2025 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

Banging against a brick wall it seems. I'll give up now and move on to the next one...

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Banging against a brick wall it seems. I'll give up now and move on to the next one...

I'm on board Lobos. Everything you say makes sense (to me at least)

[opatcho]

I can see Slade Steel being outpaced over 2 miles and then step up into the Banc

[Lobos]

.........and then there was 3........

[Benjy23]

You're forgetting the DRF 2m novice - Ballyburn, Slade Steel and Absurde. Slightly better in quality than that Navan race...

And we did have a trixie on that!

[Istabraq]

I can see Slade Steel being outpaced over 2 miles and then step up into the Banc

He’s one I can see being trained for a sub 146 mark for a shot at the new Turners….

[charlie]

Yeah, good point. Just as good. My point is he beat the Albert winner Stellar Story in that Navan race and the Martin Pipe winner Better Days Ahead both of which are proven Stayers. Slade Steel outstayed both of them in deep ground in a hurricane. Both of those are ahead of him in the betting for the BANC. Can't believe you can still get 33/1 about Slade Steel.

Slade Steel was beaten for pace by Ballyburn at Leopardstown and again beaten for pace and just plugged on at one pace against Mystical Power at Punchestown. He looked as though he'd be beaten for toe by MP in the Supreme until the Hill and his stamina kicked in again on the run in .

Every horse has its price at 25's is ok, I was just saying that it's hard to see it as standout. If he weren't trained by HDB then I'd lean more towards it being a better bet, but we cant ignore who trains him. Yes, that race at Navan does scream stayer but it was not the best Novice Hurdle race of last season!! (do you mean pre-cheltenham/aintree??).

It's not like I don't see where you are coming from. Visually he looks like he'll stay and I watched an interview with Rob Acheson who said at the start of last season that he was adamant SS was a stayer, so there are lots of plus points to support what you are saying, for sure, but ultimately SS two best performances last season were over 2m at the DRF and Cheltenham.

If he weren't in the hands of a man who has a long standing love affair with the Arkle then id agree with you more. The changes to the Turners came out of nowhere so it's not a point we've really had to talk about before. If we hadn't have seen those changes and you were banging the drum for a 2m5f campaign then I'd be on mute because for all I think the Arkle is far more likely than the BANC IMO, I'd be equally as confident they'd lean more towards the Turners over Arkle if that were still an option.

For the best novice chasers we are now left with 2m and 3m as options and that will impact how horses are campaigned and trained. When a trainer has a Supreme winner who he thinks has loads of pace and will be better on better ground (whether you agree of disagree), its unlikely he's thinking BANC over Arkle at this stage, IMO.

For the SS lovers though he is 12/1 for the Arkle and 25/1 for the BANC so he's a price people can latch onto either way and hope for the best.

[opatcho]

I’d go as far as saying, I think Slade Steel would have given ballyburn a scare in the ballymore in the conditions we saw on the Wednesday, especially if there was a bit more condition and pace

im starting to come around to backing SS in the Banc

the arkle will be the main target at this stage but I think I’ve seen enough evidence to suggest this fella stays.

I don’t think we’ll know the answer until Jan tbh and how results pan out

[DenmanSacre]

I don't think there's any evidence Slade Steel would have got close to Ballyburn on any day. Ballyburn beat him convincingly on the flat and over hurdles already. His Supreme win is the lowest rated for years. He was lucky that the 2m novices outside of Ballyburn were awful - he'd struggle to be top 2 in a normal Supreme year.

[Quevega]

I did the reverse double back in April.
seemed obvious bet to me and we discussed on here.
Henry is likely to wait and see what ballyburn is doing first but it’s trickier this year as it’s 2 extremes so he may want to be more certain this year so he can plan races and training accordingly.
If he feels he has to have a plan then I reckon he’ll be campaigning towards an arkle.
if Willie comes out and says definitely Arkle for Bally then Henry might hedge a little.
Doubt Willie will show his cards so clearly though.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Meanwhile, L'Eau du Sud is declared to run in a 2m beginners chase at Uttoxeter. He may be one of the main hopes in The Arkle for the English come March?. He's up against Rare Edition and Uncle Bert who are both decent yardsticks. They should get a nice bit of jumping ground so hopefully no defections and no excuses..

[DenmanSacre]

Only rated 138 over hurdles. I'd imagine they'll campaign him for an attempt at the Grand Annual if he can jump. Get him out early to get the 4 chase runs in.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Only rated 138 over hurdles. I'd imagine they'll campaign him for an attempt at the Grand Annual if he can jump. Get him out early to get the 4 chase runs in.

Probably right DenmanSacre. He is trained by the handicap master. I suppose it depends how he goes in his first couple of chase starts.

[Craigy14]

Only rated 138 over hurdles. I'd imagine they'll campaign him for an attempt at the Grand Annual if he can jump. Get him out early to get the 4 chase runs in.

Possibly even the turners handicap as well, ran over 2m2f in France. Benefit of being against other novices in a limited handicap too.

[Spectre]

Options open with L'eau du Sud. If he's up to it he'll go to the Arkle, but he'll have sufficient runs for experience and a handicap option.