2025 Novice Chasers

[Rooster Booster]

Q is morphing into me. Love that write up.

Yep it looks like you’ve stole his log in.

[Exar Essay]

Would have to break one of the most ridiculous stats ever !!

What's that?

[Lobos]

I would like to see SS back on Soft ground as all his best form has been when the ground has been testing. It was plenty quick enough out there again today. He certainly jumped much better today bar the last and a couple where he got in a little tight.

[Lobos]

What's that?

Willie has never won a Festival handicap chase. Mental.

[Lobos]

Yep it looks like you’ve stole his log in.

He can have my large Prostate and High blood pressure as well if he likes

[Exar Essay]

Willie has never won a Festival handicap chase. Mental.

Ah right. Yes. I think that may change this year with two novice chases and a seemingly endless supply of novice chasers at his disposal.

[Eggs]

….Lecky;


“That was a good performance, I’m delighted with how he jumped and settled in front. It looks like a big improvement on his hurdling form,” said Mullins. “Fences are bringing out improvement in him and I’m very happy with that. His attitude to jumping was tremendous as well. Paul was very happy with it and I was very happy watching.

“He seemed to be able to put in quick ones and take a flier when he wanted. Generally, for a horse first time over fences, it was a very good first start. Paul was giving me the impression that he wouldn’t be afraid to go further.

“He said before the race that he thought this was his trip, I thought he might want a bit further but he thought this was the right place to start him. Maybe we’ll stay around this trip.”

[Lobos]

Lecky for the Turners then.

[Killiney]

So for this Killiney, obviously horses improve more than others for chasing

But would the jukebox man really be rated 12lbs better than DC this season?

DC readily brushed him aside at Aintree, and chase starts from both horses have been good. Hard to see say a 15lb or so turnaround, so early on?

Both horses have had just the one chase run. So it’s early days to gauge how an individual horse has improved for chasing never mind compare one against another. Nor would I want to confuse Official Ratings with RPRs. Where OR was concerned they were 150 and 148 at the end of the season. You mention the Aintree form where there was 5 1/2 l difference but at Cheltenham there was a similar difference (ie approx 7l) between them but reversed. That would indicate (to me ) that they were evenly matched over the 2 races.

Now this year DC has won a Beginners Chase with a RPR of 136 compared to TJM who won a G2 and got 148 RPR. The difference of 12 at RPR is I would suggest due to the difference in quality of the race. I would not suggest there has been a turn around of the figure you give and if or when they meet I will be using the OR not the RPR.

[Lobos]

Agree with Killiney. The race Jukebox won was a better race and was run like a better race as well. He'd be top of my list ATM for the BANC.

[nortonscoin200]

….Lecky;


“That was a good performance, I’m delighted with how he jumped and settled in front. It looks like a big improvement on his hurdling form,” said Mullins. “Fences are bringing out improvement in him and I’m very happy with that. His attitude to jumping was tremendous as well. Paul was very happy with it and I was very happy watching.

“He seemed to be able to put in quick ones and take a flier when he wanted. Generally, for a horse first time over fences, it was a very good first start. Paul was giving me the impression that he wouldn’t be afraid to go further.

“He said before the race that he thought this was his trip, I thought he might want a bit further but he thought this was the right place to start him. Maybe we’ll stay around this trip.”

Townend said: "It was good, he jumped like a buck. He didn't fly the second-last but he flew the last when I opened him up.

"He was very free last season, but hopefully he's maturing now. He had a little look at one of two of the fences but he was as straight as a dye when I wanted him to be and pulled out plenty."

On the possibility of Lecky Watson going up in trip, Townend added: "He does stay well but he likes to get on with it too. I'd say you can mix it between this kind of trip and up, rather than coming back.

"I don't think he needs to go the extremes yet anyway, but he won his maiden over close to three miles. so we know he stays as well."

[Runragged]

RPR man obviously didnt get a price on DC

I know plenty do use it as a guide as you say, but I'd say it could sometimes cloud judgement on a horse? I don't have any idea as its not something I've ever even bothered to look at, but say you fancied a horse that won well and subsequently given a really high RPR, would that make you fancy said horse more? Likewise, if you liked a horse and again horse won well, but was only given a lower RPR, would that temper enthusiasm?

Questions not directed entirely at you as you've said you don't use them as gospel, but just wondered in general.

As a strong advocate of RPRs then feel justified in answering.

AS Killiney said, it is a rating based on how horses have previously run, accounting for all the usual variables. It is generally more accurate in my mind as they are rating the race as opposed to what a horse is already rated in their handicap mark. It therefore makes it easier to compare form, especially when considering novices who wont have the back form to make them comparable.

"You are only as good as the horses you beat"

Kel Histoire is a prime example and one that I questioned immediately while people raved about him. The horse in second Dream Diamond had been beaten 18 lengths with an RPR of just 100 on his previous run. While it is clear he has improved, it is unlikely he is improved by 20lb. You then have the 4th with form as well, having got a 96 RPR on debut. They suspect he has ran to that again. Now, a lot of this is still subjective and is why they can be adjusted later on when it can be clearer how accurate the ratings are. But, it will likely be by only a handful of pounds.

Are they significant? Well, Saxon Warrior's excellent 10 year stats would suggest in a lot of cases they are. Horses need to show a certain level of ability, which often comes from the races they run in. While I use them a lot less in the handicaps, in open races they are invaluable to me.

As to the question of clouding judgement, I would say no, but it often supports what you believe anyway. It certainly makes me question a good performance however to see how good the form was. Thinking of recent examples, we have Firefox who won on debut, but with an RPR of just 135. Followed up in a grade 1 with 140. Compare that to previous Arkle winners RPR's, then excusing a massive outlier in Put The Kettle On, the lowest RPR on seasonal chase debut of winners has been 142 and 149 for the first two runs. He is 7lb and 9lb off what you would expect of the minimum. Yet he is a best price of 12/1 for the race! I have already backed him as can be seen on my blog and I will accept the loss as in my mind he cannot win the race. If you do have the option of cashing out for a loss then I would definitely suggest taking it!

[Lobos]

Personally like Timeform view over RPR's.

Majborough and Jango Baie both given the same rating of 146p with Dancing City on 142p.

[Lobos]

Other Ratings for comparison....

NOVICE CHASERS 153p INTHEPOCKET
153p L'EAU DU SUD
150 SANDOR CLEGANE
150 THREE CARD BRAG
149P BALLYBURN
148p EASY FELLA
148p ILE ATLANTIQUE
148p IMPAIRE ET PASSE
148 TOUCH ME NOT
147p CROKE PARK
147p FIREFOX
147p THE JUKEBOX MAN
147+ DOWN MEMORY LANE
147 MATTERHORN
146p BETTER DAYS AHEAD
146p GORGEOUS TOM
145 ASPIRE TOWER
145 GLORY AND FORTUNE
144 HYLAND
144 SOLITARY MAN
143p SPRINGWELL BAY

[Rooster Booster]

As a strong advocate of RPRs then feel justified in answering.

AS Killiney said, it is a rating based on how horses have previously run, accounting for all the usual variables. It is generally more accurate in my mind as they are rating the race as opposed to what a horse is already rated in their handicap mark. It therefore makes it easier to compare form, especially when considering novices who wont have the back form to make them comparable.

"You are only as good as the horses you beat"

Kel Histoire is a prime example and one that I questioned immediately while people raved about him. The horse in second Dream Diamond had been beaten 18 lengths with an RPR of just 100 on his previous run. While it is clear he has improved, it is unlikely he is improved by 20lb. You then have the 4th with form as well, having got a 96 RPR on debut. They suspect he has ran to that again. Now, a lot of this is still subjective and is why they can be adjusted later on when it can be clearer how accurate the ratings are. But, it will likely be by only a handful of pounds.

Are they significant? Well, Saxon Warrior's excellent 10 year stats would suggest in a lot of cases they are. Horses need to show a certain level of ability, which often comes from the races they run in. While I use them a lot less in the handicaps, in open races they are invaluable to me.

As to the question of clouding judgement, I would say no, but it often supports what you believe anyway. It certainly makes me question a good performance however to see how good the form was. Thinking of recent examples, we have Firefox who won on debut, but with an RPR of just 135. Followed up in a grade 1 with 140. Compare that to previous Arkle winners RPR's, then excusing a massive outlier in Put The Kettle On, the lowest RPR on seasonal chase debut of winners has been 142 and 149 for the first two runs. He is 7lb and 9lb off what you would expect of the minimum. Yet he is a best price of 12/1 for the race! I have already backed him as can be seen on my blog and I will accept the loss as in my mind he cannot win the race. If you do have the option of cashing out for a loss then I would definitely suggest taking it!

I’m not sure advising people to cash out unsolicited is a great idea as you are risking people losing a lot more than stake money if you are wrong compared to what they would lose if you provided a selection that lost. You made your argument and have used it to give an opinion on a horse that you have backed. Fair enough. You have provided backers of Firefox with some data that they can then use or not use but suggesting to others what they should do with their bets because of a view you hold is overreaching imo.

I absolutely know that we are all adults and big enough and ugly enough to make our own decisions but I for one wouldn’t want this forum to recommend unsolicited cash outs for any reason other than setbacks/ofts or not turning up type purposes. Maybe others disagree and we can introduce this new dimension if folks think it’s a good idea?