2025 Novice Chasers

[Craigy14]

Impaire et passé entered over 2m5 at fairyhouse on Saturday. Caldwell potter likely to be running over 2m at carlisle. I’ve backed IEP for the arkle and CP for the browns but fear them target may be flipped

Caldwell entered at Newbury over 2m and 2 and a half miles as well on Friday. Impaire et passé I wasn’t expecting over that trip, cashing for now as he’s no shorter before 365 wise up and grey it out. If he runs there
he ain’t going to the Arkle imo.

As COD said they greyed out Ballyburn BANC bets within minutes of WPM’s interview.

Edit - I did wonder if WPM would up IEP in trip. I’m sure he said something post race at Sandown on that fact. Daryl rides it’s for me and IEP, Paul on Ballyburn and Dancing City. What could go wrong

[chunker86]

Willie has named checked the Arkle several times in reference to IEP during stable tours.

An entry in a beginners chase over 2 and half wouldn't bother me in regards to his ultimate target in March.

[Exar Essay]

Willie has named checked the Arkle several times in reference to IEP during stable tours.

An entry in a beginners chase over 2 and half wouldn't bother me in regards to his ultimate target in March.

Just to add to this, after Thurles, there are no beginners chases for 3-weeks which are less than 2m4f. So if you want to get him out, its got to be over a trip. That being said, he could've gone to Thurles.

[FredFlintstone]

Just to add to this, after Thurles, there are no beginners chases for 3-weeks which are less than 2m4f. So if you want to get him out, its got to be over a trip. That being said, he could've gone to Thurles.

The ground in Thurles would still be a little quick for the winter horses

Edit Maybe not the ground.. He has plenty entered in the listed chase on the card

[Magpie]

Although it all seems to point towards Arkle for Ballyburn with Mullins, I still think his jumping was only ok, not massively impressive and I do think as the season progresses Mullins might think the longer race will give him more time at fences,(if he does not improve his jumping at around 2 miles) and will have no worry staying the extra distance. Long way out, but that Arkle could be really decent this year. Longer distance just looks the easiest potential option. Ps Yes I do have a nice slip for the BANC.

[Lobos]

Johnny Dineen UTA Lay of Festival at current prices........ Ballyburn Arkle

David Jennings is F2F Gold Cup


What do we know eh ??!!

[Exar Essay]

I’d say Johnny is right. Ballyburn has a heck of a lot to prove in what looks a fierce division. He’s rightly fav but 15/8 is far too short.

David’s shout isn’t unreasonable either. The 3-mile division is the strongest it’s been for a long while and you’d have the 2 x champion who’s shown no signs of wilting running for you. Whilst FTF needs to prove he gets 3m2 at Championship pace.

[Yosser]

I’d say Johnny is right. Ballyburn has a heck of a lot to prove in what looks a fierce division. He’s rightly fav but 15/8 is far too short.

David’s shout isn’t unreasonable either. The 3-mile division is the strongest it’s been for a long while and you’d have the 2 x champion who’s shown no signs of wilting running for you. Whilst FTF needs to prove he gets 3m2 at Championship pace.

Key point that. They don't mill around and then sprint in the final furlong like a normal 3 miler. All the talk last year about Corach Rambler might be able to squeak a place if he hangs on to them and he was being shoved a long was from home just to keep tabs with them before grabbing 3rd. The Savills will tell us a lot. Not just how FTF copes with GDC but Gerri Colombe also. Be interesting to see where he ranks alongside him.

[Odin]

Key point that. They don't mill around and then sprint in the final furlong like a normal 3 miler. All the talk last year about Corach Rambler might be able to squeak a place if he hangs on to them and he was being shoved a long was from home just to keep tabs with them before grabbing 3rd. The Savills will tell us a lot. Not just how FTF copes with GDC but Gerri Colombe also. Be interesting to see where he ranks alongside him.

The GDC Saville, Fact To File Ryanair roll up looks a no brainer this year to me - just in case...

I don't see FTF having any issues with the trip but at the prices, he's too good (and obvious) a horse not to have covered for the Ryanair - a bit like Fastorslow in truth

[DenmanSacre]

I think FTF will get the trip no problem IMO - the best horses can operate over a range of distances effectively and he's got the cruising speed to comfortably handle the pace set.

But he's probably put up the best 2 and a half mile performance that will happen this season (the Ryanair winner won't beat a better field than that) and arguably his best performance last year was over 2 and a half beating Gaelic Warrior. I'd argue that was better than any other performances last season over that trip and would have been enough to win the Ryanair. The Ryanair is still a possibility, especially if he gets turned over at Xmas, but I'd hope we get the big clash in the Gold Cup.

[Wayward Lad]

I think FTF will get the trip no problem IMO - the best horses can operate over a range of distances effectively and he's got the cruising speed to comfortably handle the pace set.

But he's probably put up the best 2 and a half mile performance that will happen this season (the Ryanair winner won't beat a better field than that) and arguably his best performance last year was over 2 and a half beating Gaelic Warrior. I'd argue that was better than any other performances last season over that trip and would have been enough to win the Ryanair. The Ryanair is still a possibility, especially if he gets turned over at Xmas, but I'd hope we get the big clash in the Gold Cup.

It’s difficult enough with Willie Mullins Bingo each year, but now we have JP Bingo, as this season he has a fair few quality staying chasers and we know he loves Cheltenham so there’s a good chance all will run at the festival? ..…just need to decide which race !

FTF
Corbetts Cross
Spillanes Tower
I Am Maximus
Inothewayyourthinkin

[ComplyOrDie]

I think the Gold Cup chat is in the wrong thread, chaps

[Exar Essay]

There’s been a sizeable bet on Majborough - Arkle on BFX.

[ComplyOrDie]

There’s been a sizeable bet on Majborough - Arkle on BFX.

Willie mentioned the Arkle for him as a potential target.

Makes sense to go down this route, IMO.

I think he can win some raced whilst he gets the allowance, but may be found out come the festival, personally.

[Quevega]

There’s been a sizeable bet on Majborough - Arkle on BFX.

it was discussed on here a few weeks ago and I was firmly on the side of the arkle for this horse if he went novice chasing and could not really fathom why he was much shorter for the other race.
Just did not make sense that he would go 3 miles as a 5 yr old. Willie seemed to frank this in the latest stable tour.

It seems like JP has now got behind this, with mystical set to stay over hurdles.

On a line through Kargese (who settled slightly better at cheltenham than at aintree (probably the long straight)) - Majborough has been overlooked.

Because when you look at Sir Gino's odds for the arkle prior to him reverting for saturday (at least) then for Majborough to still be 33-1 earlier this week was true value IMO.
So was the 400+ to one for the champion hurdle.

On paper he is at least as good a horse as Sir Gino, and with a better trainer.