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I think Willie will at least consider this although I've a feeling they've boxed him off as mid trip in their minds.
The arkle backers picked up on the speed of jumping stats, however the Paul Townend comments relating to him going to sleep and coming alive when he asked completely suit what you'd need to stay 3 miles. Willie will definitely pick up on this also.
Possibly yeah, but he’s yet to try 3m, although only a couple furlongs further to what he ran Saturday and on evidence it certainly doesn’t look like it being a problem.
As COD says it would be a surprise to see Dancing City run in the Grade 1 at Xmas on seasonal debut. He may only get the one run then onto the DRF. So Paul will likely get the opportunity to sit on them all prior to them clashing at say the DRF pre Cheltenham.
There's been extensive posts on here over the years about trainers and their routes/habits during the season, and Willie is one of those that tends to stick to them, so with regards to Impaire Et Passe, I'm not sure why the Arkle is being spoken of.
The race Impaire Et Passe won was previously won by Monkfish, as well as placed efforts for I Am Maximus & Acapella Bourgeois, all of which ended up in the BANC.
He also used it for Sir Des Champs, who won, and he ended up in the then, Jewson's Novices Chase (last seasons Turners).
I realise the limited number of races probably means he has to start them somewhere but even so, it's a fair drop back down to the Arkle trip after romping home in what looked an OK field over nearly 2m6f.
The only reason Gaelic Warrior stepped back down is because he got beat over 2m5f @ Leopardstown and was mad keen. Impaire Et passe settles lovely, jumps well and just needs to prove he can get 3m. I'm hoping he ends up in the Nevills over Christmas next vs Better Days Ahead. Both Gordon & Willie use that race for their BANC horses.
A couple of side notes for IEP.
He's by Diamond Boy. The same sire as former BANC winner, L'Homme Presse. You'll have to stick with me here, and probably less relevant in relation to where he ends up, but IEP's grand sires dam is Floripedes, who produced the brilliant Montjeu. Bit of useless information none of you ever needed!
Gavin Lynch, after seeing him debut: "Impaire Et Passe won't be winning an Arkle". He's a fair enough judge, and I'd be in agreeance.
A bit like most of Willies first time up, he looked a bit of a lump on Saturday. Plenty to come off of him.
Good post bar quoting Gavin Lynch and calling him a fair enough judge! Man is clueless!
I think IEP, like Gaelic Warrior, and Ballyburn, is trip versatile and he could go and win at 2 miles or 3 at Cheltenham.
If in doubt go and watch his Ballymore, and look at what he put into Gaelic Warrior over the last 2f.
Come February if the stable see him and Ballyburn as their clear top Novice Chasers, as i do now, they will split them up and send one to the Browns and the other to the Arkle with Paul on board and everything else will slot in around them.
In my view, cross doubles is the way to play this.
I think IEP, like Gaelic Warrior, and Ballyburn, is trip versatile and he could go and win at 2 miles or 3 at Cheltenham.
If in doubt go and watch his Ballymore, and look at what he put into Gaelic Warrior over the last 2f.
Come February if the stable see him and Ballyburn as their clear top Novice Chasers, as i do now, they will split them up and send one to the Browns and the other to the Arkle with Paul on board and everything else will slot in around them.
In my view, cross doubles is the way to play this.
Surely this is either a sign that IEP is a Stayer (forging clear) or Gaelic Warrior doesn't quite stay, or a mixture of both.
I think it's a mix, personally.
Gaelic Warrior went on to win over 3m at Punchestown, but looking at that opposition now, it was a nothing race, with average enough horses in and around, so I'd imagine his class meant he could saunter through that race. Not to mention 3m at Punchestown is easier to get than a fair few other courses.
Impaire Et Passe has just run and won, going away over 2m 5 1/2f, and forged clear of Gaelic Warrior in the Ballymore. He also has the speed over the intermediate trip. I've already made my thoughts clear on State Man, but IEP couldn't go with him over 2m, which would be a concern for me.
As it happens I do have the cross doubles, I done them quite early on, and with free bets only.
The problem with labelling Willie as habitual in scheduling individual horses is that the Irish NH racing calendar has seen significant changes in the last 7 years starting with the first DRF in 2018 and with other tweaks almost every year. Add to this that he now has, I believe, at least 50% more horses than 7 years ago and he just has to be more flexible. Of course, he is more likely to stick to an established pattern with his very best horses but, particularly with novices, the pecking order can change at short notice.
The problem with labelling Willie as habitual in scheduling individual horses is that the Irish NH racing calendar has seen significant changes in the last 7 years starting with the first DRF in 2018 and with other tweaks almost every year. Add to this that he now has, I believe, at least 50% more horses than 7 years ago and he just has to be more flexible. Of course, he is more likely to stick to an established pattern with his very best horses but, particularly with novices, the pecking order can change at short notice.
I did touch on the fact IEP had to start somewhere, but, despite not having many 2m races to go at, there are still a few shorter races, like Ballyburn contested, to aim at, I believe, but he's gone straight for a race he sends his BANC horses to, as a general rule. He could have sent High Class Hero (was entered), Dancing City or Quai De Bourbon, assuming all fit and well, to it, who have all been touted for the BANC, but he sent IEP, his highest rated hurdler going chasing, to it.
You'll get the odd horse that he'll 'mess' around with, like Gaelic Warrior last season, but overall his habits/routes are very much in place. You know him far better than I do, but I still believe, as Ruby or Patrick (can't remember which) noted, that Willie is planning plenty far enough ahead, but of course has the flexibility to change this if necessary.
I did touch on the fact IEP had to start somewhere, but, despite not having many 2m races to go at, there are still a few shorter races, like Ballyburn contested, to aim at, I believe, but he's gone straight for a race he sends his BANC horses to, as a general rule. He could have sent High Class Hero (was entered), Dancing City or Quai De Bourbon, assuming all fit and well, to it, who have all been touted for the BANC, but he sent IEP, his highest rated hurdler going chasing, to it.
We'll find out soon enough, but I believe he sent Impaire out this week to make sure he's ready for the Faugheen chase at Limerick.
There's a 3m Novice chase on first day of leopardstown now - if IEP goes there I'll start to believe he's an RSA horse (having ummed and ahhed all summer). Realistically though, I think Willie sees him as a pure 2.5 miler and wants to make sure he wins the Grade 1 at Limerick with him so needed a run before it more than the others you mention (Willie has already stated his reservations about the 3m novice chase at xmas coming too soon for most of his novices).
I think Willie will at least consider this although I've a feeling they've boxed him off as mid trip in their minds.
The arkle backers picked up on the speed of jumping stats, however the Paul Townend comments relating to him going to sleep and coming alive when he asked completely suit what you'd need to stay 3 miles. Willie will definitely pick up on this also.
Think that's clever from Paul. Keeping his options open should Ballyburn go Arkle. Dancing City of the two (IEP) would appear to be the most likely to benefit from 3 miles over a fence but undoubtedly IEP is the classier of the two. If Ballyburn does go BANC it once again blows everything apart. Losing the Turners is horrific for punters that don't go down the Book route.
Think that's clever from Paul. Keeping his options open should Ballyburn go Arkle. Dancing City of the two (IEP) would appear to be the most likely to benefit from 3 miles over a fence but undoubtedly IEP is the classier of the two. If Ballyburn does go BANC it once again blows everything apart. Losing the Turners is horrific for punters that don't go down the Book route.
Not horrific, it would have been far worse if we still had 4 races.
People just making it hard for themselves - thats all.
Last edited by Quevega; 2 December 2024, 07:16 PM.
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