2025 Novice Chasers

[JackieMoon33]

Stellar Story @ 20/1 for the BANC looks a bet IMO.

The AB to BANC is a well trodden path and he's clearly very good. He beat Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter on the level. He beat Largy Hill easily in a maiden hurdle and he subsequently won twice since inc a Grade 3. He went off fav vs Supreme winner Slade Steel and finished 5L back in 3rd. He was just beaten at Limerick over 3m beating Search For Glory who then won a Grade 3. He then won the AB and jumped badly to finish 6L behind Dancing City in the Grade 1 at Punchestown.

Gordon said 'he's gorgeous and a chaser for next season' which I agree with.

He's by Shantou so I kind of expect him to be outpaced at the end of his races like he was LTO, but, when it turns into a real staying test, stay better than most. Profile wise he's lovely.

Shantou produces lots of Cheltenham winners (Ballynagour, The Storyteller, Beware The Bear, Stay Away Fay, Briar Hill, Polly Peachum, Impervious, Chianti Classico to name more recent ones) and the Dams sire produced Gold Cup winner Bob's Worth, NHC winner Back In Focus - so on paper he has lots of ticks.

Stellar Story actually went off fav in a PTP with the winner being Corbetts Cross. He unseated the rider then won his PTP before fetching 310k at the Cheltenham sales.

I love his progressive RPR's too. 128, 136, 131, 139, 151 then 145, and thats in a discipline he wasn't bred for.

Gordon has said 'He was bought to be a big staying chaser' with Jockey comments like 'all he does is stay'.

We saw that in the AB so perhaps he could be one for the NHC, but, and its an important but, Michael O'leary has been really critical of the Cheltenham changes and I can see him being stubborn and going for the Grade 1 as opposed to the NHC and it becoming a real point of contention for punters.

He is a proper stayer so he's only got the BANC and NHC as options and his mark isn't too high that Gordon couldn't get him close to the 145 ceiling. Could be an Irish National horse at some point too.

[ComplyOrDie]

He is a proper stayer so he's only got the BANC and NHC as options and his mark isn't too high that Gordon couldn't get him close to the 145 ceiling. Could be an Irish National horse at some point too.

I think Stellar Story could be one for the NHC too, if Gordon campaigns him right. I personally think Better Days Ahead is a better proposition as a BANC horse for the trainer.

[JackieMoon33]

I think Stellar Story could be one for the NHC too, if Gordon campaigns him right. I personally think Better Days Ahead is a better proposition as a BANC horse for the trainer.

Both festival winners and neither will be inconvenienced by the step in in trip. I'd expect both to be good enough to run in the BANC but have marks that they could be routed to NHC too. It's whether Gordon want's to go graded or handicap route with them. The 145 ceiling is going to be a headache as we'll all be left holding our breath as to what tax the potential Irish runners might get.

[Istabraq]

The 145 ceiling is going to be a headache

Absolutely.
It's the death of ante post punting for the race, impossible to know what route trainers will go and even if they target the race bets could get blown out the water two weeks out by the handicapper, I'd suggest it's impossible to back anything in the race until weights are out...

[JackieMoon33]

Absolutely.
It's the death of ante post punting for the race, impossible to know what route trainers will go and even if they target the race bets could get blown out the water two weeks out by the handicapper, I'd suggest it's impossible to back anything in the race until weights are out...

UK horses you've got a bit of a chance with as at least you know they won't be getting hit with any additional tax. But if the belief is that the Irish will dominate the race then it's going to be a late call indeed.

[Istabraq]

UK horses you've got a bit of a chance with as at least you know they won't be getting hit with any additional tax. But if the belief is that the Irish will dominate the race then it's going to be a late call indeed.

Yeah, not a race UK horses can win though who knows what the changes, it could produce a Midlands National winner...

[Lobos]

Definitely more runners and a more competitive event on the whole. Knowing Willie's competitiveness, PT will be getting first pick and, if he has the horses to qualify, he'll be mob handed too.

Willie will be trying hard to win his first ever Fez Chase Handicap. Unbelievable stat !!

[charlie]

He is a proper stayer so he's only got the BANC and NHC as options and his mark isn't too high that Gordon couldn't get him close to the 145 ceiling. Could be an Irish National horse at some point too.

I think Michael O’Leary has fallen out of love with the NHC. Over the last 10 years they've sent 7 runners down the NHC route between 2015-2020, with only 1 runner in the last 4 years. That was Run Wild Fred, at which point Gordon said (in November pre Cheltenham, 'I think the National Hunt Chase could be written all over this horse. Michael O’Leary might have different ideas and it’s a long time from here to March.'). He's made a point of saying in recent days 'The Cheltenham Festival should be about quality, it should be about Grade 1s and quality horses, not more boring handicaps which benefit nobody except bookmakers'. He's a bitter man who holds a grudge and I can see him living up to those words, even though the NHC isn't a Grade 1. You make a good point re the Irish National and I think the risk with Stellar Story, aside from the obvious as to whether or not he's good enough, is that he could be one of those horses that misses Cheltenham altogether. That being said, Michael O’Leary has sent 14 horses down the BANC route and it's a race they aim their better ones at. Given the level he ran to over hurdles I'd be surprised if he didn't blow a mark of 145 fairly quickly tbh. I love these expensive staying chasers that manage to win at the festival over hurdles when thats not what they were bought for. We see it lots of years. AB 1st, 2nd and 3rd turning into very decent chasing prospects the following season, albeit with a few duds thrown in. All things considered, I think 20/1 is a good price.

[JackieMoon33]

I think Michael O’Leary has fallen out of love with the NHC. Over the last 10 years they've sent 7 runners down the NHC route between 2015-2020, with only 1 runner in the last 4 years. That was Run Wild Fred, at which point Gordon said (in November pre Cheltenham, 'I think the National Hunt Chase could be written all over this horse. Michael O’Leary might have different ideas and it’s a long time from here to March.'). He's made a point of saying in recent days 'The Cheltenham Festival should be about quality, it should be about Grade 1s and quality horses, not more boring handicaps which benefit nobody except bookmakers'. He's a bitter man who holds a grudge and I can see him living up to those words, even though the NHC isn't a Grade 1. You make a good point re the Irish National and I think the risk with Stellar Story, aside from the obvious as to whether or not he's good enough, is that he could be one of those horses that misses Cheltenham altogether. That being said, Michael O’Leary has sent 14 horses down the BANC route and it's a race they aim their better ones at. Given the level he ran to over hurdles I'd be surprised if he didn't blow a mark of 145 fairly quickly tbh. I love these expensive staying chasers that manage to win at the festival over hurdles when thats not what they were bought for. We see it lots of years. AB 1st, 2nd and 3rd turning into very decent chasing prospects the following season, albeit with a few duds thrown in. All things considered, I think 20/1 is a good price.

The O'Leary factor is a strong consideration for sure. I'd agree he's likeliest runner in the BANC. 20/1 is decent enough for a previous festival winner too. Gordon and Giggy have Search For Glory and Croke Park as other possibilities and then Willie has QDB so O'Leary will likely be have a decent hand.

[Quevega]

Absolutely.
It's the death of ante post punting for the race, impossible to know what route trainers will go and even if they target the race bets could get blown out the water two weeks out by the handicapper, I'd suggest it's impossible to back anything in the race until weights are out...

We're likely to know most of the weights in plenty of time and NRNB will be around just in case of any surprises or late mark adjustments.

The old Novice Handicap was absolutely brilliant for antepost (from mid to late January onwards anyway).

I see know reason why the new NH chase handicap will be any different.
After Dublin and trails day at Cheltenham we'll have a fair idea who's likely to run I reckon.

Be quite a narrow band I reckon, the old novice handicap chase was often not much of a handicap as sometimes there was as little as 6/7 pounds between top and bottom weight.
Reasonable chance these 2 races are quite compressed also.
Although the longer distance might struggle to fill up.

[Killiney]

Gordon has a habit of testing the water with UK entries even if they don’t run in order to get a hcp mark.

[Istabraq]

We're likely to know most of the weights in plenty of time

Be quite a narrow band I reckon

Agree the band will be narrow, what I think will be interesting is the impact this race change has on the Kim Muir.

As for weights it’s still in the hands of the the handicapper what he does, but as Killiney has said Irish trainers might fish around for a mark ahead of the festival so that would help us even if it does mean a bunch of spurious entries…

[Lobos]

The O'Leary factor is a strong consideration for sure. I'd agree he's likeliest runner in the BANC. 20/1 is decent enough for a previous festival winner too. Gordon and Giggy have Search For Glory and Croke Park as other possibilities and then Willie has QDB so O'Leary will likely be have a decent hand.

Stellar Story only ran in the Albert because Croke Park was pulled. Might be something in that perhaps with regards to how they are rated at home.

[Guinness Village]

Any news on Firefox? I’d marked him down as an arkle type horse, but not heard anything and he doesn’t seem to be a forum fancy

[Yosser]

Any news on Firefox? I’d marked him down as an arkle type horse, but not heard anything and he doesn’t seem to be a forum fancy

One of my main bets the Saturday after Cheltenham finished. Had thought there would be a chance he could end up in the Turners but no chance of that now. All systems go for the Arkle i'd say. He is a big lad too with pace. He is right up there as one of the main darts. Gordon isn't afraid of taking Mullins on. I would also say there is half a chance Gordon might even leave his horses a bit undercooked like Willie did last season after seeing the Cheltenham results. He will still go to Down Royal mob handed but i reckon they won't be as fit as they usually are.