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2025 Novice Chasers

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  • Originally posted by darlojim View Post

    Another reason why RPRs are nonsense, it's just somones opinion on a race.
    As I've stated before, they can be used as a guide, only, but personally wouldn't take them as gospel. Won't stop me putting them up though

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    • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

      As I've stated before, they can be used as a guide, only, but personally wouldn't take them as gospel. Won't stop me putting them up though
      Personally I find them invaluable in terms of the variables one needs to analyse a future race. If they were just a matter of opinion then I would not value them as much as I do. They are the result of linking other horses in the race as well as what the individuals potential might be based on previous performance in eg hurdles when turning to fences. Of course ‘opinion’ has to come into it but they are so much more than that. Visually Jango was in my opinion impressive and there were some good horses behind him. I had not backed him on the day but I have now.

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      • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

        As I've stated before, they can be used as a guide, only, but personally wouldn't take them as gospel. Won't stop me putting them up though
        RPR man obviously didnt get a price on DC

        I know plenty do use it as a guide as you say, but I'd say it could sometimes cloud judgement on a horse? I don't have any idea as its not something I've ever even bothered to look at, but say you fancied a horse that won well and subsequently given a really high RPR, would that make you fancy said horse more? Likewise, if you liked a horse and again horse won well, but was only given a lower RPR, would that temper enthusiasm?

        Questions not directed entirely at you as you've said you don't use them as gospel, but just wondered in general.

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        • Majborough RPR of 151

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          • Originally posted by Killiney View Post

            Personally I find them invaluable in terms of the variables one needs to analyse a future race. If they were just a matter of opinion then I would not value them as much as I do. They are the result of linking other horses in the race as well as what the individuals potential might be based on previous performance in eg hurdles when turning to fences. Of course ‘opinion’ has to come into it but they are so much more than that. Visually Jango was in my opinion impressive and there were some good horses behind him. I had not backed him on the day but I have now.
            So for this Killiney, obviously horses improve more than others for chasing

            But would the jukebox man really be rated 12lbs better than DC this season?

            DC readily brushed him aside at Aintree, and chase starts from both horses have been good. Hard to see say a 15lb or so turnaround, so early on?

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            • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
              Majborough RPR of 151
              right im sold.

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              • Originally posted by darlojim View Post

                RPR man obviously didnt get a price on DC

                I know plenty do use it as a guide as you say, but I'd say it could sometimes cloud judgement on a horse? I don't have any idea as its not something I've ever even bothered to look at, but say you fancied a horse that won well and subsequently given a really high RPR, would that make you fancy said horse more? Likewise, if you liked a horse and again horse won well, but was only given a lower RPR, would that temper enthusiasm?

                Questions not directed entirely at you as you've said you don't use them as gospel, but just wondered in general.
                If a horse ticked boxes (of a list in my head) then performs to a high level then it would absolutely increase my belief in said horse.

                Rightly or wrongly I've cashed out horses based on low RPR's before and I can't think of one stand out that I've lived to regret. Right now I'm debating keeping Kel Histoire or not. He just recorded a 115 and I wasn't overly taken with the performance (backed up by the low RPR, IMO) despite it being 'good enough'. I'm also not mad keen on his breeding but backed him in the hope he may blow me away, which he didn't. This is just one example, it's not just down to the RPR's, but the performance, form, breeding, trainer etc... that I also consider.

                When a horse gets a low RPR but wins as he/she likes, then I reserve judgement. Horses that are ridden out to win and still record low RPR's give me bigger doubts.

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                • Originally posted by darlojim View Post

                  right im sold.
                  We always are when it sides with our own beliefs

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                  • Ile Atlantique made all the running under Paul Townend and, barring a single mistake, jumped well to come home a comfortable nine lengths ahead of the latter horse, with Good Land a further length and a half back.

                    “He attacked his fences, he’s a much bigger, stronger horse this year,” said Sean Graham, racing manager to owner Tony Bloom.

                    “Christmas will probably come too soon for him so we’re looking at a novice chase in mid-January, maybe mid-to-late January. No decision has been made on it just yet.

                    “He jumped very well, he did all the hard work himself and that’s a big ask.

                    “We couldn’t have asked for any more from him, and the right horses chased him home in second and third.

                    “It was a very hot race, he was the top-rated hurdler so he was probably entitled to win on paper, but when you go chasing you have to prove that you can jump the fences and handle it, so the way he jumped was a huge plus.”

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                    • Dancing City form boost

                      Slade no good, another poor showing for the Supreme form

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                      • Slade Steel, just not good enough or not a stayer? or both?

                        Supreme form is struggling!

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                        • Slade Steel just the type to turn up in March and get backed in after decs from 16's into about 7-1, and then run quite well.
                          Hold your bets as he's likely a good NRNB option.

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                          • ….BV holding onto 80-1 Lecky (BANC). PP cut to 20-1 from 100-1.

                            40-1 Slade Steel (BANC).
                            Last edited by Eggs; 16 December 2024, 12:43 PM.

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                            • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                              Slade Steel, just not good enough or not a stayer? or both?

                              Supreme form is struggling!
                              Yep, don't not know what to make of that. Handy little beginners and not much between them as Hurdlers so perhaps that's as good as they are. Interesting what comments afterwards. Does SS need to drop back, go out in trip ? Ballyburn for the BANC edges closer.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                                Slade Steel, just not good enough or not a stayer? or both?

                                Supreme form is struggling!
                                Just not good enough imo
                                Certainly ain’t quick enough for an Arkle and not finishing races off well enough to step up in trip imo.

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