, I would say no, but it often supports what you believe anyway. It certainly makes me question a good performance however to see how good the form was. Thinking of recent examples, we have Firefox who won on debut, but with an RPR of just 135. Followed up in a grade 1 with 140. Compare that to previous Arkle winners RPR's, then excusing a massive outlier in Put The Kettle On, the lowest RPR on seasonal chase debut of winners has been 142 and 149 for the first two runs. He is 7lb and 9lb off what you would expect of the minimum. Yet he is a best price of 12/1 for the race! I have already backed him as can be seen on my blog and I will accept the loss as in my mind he cannot win the race. If you do have the option of cashing out for a loss then I would definitely suggest taking it!

See Firefox is a prime example of why I'd never use an RPR as a stick for horses at the festival.

Twice Firefox has ran over a distance that is too far for him, both times on ground that was a little too fast for him (and is unlikely to be that fast come March) and in defeat was given a really poor ride by a jockey who has never ridden him before.and is unlikely to be riding him come March.

What i took from the two rides is that he's a really slick jumper and doesn't really appeciate 2m4 but yet finished less than a length behind a 155 rated chaser with lots more chase experience than him and running at his close to optimum trip.

Get him back to down to the minimum 2m trip under a jockey that knows how to use him and hopefully on ground that is more akin to what he'll encounter in the Arkle and then make a proper judgement.

[Runragged]

I’m not sure advising people to cash out unsolicited is a great idea as you are risking people losing a lot more than stake money if you are wrong compared to what they would lose if you provided a selection that lost. You made your argument and have used it to give an opinion on a horse that you have backed. Fair enough. You have provided backers of Firefox with some data that they can then use or not use but suggesting to others what they should do with their bets because of a view you hold is overreaching imo.

I absolutely know that we are all adults and big enough and ugly enough to make our own decisions but I for one wouldn’t want this forum to recommend unsolicited cash outs for any reason other than setbacks/ofts or not turning up type purposes. Maybe others disagree and we can introduce this new dimension if folks think it’s a good idea?

My apologies, was just giving my opinion which I thought I made clear. If we are happy to talk about horses that we believe are good value then can we not talk about those that are poor? If it is poor value (Ie, I think it should be at least 33/1) then cashing out when he is 12/1 is therefore value even if we took a shorter price (I am on at 8/1).

[Garrison Savannah]

My apologies, was just giving my opinion which I thought I made clear. If we are happy to talk about horses that we believe are good value then can we not talk about those that are poor? If it is poor value (Ie, I think it should be at least 33/1) then cashing out when he is 12/1 is therefore value even if we took a shorter price (I am on at 8/1).

Don’t think there was anything wrong with what you posted.

If we followed everybody’s opinion on here our accounts would be like an extremely long Chuckle Brothers game.

Keep giving ‘advice’ I say…we all have the opportunity to tell you it’s a steaming pile of (Olly Murphy trained) manure.

[SeanRock]

See Firefox is a prime example of why I'd never use an RPR as a stick for horses at the festival.

Twice Firefox has ran over a distance that is too far for him, both times on ground that was a little too fast for him (and is unlikely to be that fast come March) and in defeat was given a really poor ride by a jockey who has never ridden him before.and is unlikely to be riding him come March.

What i took from the two rides is that he's a really slick jumper and doesn't really appeciate 2m4 but yet finished less than a length behind a 155 rated chaser with lots more chase experience than him and running at his close to optimum trip.

Get him back to down to the minimum 2m trip under a jockey that knows how to use him and hopefully on ground that is more akin to what he'll encounter in the Arkle and then make a proper judgement.

Why has Gordon running him over distances that are too far for him? Is he looking for a mark…

The 2m novice hurdle form from last season is looking very suspect, a handicap would be probably be the sensible play in fairness.

[Runragged]

See Firefox is a prime example of why I'd never use an RPR as a stick for horses at the festival.

Twice Firefox has ran over a distance that is too far for him, both times on ground that was a little too fast for him (and is unlikely to be that fast come March) and in defeat was given a really poor ride by a jockey who has never ridden him before.and is unlikely to be riding him come March.

What i took from the two rides is that he's a really slick jumper and doesn't really appeciate 2m4 but yet finished less than a length behind a 155 rated chaser with lots more chase experience than him and running at his close to optimum trip.

Get him back to down to the minimum 2m trip under a jockey that knows how to use him and hopefully on ground that is more akin to what he'll encounter in the Arkle and then make a proper judgement.

Exact reason why you should consider RPR's. You are judging the whole race on Heart Wood and assuming he has run to his rating, as opposed to him running below par and the other runners performing close to their ability. On your theory then Croke Park and Firefox has run to 155 and Gorgeous Tom has run to 154!

Now, he ran his best hurdle performance on yielding ground (Know you don't want to use RPRs so Official Rating of 146 stayed same after Cheltenham but went up 5lb after Aintree) and nothing in his form suggests that he must have soft ground.
Maybe he will be better back down at 2m though racing at a steady pace for a long way over 2m 4f should of suited him better than many he raced against. He was rated 16lb better over hurdles compared for Gorgeous Tom yet beat him by 1/2 length. He was also 11lb better than Croke Park over hurdles who also wants further.

He would need significant improvement to be remotely close to consideration for the Arkle in my opinion.

[Runragged]

Why has Gordon running him over distances that are too far for him? Is he looking for a mark…

The 2m novice hurdle form from last season is looking very suspect, a handicap would be probably be the sensible play in fairness.

Trainers quite often like to run at a longer trip over fences as a novice as there is less emphasis on the jumping. Get a horse used to racing and jumping before then dropping back in trip to get to jump at speed.

Like you say though, that form from last season is looking questionable for now.

[Quevega]

Don’t think there was anything wrong with what you posted.

If we followed everybody’s opinion on here our accounts would be like an extremely long Chuckle Brothers game.

Keep giving ‘advice’ I say…we all have the opportunity to tell you it’s a steaming pile of (Olly Murphy trained) manure.

Is there a chuckles brothers game ?
Cos if there is I want one for Christmas.

[Quevega]

See Firefox is a prime example of why I'd never use an RPR as a stick for horses at the festival.

Twice Firefox has ran over a distance that is too far for him, both times on ground that was a little too fast for him (and is unlikely to be that fast come March) and in defeat was given a really poor ride by a jockey who has never ridden him before.and is unlikely to be riding him come March.

What i took from the two rides is that he's a really slick jumper and doesn't really appeciate 2m4 but yet finished less than a length behind a 155 rated chaser with lots more chase experience than him and running at his close to optimum trip.

Get him back to down to the minimum 2m trip under a jockey that knows how to use him and hopefully on ground that is more akin to what he'll encounter in the Arkle and then make a proper judgement.

The only thing that's a little too fast for Firefox is usually at least one or two others horses in the graded races he competes in.
IMO.
And I backed him at 16-1 when B365 hung it out after Jennings tipped him.
But not a day's gone by since then when I haven't thought about cashing it.

It's like the skin tag on my inner thigh, I want to cut it off every day but never get round to it.
I've heard apple cider vinegar would be a better option.

[Rooster Booster]

The only thing that's a little too fast for Firefox is usually at least one or two others horses in the graded races he competes in.
IMO.
And I backed him at 16-1 when B365 hung it out after Jennings tipped him.
But not a day's gone by since then when I haven't thought about cashing it.

It's like the skin tag on my inner thigh, I want to cut it off every day but never get round to it.
I've heard apple cider vinegar would be a better option.

Well if the same happens in the Arkle and you’ve backed him EW you’ve made a profit.

[Quevega]

Well if the same happens in the Arkle and you’ve backed him EW you’ve made a profit.

Not backed each way.
Already in profit on arkle, thanks to all the Majborough doubters on the machine.

[Rooster Booster]

Not backed each way.
Already in profit on arkle, thanks to all the Majborough doubters on the machine.

Nice one Q ….looks like the real deal.

[Quevega]

Nice one Q ….looks like the real deal.

Yeah, almost makes up for all the shitty novice mares I've wasted money on. but not quite.

[Rooster Booster]

Yeah, almost makes up for all the shitty novice mares I've wasted money on. but not quite.

Hendo has one entered at Haydock on Saturday that I liked the look of fto. There again according to rprs she’s probably just another shitty novice to add to your list

[Ice]

The only thing that's a little too fast for Firefox is usually at least one or two others horses in the graded races he competes in.
IMO.
And I backed him at 16-1 when B365 hung it out after Jennings tipped him.
But not a day's gone by since then when I haven't thought about cashing it.

It's like the skin tag on my inner thigh, I want to cut it off every day but never get round to it.
I've heard apple cider vinegar would be a better option.

Think I've backed apple cider vinegar for the bartlett !

[That Horse]

skin tag

Cryotherapy products are available in the likes of Boots and Amazon. GPs used to use liquid nitrogen on this kind of thing but there's probably waiting lists these days, plus your GP might be a bit apprehensive when you start mentioning your inner thigh