2025 Novice Chasers

[darlojim]

Spot on COD. Need him covered.

at 6/1 EW? Is he an EW shot to nothing?

potentially Ballyburn, IEP, ITP to contend with

Not to mention horses that could turn up also

Maj/Slade steel/Jeriko

Absolute standout in the Arkle market atm is Impaire et Passe - everyone has to get up to his ratings in the market, not the other way round (aslong as he can jump obv)

[Lobos]

Agree. Wouldn't back him now at 6's.

[ComplyOrDie]

at 6/1 EW? Is he an EW shot to nothing?

potentially Ballyburn, IEP, ITP to contend with

Not to mention horses that could turn up also

Maj/Slade steel/Jeriko

Absolute standout in the Arkle market atm is Impaire et Passe - everyone has to get up to his ratings in the market, not the other way round (aslong as he can jump obv)

Two boxes ticked for Firefox.

His aim is the Arkle
He can jump a fence

Inthepocket can also jump a fence but his target is less clear. Henry non-commital on that.

Ballyburn is a woeful price given most recent comments.

Agree about IEP, and I fully expect him to be shorter than Firefox once we know he can jump a fence.

For now though the only horse seemingly committed to the Arkle that has been out and jumped a fence in public is Firefox, and for that he's an E/W bet to nothing, IMO.

[darlojim]

Two boxes ticked for Firefox.

His aim is the Arkle
He can jump a fence

Inthepocket can also jump a fence but his target is less clear. Henry non-commital on that.

Ballyburn is a woeful price given most recent comments.

Agree about IEP, and I fully expect him to be shorter than Firefox once we know he can jump a fence.

For now though the only horse seemingly committed to the Arkle that has been out and jumped a fence in public is Firefox, and for that he's an E/W bet to nothing, IMO.

It's really only the first weekend of the national hunt season so obviously plenty horses haven't yet shown their cards yet as to whether they can jump etc.

Surely better just sitting on your hands until at the very least Firefox's next entry? He isn't going to shorten anymore between now and then i'd have thought? And then by then, you may have a better understanding of potential opponents

Tying up stake EW on a 6/1 shot 4 1/2 months in advance of the festival is mad to my eyes but each to their own mate.

Henry loves an Arkle runner so you'd be almost guaranteed 1 of ITP or Slade steel will be in the race, and with good chances too so that kind of whittles the place terms down to 2 effectively, without taking in any of the Mullins ammo, and he's sure to have at least a couple of good darts in the race this season with there only being the 2 g1 novice chases.

For all Ballyburn is a poor price, that doesn't directly affect how he would go in the Arkle itself, I'd have it long long long odds on at least him or IEP will take up one of the place slots

[ComplyOrDie]

Tying up stake EW on a 6/1 shot 4 1/2 months in advance of the festival is mad to my eyes but each to their own mate.

You could argue this for a lot of horses, most of which we havent even seen yet.

I'd rather back a horse that's been out and has a target at 6/1 than something that hasn't with no idea on target.

I appreciate it's early in the season.

Henry loves an Arkle runner so you'd be almost guaranteed 1 of ITP or Slade steel will be in the race, and with good chances too so that kind of whittles the place terms down to 2 effectively, without taking in any of the Mullins ammo, and he's sure to have at least a couple of good darts in the race this season with there only being the 2 g1 novice chases.

Agree about Henry's runners, doesn't mean Firefox won't improve past Slade Steel over fences though.

IEP or Ballyburn would rank number one if either or both turn up, assuming they jump a fence. But it takes one error on the day or a stone bruise leading up and suddenly Firefox is there with a real chance.

For all Ballyburn is a poor price, that doesn't directly affect how he would go in the Arkle itself, I'd have it long long long odds on at least him or IEP will take up one of the place slots

It affects it if he doesn't even turn up for the race though. So not only do we not know what discipline he is going over, we don't even know what trip, and that's before we see him jump a fence in public (assuming they go chasing).

[darlojim]

You could argue this for a lot of horses, most of which we havent even seen yet.

I'd rather back a horse that's been out and has a target at 6/1 than something that hasn't with no idea on target.

I appreciate it's early in the season.



Agree about Henry's runners, doesn't mean Firefox won't improve past Slade Steel over fences though.

IEP or Ballyburn would rank number one if either or both turn up, assuming they jump a fence. But it takes one error on the day or a stone bruise leading up and suddenly Firefox is there with a real chance.




It affects it if he doesn't even turn up for the race though. So not only do we not know what discipline he is going over, we don't even know what trip, and that's before we see him jump a fence in public (assuming they go chasing).

Probably something we're in disagreement about this then

Impaire et passe has already been mooted as a 2miler in the tour

RE. Firefox improving past SS, yeah thats totally plausible, but just as likely Slade steel improves for a fence too!

And likewise an error on the day or a stone bruise, Firefox isn't exempt from them either

I'd say we all kinda know where Ballyburn goes, its pretty obvious (to my mind anyway) and if you take a look at his p2p, there seems to be no issues in the jumping dept.


I'm not saying I don't like Firefox btw, I thought his chase debut was good, really good. His jumping was spot on and he'll likely come on plenty for it. I just think if you aren't on prior to his debut today, I'd be pretty strong on waiting to see how the market develops a little is a better option than to back him @ 6s EW. Is the Drinmore not a potential target next? I haven't seen any post race reports so unaware what the plans are with him, but he certainly looked fine over that trip today.

[Stormez]

To me an each way ‘bet to nothing’ means a horse that is at least nailed on to place & you’re getting a free shot at the win part. Think State Man @ 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle. For me it’s too early to say Firefox is in that category, for all it was a lovely debut.

[Carnage at Taunton]

To me an each way ‘bet to nothing’ means a horse that is at least nailed on to place & you’re getting a free shot at the win part. Think State Man @ 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle. For me it’s too early to say Firefox is in that category, for all it was a lovely debut.

Yep, at this stage SM has 2 serious rivals, Firefox has at least 4 imo

[Lobos]

Fully expecting Croke Park to get back on track tomorrow. Started his hurdles career impressively and was well fancied for Festival honours by plenty on here. Form tailed off towards the end of the season and no apparent reason found. Gordon says he was his number 1 in Albert before pulling him out and running the winner Stellar Story in his place. Clearly Gordon thought more of him than SS which says plenty. Good comments in his recent Stable Tour and he's always looked like he'd make a far better chaser. Starts off tomorrow at Fairyhouse and has his stablemate to beat who carries some decent Hurdles form into the race. Have a feeling CP could end up Gordon's best Staying Novice Chaser and the 66's on offer with B365 seem OTT and represent decent value imo. Win well tomorrow and good comments from Gordon could see those odds slashed.

[Craigy14]

I think the same as the novice hurdlers, you just have to be careful with the Giggs horses, especially with Gordon, as we know handicaps come right into play.

He seemed to bomb out on both occasions when upped to the top level, which has to be a worry for me. Whether he still had a slight issue (missed Cheltenham) at Aintree we’ll never know, nothing reported as well.

I had him backed for the AB last year but post Naas I wish I could have gotten out of it to be honest.

Watching brief for me as can’t back them all and he’s certainly not in the top 5 at the minute.

Edit - just to add, on a mark of 140 over hurdles, on ground not his best tomorrow, I’d say handicaps could be a huge play as I don’t see it a clear cut win tomorrow.

[Lobos]

As you say no harm watching tomorrow's race before making a decision about him. The price may be a fair bit lower but to be able to have a better take on him based on tomorrow's performance isn't a bad thing. He won the Monksfield Novice Hurdle and then ran in the Lawlors, two races that Gordon uses for his top hurdlers so he was clearly well thought of. Gordon said in his stable tour that he is stronger this season so he may just have done too much too soon last. Both Stellar Story and Better Days Ahead were entered for tomorrow's race but not declared so I've taken it as a good sign that CP has taken up his entry ahead of them.

[Craigy14]

As you say no harm watching tomorrow's race before making a decision about him. The price may be a fair bit lower but to be able to have a better take on him based on tomorrow's performance isn't a bad thing. He won the Monksfield Novice Hurdle and then ran in the Lawlors, two races that Gordon uses for his top hurdlers so he was clearly well thought of. Gordon said in his stable tour that he is stronger this season so he may just have done too much too soon last. Both Stellar Story and Better Days Ahead were entered for tomorrow's race but not declared so I've taken it as a good sign that CP has taken up his entry ahead of them.

Aye definitely the way I’ll be playing him if at all. Doubt he would go less than 25/1 which is still a fair bet with more info and debuts from others to then decide.

The fact he is running on ground not to his liking shall we say (thumped by you oughta know 11 lengths on yielding) then only ever ran on soft or worse, screams get a run in him first, rather than a pecking order, imo of course.

He could just be the NHC play, easily keep him under 145 with his current hurdle rating.

[Lobos]

Yep, he's one of many that could run in the NHC for Gord. A good ride for JK hopefully on his first ride back after suspension.

[DenmanSacre]

I don't think Elliott has ever started one of his good staying chasers straight over 3m on their first chase start. Trainers are creatures of habit - his top staying chasers will start out at either mid November at Fairyhouse over 2m5, Navan over 2m4 or the Galway race Search For Glory won. Let's see who he declares at Fairyhouse and Navan.

Edit

Just to follow on from this, these are the horses he's ran in those races

Galway
Search for Glory 2024
Favori de Champdou 2023
Folcano and Dunboyne 2022
The Bosses Oscar 2021
Pencilfuloflead, Coko Beach, Braeside 2020
Battleoverdoyen, Galvin 2019
Blow by Blow 2018
If you go further back, Don Cossack is in there.

Generally a race for the real stayers he has.

Fairyhouse
2023 was abandoned
Gerri Colombe 2022
Fury Road 2021
Floueur 2020
Galvin 2019
Poli Toi 2018
Woods Well 2017

Navan
American Mike 2023 (mid Nov)
Abandoned 2022
Farouk D'Alene 2021 (early Dec)
Conflated 2020


Delta Work ran in the shorter Down Royal race but not sure I've missed any of his decent stayers in recent years.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Decided to take a rather simplistic view on the two novice hurdle winners
Slade Steel Win Supreme go to Arkle
Ballyburn win Ballymore go to Arkle as imo the best nov hurdler should go to the best nov chase.
I can see them not meeting till March if (hopefully!!) they both take to fences well.
I’m not subscribing to the opinion that SS will avoid Ballyburn as he did over hurdles.Chasing whole different ball game.

I do however reserve the right to change my mind as the season develops , as often happens!!
Also not subscribing to the opinion that HDB will split his.
Not if they both prove that 2m at this stage is the best for both ITP and SS.